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Just In: US PCE Price Index Rises, Exceeding Core Forecasts; Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Show Mixed Reactions

Rebeca Moen   Aug 31, 2023 13:05


The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key indicator of inflation, has once again shown an uptick, according to the latest data. The year-over-year PCE Price Index rose to 3.3%, aligning with forecasts but exceeding the previous month's 3.0%. The Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also saw a year-over-year increase to 4.200004%, slightly above the forecast of 4.2% and the previous rate of 4.1%.

Month-over-Month Data Holds Steady

On a month-over-month basis, both the PCE Price Index and Core PCE Price Index remained stable at 0.2%, meeting forecasts and matching the previous month's figures. The data suggests that inflationary pressures are not easing, a concern for policymakers and consumers alike.

Implications for Monetary Policy

The Federal Reserve closely monitors the PCE Price Index as it considers adjustments to monetary policy. The latest figures may put pressure on the Federal Reserve to reconsider its stance on interest rates, especially given the Core PCE Price Index's slight exceedance of forecasts.

Cryptocurrency Markets React

In the wake of the data release, cryptocurrency markets showed moderate fluctuations. Before the news, Bitcoin surged to around $27,600 but then quickly dropped to $27,063. At the time of writing, the price is hovering around $27,200. Interestingly, meme coins like Shib Inu ($SHIB) and Pepe have shown resilience, outperforming Bitcoin in the immediate aftermath of the PCE data release.

Historically, periods of high inflation have led to increased interest in cryptocurrencies as alternative stores of value. However, the market's reaction was subdued, possibly due to the alignment of the PCE Price Index with forecasts.

Economic Context

The persistent inflation indicated by the PCE Price Index comes amid ongoing supply chain disruptions and labor market imbalances, factors that have been contributing to inflationary pressures for several months. The Core PCE Price Index's year-over-year increase further underscores the broad-based nature of current inflationary trends.

What's Next?

The forthcoming set of PCE Price Index figures will be under intense scrutiny by both economists and government officials. They aim to determine if the current inflationary trend is a short-lived occurrence or a more deeply rooted problem. How the Federal Reserve reacts to this data will significantly influence the economic landscape in the near future.


Image source: Shutterstock

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