3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Price Will Continue Rising
Institutional money continues to flow, price volatility is subsiding, and the Federal Reserve has no plans to taper its economic relief spending—here are three reasons why the Bitcoin price will continue rising this year.
Bitcoin Hedge and Economic Relief Spending
At the conclusion of its FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the United States Federal Reserve voted to keep its key overnight interest rate near zero. The Fed also plans to keep buying $80 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month.
The Fed has effectively voted to keep interest rates near zero and doubled down on its commitment to buying massive quantities of bonds each month—continuing the same economic conditions that have aided in the parabolic price rise of Bitcoin.
This news bodes well for Bitcoin’s growing status as a new form of digital gold and a hedge against inflation drew in huge institutional investment throughout 2020, which in turn triggered a retail frenzy at the start of January. The Bitcoin price rose from a low of around $4000 on 'Black Thursday' in March 2020, to a new all-time- high of $42,500 in January 2021.
In a note to clients that were obtained by Bloomberg News earlier today, Ray Dalio, the famed founder of Bridgewater Associates called Bitcoin’s store-of-value characteristics an “amazing accomplishment” and one of the few “alternative gold-like assets at this time of rising need for them."
Dalio had previously been critical of Bitcoin as a store of value and often due to its excessive price volatility, but it appears the founder of the world's largest hedge fund, with assets under management of roughly $160 billion has changed his tune dramatically.
The man in charge of the firm trusted by institutional investors and other high-net-worth individuals to produce steady returns regardless of the market environment said to Bloomberg:
“To have invented a new type of money via a system that is programmed into a computer and that has worked for around 10 years and is rapidly gaining popularity as both a type of money and a store/hold of wealth is an amazing accomplishment.”
Like other hedge fund managers, Dalio has been critical of Bitcoin in the past. In November 2020, he criticized BTC for its excess volatility, claiming that it could never be an effective medium of exchange or store of value.
Institutional Investment Continues with MicroStrategy
Bitcoin’s dramatic rise last year was mainly attributed to big-time institutional investors such as MassMutual, Grayscale, Square, and MicroStrategy backing the cryptocurrency. With the increased institutional adoption of Bitcoin, the digital asset added over $300 billion to its ever-growing market cap in 2020.
Institutional investment looks set to continue, only today Michael Saylor CEO of MicroStrategy announced it will continue to build on its impressive trove of 70,784 Bitcoins. While most of that was purchased with excess cash, Saylor raised $650 million late last year in a debt offering to buy yet more Bitcoin.
Saylor said in MicroStrategy’s quarterly filling:
“Going forward, we continue to plan to hold our bitcoin and invest additional excess cash flows in bitcoin. Additionally, we will explore various approaches to acquire additional bitcoin as part of our overall corporate strategy.”
Additionally, as previously reported, MassMutual’s $100 million Bitcoin investment in December 2020 could be a signal that an additional $600 billion of institutional investment could be flowing into the BTC cryptocurrency's marketcap in the near future according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
According to Bloomberg on Dec. 14, 2020, JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said MassMutual’s $100 million BTC purchase suggests adoption of Bitcoin is spreading from family offices and wealthy investors to insurance firms and pension funds.
Panigirtzoglou predicts that more institutions are going to follow MassMutual’s, the JPMorgan strategist said:
“MassMutual’s Bitcoin purchases represent another milestone in the Bitcoin adoption by institutional investors. One can see the potential demand that could arise over the coming years as other insurance companies and pension funds follow MassMutual’s example.”
The JPMorgan strategist said that insurance firms and pension funds are unlikely to ever make high allocations, but even a small shift toward the cryptocurrency could be significant—with only 1% of pension funds and insurance companies in the US, euro area, UK, and Japan assets needed to accrue an additional $600 billion for Bitcoin’s marketcap.
Bitcoin Price Volatility Subsiding
Despite the increased mainstream investment into Bitcoin, the Bitcoin price has remained volatile, since hitting a record-high of $42,500 earlier this month. Following the ATH, BTC sank by nearly 30% in the following weeks. But has since recovered to the $33,000 level. Will Bitcoin forever be vulnerable to such violent price movements?
On Jan 12, Jeff Currie, the global head of commodities research for major US financial institution Goldman Sachs said that Bitcoin had started to mature but argued that long-term stability of Bitcoin’s value will depend on greater institutional adoption and smart investors.
Eric Peters, the founder, and CEO of One River Asset Management also concurred with this theory, as he told Bloomberg yesterday that Bitcoin’s path to maturity should help stabilize its price.
Peters argues that Bitcoin’s volatile price swings could become less of a concern as institutional buyers with stronger hands continue to push the asset higher.
One River Asset Management has accumulated over $600 million worth of BTC. The asset manager aims to hold $1 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) by June.
He told CNBC:
“There are all kinds of reflexive dynamics in these assets that ironically will lead to less volatility the higher they go […] As the prices are going higher, you are drawing in new types of investors with stronger hands.”
In the short term, despite reports of the surging institutional demand for Bitcoin, Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd says these investors are not enough to keep the BTC price firmly above the $30,000 level.
In an interview with Bloomberg on Jan. 28, Minerd explained that while institutions are interested in Bitcoin, there just are not enough interested yet. He said:
“Right now, the reality of the institutional demand that would support a US$35,000 price or even a US$30,000 price is just not there […] I don’t think the investor base is big enough and deep enough right now to support this kind of valuation."
Despite his seemingly bearish short-term outlook, Minerd still called BTC a viable asset in the long run. The Bitcoin price is trading at $32,850 at the time of writing, and the above three reasons could be an indication that BTC has a long way to rise in 2021.
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Institutional Demand Can’t Keep Bitcoin Above $30K Says Guggenheim’s Minerd