According to @KobeissiLetter, US non-AI corporate distress is rising, with 9 Chapter 7 filings by companies carrying liabilities of at least USD 100 million so far in 2025, marking the fourth-highest annual pace on record (Source: @KobeissiLetter, Dec 2, 2025). The same source reports there were 13 and 11 such large bankruptcies in 2023 and 2024, respectively (Source: @KobeissiLetter, Dec 2, 2025). Research finds crypto has become tightly linked with broader risk sentiment, with Bitcoin’s correlation to US equities rising significantly in recent years, making BTC and ETH more sensitive to macro risk-off conditions (Source: International Monetary Fund, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 2022). To monitor potential spillovers, traders often track US high-yield credit stress via the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread and liquid proxies such as HYG and JNK, alongside equity volatility via the Cboe VIX and BTC/ETH correlations to the S&P 500 (Source: ICE Data Indices; iShares HYG fund description; SPDR JNK fund description; Cboe VIX overview).

According to @lisaabramowicz1, annual US corporate bankruptcy filings are on track to be the highest since 2010, signaling rising default risk into year-end. Source: https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1989064017693073491 S&P Global Market Intelligence reports bankruptcies ticked up in October, pushing annual filings near a 15-year high in 2025. Source: https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/11/us-corporate-bankruptcies-tick-up-in-october-annual-filings-near-15-year-high-94917533 The update highlights that more 'isolated incidents' could emerge, including in software, underscoring sector-specific credit stress to monitor. Source: https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1989064017693073491 Rising corporate distress is historically associated with wider US high-yield credit spreads and tighter financial conditions, a risk-off backdrop for equities and other risk assets. Source: Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report, October 2023, https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2023-october-financial-stability-report.htm For crypto markets, higher risk aversion has been linked to stronger co-movement between BTC, ETH and equities, implying potential volatility spillovers during credit stress. Source: IMF blog "Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks," 2022-01-11, https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-stocks-risk-of-contagion-rises