According to Eric Balchunas, U.S. equity futures show no signs of stress with the S&P 500 (SPX) a bit higher in pre-market trading; source: Eric Balchunas, Twitter, Jan 4, 2026.

According to Charlie Bilello, the S&P 500 is trading at 3.3 times sales, the highest valuation on record as of Jan 4, 2026, source: Charlie Bilello on X. Elevated valuation multiples have historically been linked with lower subsequent long-horizon equity returns, signaling higher valuation risk for SPX exposure, source: Campbell and Shiller, Journal of Portfolio Management 1998 and Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report 2024. For crypto traders, equity to crypto spillovers matter because Bitcoin BTC and U.S. equities have shown persistent positive return correlations since 2020, source: IMF Global Financial Stability Note 2022 Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks and Coin Metrics correlation reports 2020 to 2022. During equity stress, volatility hedges such as the VIX, which typically moves inversely to the S&P 500, are widely monitored alongside crypto risk metrics to manage drawdowns, source: Cboe VIX education and Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report 2024.

According to @charliebilello, since 1928 the S&P 500 has delivered roughly 10% average annual returns while enduring an average intra-year drawdown of about -16%, underscoring that long-term upside has historically come with sizable pullbacks; source: @charliebilello on X and bilello.blog/newsletter. Traders can frame SPX risk budgets around the historical -16% intra-year drawdown profile when assessing position sizing and stop distances during uptrends; source: @charliebilello on X and bilello.blog/newsletter. Because Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities rose markedly after 2020, equity drawdowns have increasingly coincided with downside in BTC and ETH, making SPX weakness a relevant risk signal for crypto leverage and hedging; source: International Monetary Fund, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync with Equities, Jan 2022.

According to Charlie Bilello, the S&P 500 dividend yield finished the year at 1.15%, the lowest level since 2000 (Source: Charlie Bilello, X, Jan 2, 2026). This multi-decade low in equity income is a key input for traders evaluating cross-asset return profiles and risk appetite across stocks and crypto markets (Source: Charlie Bilello, X, Jan 2, 2026).

According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 registered 39 additional all-time highs in 2025, confirming persistent strength in US large-cap equities (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 31, 2025). For trading, clusters of new highs typically align with momentum and positive return autocorrelation that trend-following strategies seek to exploit (sources: Jegadeesh and Titman 1993; Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen 2012). Since 2020, crypto assets have shown higher co-movement with US equities, meaning sustained SPX risk-on regimes can coincide with tailwinds for BTC and ETH beta exposure (sources: IMF research by Adrian, Iyer, and Qureshi 2022; BIS Quarterly Review 2022). Traders can watch volatility compression and breadth as confirmation, such as VIX levels for risk appetite and the prevalence of 52-week highs as a breadth signal, and then check BTC–equity rolling correlations for potential spillover (sources: Cboe VIX methodology; George and Hwang 2004 on 52-week-high momentum; IMF 2022 on rising crypto–equity correlations).

According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 ended 2025 up 17.9% on a total-return basis including dividends, exceeding nearly all expectations for the third straight year (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 31, 2025; bilello.blog/newsletter). No crypto or sector breakdowns were provided in the source, but the verified SPX year-end total return offers a clear benchmark for traders evaluating equity performance into year-end rebalancing and attribution (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 31, 2025).

According to Charlie Bilello, the S&P 500 (SPX) ended 2025 up nearly 18%, exceeding broad expectations and offering a strong risk backdrop that many crypto traders track as a macro signal for cross-asset sentiment (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 31, 2025; bilello.blog/newsletter).

According to @KobeissiLetter, a Friday note called for a move into 6900+ by year-end and they now report the S&P 500 at record highs with $SPX longs up about +110 points on this move, source: @KobeissiLetter on X, Dec 24, 2025. For cross-asset traders, equity breakouts have historically coincided with stronger crypto risk appetite in several regimes, with BTC’s rolling correlations to U.S. equities rising during risk-on phases, source: Kaiko Research 2023 Market Structure Review; Coin Metrics State of the Network 2022–2023. Key read-through: sustained SPX momentum typically aligns with improved crypto spot liquidity and tighter spreads, aiding BTC and ETH execution during risk-on windows, source: Kaiko Liquidity Metrics 2023.

According to @StockMKTNewz, the S&P 500 (SPX) has officially hit new all-time highs, confirming a fresh record on the index [source: @StockMKTNewz]. The source post provides only the headline confirmation with no additional price levels, timing detail, or closing data, indicating traders have headline-only information at this time [source: @StockMKTNewz]. For crypto-focused traders, the source does not mention BTC, ETH, or any cross-asset implications, and no crypto market impact is provided in the post [source: @StockMKTNewz].

According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 was down over 15% year to date on April 8 (the 4th worst start on record) but then rallied 38%, leaving it up 17% YTD and notching 37 all-time highs in 2025, highlighting a powerful momentum regime for risk assets, source: @charliebilello on X. IMF research documented a marked rise in BTC–S&P 500 co-movement since 2020, indicating that strong equity momentum can have greater relevance for crypto market risk and spillovers, source: IMF Blog by Tobias Adrian, Tara Iyer, and Mahvash S. Qureshi, January 2022.

