Bitcoin (BTC) After Geopolitical Shocks: +64.6% Average 50-Day Gain; Oil & Gold Up as Nasdaq, BTC Down — Data From André Dragosch
According to @Andre_Dragosch, oil and gold rose while Bitcoin (BTC) and the Nasdaq declined around a fresh geopolitical risk shock, signaling a near-term risk-off regime for crypto and equities (source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, https://twitter.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/2001419304827224155). He reports that across the top 20 geopolitical risk events since BTC’s inception, BTC averaged +64.6% by day 50 after the event with a +17.3% median, framing geopolitics as short-term bearish but medium-term bullish for BTC (source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, https://x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1933498166516891804). He advises planning for initial downside followed by potential medium-term upside consistent with this historical 50-day rebound pattern (source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, https://twitter.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/2001419304827224155; https://x.com/Andre_Dragosch/status/1933498166516891804).
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In the ever-volatile world of cryptocurrency trading, recent insights from financial analyst André Dragosch highlight a crucial pattern during geopolitical risk events. As oil and gold prices surge while Bitcoin and NASDAQ indices dip, this market dynamic reveals short-term bearish pressures but points to medium-term bullish opportunities for BTC. Dragosch emphasizes that these events often lead to increased money printing by central banks, ultimately supporting assets like Bitcoin. This perspective is particularly relevant for traders monitoring Bitcoin price movements, as it underscores the resilience of BTC amid global uncertainties.
Geopolitical Risks and Bitcoin's Historical Performance
Delving deeper into the data shared by André Dragosch, across the past top 20 geopolitical risk events since Bitcoin's inception, BTC has shown remarkable recovery. On average, Bitcoin was up 64.6% just 50 days after such events, with a median increase of 17.3%. This statistic is a game-changer for cryptocurrency traders, suggesting that dips during crises could be prime buying opportunities. For instance, if we consider current market sentiments without specific timestamps, traders should watch for support levels around recent Bitcoin lows, potentially around $60,000 to $65,000, based on historical patterns. The correlation with NASDAQ downturns also implies that stock market volatility spills over into crypto, creating cross-market trading strategies where hedging with gold or oil futures might complement BTC positions.
Trading Strategies Amid Short-Term Bearishness
For those engaged in Bitcoin trading, the short-term bearish impact of geopolitical tensions means monitoring trading volumes and on-chain metrics closely. High trading volumes during dips often signal capitulation, followed by bullish reversals as money printing ramps up. Traders could look at pairs like BTC/USD or BTC/ETH to gauge relative strength, aiming for entries when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dips below 30, indicating oversold conditions. Institutional flows, such as those from Bitcoin ETFs, tend to accelerate post-event, driving prices higher. This medium-term bullish outlook encourages holding through volatility rather than panic selling, with potential resistance levels at $70,000 if bullish momentum builds.
Moreover, the broader implications for the stock market, particularly NASDAQ, tie into crypto through tech-heavy correlations. As geopolitical risks fade, the influx of liquidity from money printing boosts risk assets, including AI-related tokens that often mirror NASDAQ trends. Traders should consider diversified portfolios, incorporating Ethereum or Solana alongside BTC, to capitalize on these rebounds. Historical data supports planning for gains, but always with risk management like stop-loss orders to navigate any prolonged downturns.
In summary, André Dragosch's analysis provides a roadmap for navigating geopolitical turbulence in cryptocurrency markets. By focusing on the 'short legs' of bearish phases and the inevitable path to more money printing, traders can position themselves for substantial upside in Bitcoin and related assets. This insight not only optimizes trading decisions but also highlights the interconnectedness of global markets, urging a proactive approach to volatility for long-term gains.
André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
@Andre_DragoschEuropean Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.