PrimeXBT Analysis: Bitcoin Hash Rate Sets New ATH, Fundamentals Scream Buy The Dip
In stocks, company profit margins and operating expenses are top priorities in fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis in forex currencies could involve looking at each nation's GDP or country's political health. Commodity fundamental analysis looks at supply, demand, and environmental factors.
In stocks, company profit margins and operating expenses are top priorities in fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis in forex currencies could involve looking at each nation's GDP or country's political health. Commodity fundamental analysis looks at supply, demand, and environmental factors.
But when it comes to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, fundamental analysis is vastly different. It involves terminology unusual to finance like hash rates, proof-of-work consensus algorithms, block reward halvings, and all kinds of bizarre barometers of network health.
However, these measurements, when combined with technical analysis, can be extremely telling about where Bitcoin is in its current market cycle. And with the current state of the Bitcoin network along with pure technicals closely mimicking the previous bull market breakout, the latest dip in the cryptocurrency could be the last opportunity of a lifetime to "buy the dip."
PrimeXBT analysts have put together a compelling case as to why Bitcoin fundamentals are more bullish than ever, and how technicals back up the bullish momentum. Here are all the crucial factors to carefully consider before taking any position in the crypto market.
Bitcoin Network Healthier Than Ever, Crypto Fundamentals Could Fuel Rapid Rise
News broke this week that Bitcoin's hash rate, the unit of measurement representing the combined processing power of all of the miners contributing to securing the Bitcoin network, reached a new all-time high.
Not only that, but the critical metric surged some of the largest it ever has week over week, all while Bitcoin price plunged over $2,000. Despite the drop, there are very few – if any – signals in Bitcoin charts, fundamental, technical, or otherwise, that would suggest more bearish downside.
The increase in hash rate could signal more miners are getting into Bitcoin with it becoming a more profitable venture once again. Miners could also be building up their processing power ahead of the next bull market to remain competitive. Whatever the reason, the cryptocurrency's hash rate skyrocketing is anything but bearish.
A moving average tool based on Bitcoin's hash rate and mining difficulty called the hash ribbons were developed by crypto fundamental expert Charles Edwards, who used the tool to signal when miners are capitulating. More importantly, the tool also signals when this process is over, which has thus far been the most lucrative buy signal in Bitcoin history. That signal just triggered again.
Stock-To-Flow's Time To Shine, Or Else It May Be Time For Plan C
Much of Bitcoin's value and even its recent bullish momentum are due to its hard-coded digital scarcity. The max Bitcoin supply is 21 million BTC, and even less exist due to what's currently circulating and what's been lost forever.
In an attempt to affix a valuation based on this scarcity, regularly adjusted for Bitcoin's reducing block reward that cuts the BTC supply miners receive in half every four years, a pseudonymous analyst named Plan B has developed what's called the stock-to-flow model.
The stock-to-flow model is one of the most important, realistic, yet polarizing valuation methods available for Bitcoin. Those vehemently opposed to the model argue that Bitcoin market cycles are lengthening, while those that subscribe to the theory believe that the halving causes bull runs.
According to the theory, lower supply entering the market caused demand to outweigh supply and the asset's valuation to take off like a rocket after each halving. Bitcoin's halving is now months in the past, and although the asset is climbing, we haven't seen the same explosion as the last bull market. However, as fundamentals are signaling, that's what could lie next in the crypto market. If not, and "Plan B" fails, "Plan C" could stand for "crash" if investors suddenly stop believing in the theory and sell in a panic.
Bitcoin Technicals Support Fundamental Growth And New Uptrend
Failure here, however, is unlikely, as fundamentals suggest. And backing up the strong fundamental signals in Bitcoin are just as powerful technical patterns.
Technical analysis is a practice designed to increase the probability of success by predicting market movements based on patterns and other signals. Various indicators also are used to predict Bitcoin going up or down or even sideways.
The current technical structure on monthly timeframes shows a massive, multi-year symmetrical triangle breakout out of its resistance and confirming that resistance line as support. There is also a bullish retest of horizontal support taking place at the exact same time. Both of these key levels are holding up, post-halving, just like the last market cycle. And both cycles formed the same type of pattern – which is typically a bullish continuation pattern.
Long Bitcoin With PrimeXBT And Ride With The Cryptocurrency Bulls
After the breakout and retest of support turned resistance, Bitcoin price rallied from $1,000 to $20,000 in just over a year. Technical analysis is not an exact science, but statistics show that in more than half of all patterns at 63%, break out to the upside. If the movement prior to the symmetrical triangle was upward before the formation, that number increases to 89% of cases.
81% of all symmetrical triangle bullish breakouts reach their projected measured move target. In Bitcoin's case, the target is well over $100,000 per BTC – matching with some expert Bitcoin price predictions and valuation-based projections such as the stock-to-flow model.
If this is the case, taking a long position on Bitcoin using a cryptocurrency margin trading platform such as PrimeXBT could end up being a trade of a lifetime. Past results don't necessarily guarantee future performance, and an unusual amount of risk hangs over markets that could suggest this time is different than the last.
However, if history repeats and the halving theories such as stock-to-flow are proven correct, this recent crash could be the last dip ever. Analysis from the award-winning PrimeXBT shows Bitcoin fundamentals and technicals healthier and more bullish than Bitcoin has been in the previous three years. So long as proper risk management strategies are considered and followed, the upside reward could ultimately be worth the risk.
PrimeXBT offers long and short positions on CFDs for crypto, forex, stock indices, and commodities, along with all of the risk management tools to take a chance with Bitcoin. Traders unsure exactly how to approach positioning themselves can also follow other more skilled traders through PrimeXBT's newly launched Covesting copy trading module.
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