May 6: You Snooze You May Not Lose
$9,000 continues to pin Bitcoin down, leaving it to trade in a narrow $300 range for the past 48 hours. Eethereum also rather lackluster, having traded poorly relative to BTC in the last few sessions as halving looms. For those who are unfamiliar with BTC halving, you can check my short write-up. In other news, Telegram withdrawed offers to pay investors with Gram tokens.
With Trump now back to igniting tensions with the Chinese, risk assets continue to trade cautiously. There's also a debate whether re-opening for the U.S. earlier is better, but reality is nobody knows. Third, covid19 has already mutated, and if it doesn't subside in the summer, it could further mutate and potentially limit the effectiveness of vaccines. Wave 2 imminent? In such a mixed global macro backdrop, I don't see the need to FOMO, I may be wrong, but I am happy with my long core BTC positions. If it does retrace with equities, decent levels to get long will be between $8,000 to $7,000 region. Another trade idea that I've been pushing is long volatility (BTC volatility has never been this cheap to equities), buy the $9,500 to $10,000 calls that expire on 15 May post halving. Gdluck.
Lower highs, and lower lows, it does not seem like a great technical picture for a breakout higher, but having traded BTC for the past few years, Bitcoin can surprise.... Some levels for you to take note... $9,500 key for upside momentum and below $8,000 is a buy
BTC's volatility has never been this cheap compared to S&P 500.. Bloomberg had a great write-up on this...
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