According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 fell 1.2% yesterday, marking the 29th session in 2025 with a decline greater than 1%, which he notes is in line with the long-term average of 29 such large down days per year, highlighting that downside volatility is a normal feature of markets (source: Charlie Bilello). For trading, this means equity risk remains elevated but not abnormal, and positioning should account for routine large swings in SPX that can affect cross-asset risk appetite (source: Charlie Bilello). Crypto traders should note that equity selloffs have historically coincided with higher BTC–SPX return co-movements; IMF research documented that the BTC–S&P 500 daily return correlation rose from near zero in 2017–2019 to about 0.36 in 2020–2021, indicating higher spillover risk during risk-off episodes (source: IMF, 2022, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks). Monitoring the Cboe VIX, which measures expected SPX volatility, alongside BTC and ETH can help manage beta and leverage when equity downside accelerates (source: Cboe Global Markets; IMF, 2022).

According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high in less than three months after the April bear-market lows, marking the second-fastest recovery for U.S. stocks in 75 years after 1982 (source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 8, 2025). Crypto traders monitor this risk-on momentum because Bitcoin and U.S. equities showed sustained positive correlations in recent cycles, making SPX breakouts a relevant cross-asset signal for BTC and ETH positioning (source: Glassnode, The Week On-chain correlation analyses, 2022–2023).

According to @charliebilello, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has shrunk 24% over the past three years while the S&P 500 has advanced 82%, indicating the SPX rally has persisted during quantitative tightening, not QE, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 7, 2025. He adds this dispels the myth that the stock market is dependent on QE to rise, a data point equity traders can use when evaluating SPX trend drivers in a QT environment, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 7, 2025.

According to Charlie Bilello, the S&P 500 has spent 92% of its history in a drawdown, indicating pullbacks are the baseline condition rather than an anomaly (source: Charlie Bilello, X post dated Dec 5, 2025). He states that markets do not require perfection to move higher; sustained advances are driven by earnings growth and time, leading to repeated recoveries after declines (source: Charlie Bilello, X post dated Dec 5, 2025; YouTube video linked in the post). He adds that every drop carries an “end of the world” narrative, but the comeback is the most reliable part of the story, reinforcing trading frameworks that align with earnings trends and patience during drawdowns (source: Charlie Bilello, X post dated Dec 5, 2025). No cryptocurrency-specific impact or cross-asset commentary was discussed in the post (source: Charlie Bilello, X post dated Dec 5, 2025).

According to @StockMKTNewz, the combined market capitalization of the S&P 500 has risen back above 60 trillion dollars. Source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Nov 29, 2025. Crypto market depth and trading volumes tend to concentrate during U.S. trading hours when the equity market is most active, making SPX moves relevant for BTC and ETH liquidity. Source: Kaiko Research, 2024 analysis of intraday liquidity by region. BTC’s rolling correlation with the S&P 500 has frequently approached zero in 2023–2024, limiting reliable directional read-throughs from equity milestones and emphasizing a liquidity-focused approach. Source: Kaiko Research, 2024 correlation metrics.

According to @CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed 90k, while the day’s standout performance focus shifted to SPX and Kaspa (KAS). Source: CoinMarketCap on X, Nov 28, 2025. The source adds that traders spent the session debating whether the moves signaled genuine rotation or mere noise, with a full breakdown available in its community post. Source: CoinMarketCap on X, Nov 28, 2025; CoinMarketCap Community post (coinmarketcap.com).

According to @OnchainLens, citing @nansen_ai on-chain data, a whale bought 4.68M SPX at an average price of $0.697 over the past 2 days using $3.27M in USDC and USDT, and the address still holds $3.22M in stablecoins with the source noting it is likely to buy more. Sources: @OnchainLens; Data: @nansen_ai.

According to @52kskew, SPX and NDX rallied into mid-week with clean rebounds off the 200EMA on 4H charts, indicating active dip demand at that moving average support, source: @52kskew. According to @52kskew, SPX, NDX, and RUT have high-importance downside levels where renewed demand is needed to keep volatility suppressed, source: @52kskew. According to @52kskew, volatility shows clear sensitivity above VIX 20, a known risk trigger traders monitor for risk-on/off shifts, source: @52kskew. According to @52kskew, a sustained break above VIX 20 would be a risk trigger that can cap demand, a cross-asset threshold crypto traders can track when managing BTC and ETH exposure, source: @52kskew.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the S&P 500 closed up 0.7% today, with total market cap rising by approximately $2.5 trillion since last week’s low. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Nov 26, 2025. Historically, higher U.S. equity performance has coincided with stronger crypto returns due to a positive, time-varying BTC–S&P 500 correlation observed in 2020–2022. Source: IMF blog by Iyer, Le Roux, and Papageorgiou, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 2022. U.S. stock markets observe Thanksgiving closures while crypto trades 24/7, so any crypto price action in BTC and ETH can unfold while equities are shut. Source: NYSE Holiday Calendar 2025; Binance Academy, Cryptocurrency markets trade 24/7.

According to Charlie Bilello, the S&P 500 fell 1.6% yesterday, marking the 27th daily decline in 2025 with a loss greater than 1% (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 21, 2025). According to Charlie Bilello, the long-term average since 1928 is 29 such large daily declines per year, indicating that recent downside volatility is within historical norms rather than extreme conditions (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Nov 21, 2025). According to Binance Research, BTC and US equities have shown periods of positive correlation, meaning equity volatility can transmit risk sentiment into crypto markets, a key consideration for BTC and ETH traders during SPX drawdowns (source: Binance Research, 2024).