ZEN INVESTING
No Trend, No Divergence: The Prerequisite for Identifying Exhaustion
The core principle of this lesson is "No trend, no divergence." Chan Theory strictly classifies all market movements into three states: uptrend, downtrend, and consolidation, determined by comparing successive highs and lows — both rising simultaneously signals an uptrend, both falling signals a downtrend, and a mismatch between them indicates consolidation. Divergence analysis is only meaningful after a clear trend (uptrend or downtrend) has been confirmed; within consolidation, only consolidation-type divergence exists, not trend-based divergence. All analysis must be grounded in a specific chart timeframe, since the same price action can appear as entirely different states across different levels. The validity of highs and lows must be filtered through a moving average system — only those occurring around moving average interactions (convergence, contact, or entanglement of short-term and long-term MAs) carry analytical significance at that level. Traders should choose chart timeframes that match their capital size, temperament, and trading style, and build a coherent trading system accordingly.
A Practical Walkthrough of the Moving Average Trading System: The Case of Kweichow Moutai
Previous installments laid out the theoretical framework of the moving average (MA) trading system. This article applies that framework to an actual stock — Kweichow Moutai (600519), one of China's most iconic A-share listings — to demonstrate how buy and sell signals are identified across weekly and daily timeframes. Readers are advised to pull up Moutai's weekly and daily charts from its listing date onward and follow along.
Active Protection Mechanisms in Buy Programs — Redefining Stop-Loss and Deriving Exit Rules
This paper redefines the nature of stop-loss, distinguishes between passive stop-loss and active protection paradigms, argues for exit rules based on trend state rather than profit-and-loss figures, and establishes specific protective exit conditions for each of the two previously derived buy points.
Operationalization of Moving Average Interaction Classification — Risk Systematization and Optimal Entry-Exit Point Derivation
This paper addresses the critical transition from moving average interaction classification to actionable trading decisions. By constructing a complete classification-response system, irreducible market risk is transformed into a finite set of operable scenarios. Within a dual moving average framework, two optimal buy points and two symmetric sell points are derived, forming a logically complete operational cycle.
A Taxonomy of Moving Average Interactions - The Essential Nature and Application of Technical Indicators as Market State Evaluation Systems
Technical analysis in speculative markets has long suffered two symmetrical misunderstandings: blind devotees treat it as a prophetic tool, while fierce detractors dismiss it as pseudoscience. Both positions share a fundamental misidentification of the core function of technical analysis. This essay demonstrates that the essential nature of technical indicators is that of a complete classification tool for market states. Using the moving average system as the primary example, it establishes a three-tier taxonomy of moving average interactions — skim, touch, and intertwine — derives their structural connections to trend continuation and trend reversal, and provides a systematic observational framework for the micro-level analytical work that follows.
Preference versus Examination - The Principle of Separating Subjective Bias from Objective Analysis in Speculative Markets
The most insidious cognitive trap in speculative markets is the confusion of subjective preference with objective analysis. Using the classic pattern of domestic currency appreciation triggering historic bull markets as an entry point, this essay establishes a framework separating preference from examination, derives the epistemological foundation of the operating principle "only engage what can be engaged," and demonstrates the inherently episodic nature of the investor-target relationship.
The Multiplication Principle of Multiple Independent Programs - Mathematical Foundations for Reducing Signal Failure Rates
Any single stock selection program inevitably faces signal failure, and reducing the failure rate of a single program below a meaningful threshold proves exceedingly difficult. This essay introduces the multiplication principle from probability theory for independent events, demonstrating that combining multiple mutually independent programs can compress the composite failure rate to remarkably low levels. It further discusses the construction logic for three categories of independent programs — technical indicators, relative valuation and capital flow, and fundamental analysis — along with the criteria for verifying genuine independence among them.
Input-Output Indeterminacy in Investment Analysis, Market Activity Screening, and Classification Discipline
The central dilemma of investment theory is that no deterministic causal relationship exists between analytical inputs and profit-loss outputs, yet the investor cannot bypass analytical frameworks to access results directly. Starting from this fundamental contradiction, this essay proposes market activity as the primary screening indicator, establishes a binary classification discipline for stock selection, discusses the application of various technical standards within this framework, and introduces the problem of false breakout filtration as the next critical challenge.
Bull Market Structure, Sector Rotation Rhythm, and Retail Investor Behavioral Biases: On the Phenomenon of "Gaining on the Index, Losing on the Portfolio"
"Gaining on the index while losing on one's own portfolio" is one of the most characteristic predicaments afflicting retail investors during bull markets. This essay examines the causes and countermeasures through four dimensions: the phased structure of bull markets, sector rotation rhythm, psychological biases in holding behavior, and technical criteria for sell timing. The central argument is that losses during a bull market originate not from directional misjudgment, but from ignorance of the bull market's internal rhythm and indulgence of one's own psychological weaknesses.
The Rehabilitation of Speculation and the Practical Logic of the Margin of Safety: A Case Study in Warrant Arbitrage
Within the mainstream discourse of capital markets, "investment" and "speculation" have long been assigned an artificial moral hierarchy, with the former exalted as the righteous path and the latter dismissed as reckless gambling. Yet this binary opposition is itself a discursive trap. The essential nature of the market is speculative; so-called "investment" is merely a respectable garment draped over speculative behavior.