Bitcoin BTC Trapped in $60K-$70K Range as 8.4M Coins Sit Underwater
Rongchai Wang Apr 01, 2026 15:50
On-chain data shows Bitcoin faces $80K-$126K supply overhang while long-term holders realize $200M daily losses. Marathon sells 15K BTC as corporate buying narrows.
Bitcoin continues grinding sideways between $60,000 and $70,000 with roughly 8.4 million BTC—worth over half a trillion dollars—sitting underwater, according to Glassnode's latest on-chain analysis published April 1. The data paints a picture of a market stuck in redistribution mode, lacking the catalyst needed to break either direction.
The Supply Overhang Problem
The UTXO Realized Price Distribution reveals a dense cluster of coins acquired between $80,000 and $126,000—all now held at significant losses. This overhead supply creates persistent selling pressure whenever price rallies, as underwater holders look to exit at reduced losses.
The current structure mirrors Q2 2022, when Bitcoin faced a similar redistribution challenge. Back then, roughly 3 million BTC changed hands before the market could sustainably reclaim its cycle midpoint. If history rhymes, there's still considerable churn ahead.
Long-term holders (coins held 6+ months) are actively capitulating, crystallizing around $200 million in daily losses since November 2025. Glassnode notes that a cooldown below $25 million per day would signal the exhaustion typically preceding durable bottoms.
Corporate Buyers Thin Out
The institutional bid that supported earlier cycle phases has narrowed dramatically. Marathon Digital has distributed approximately 15,000 BTC in recent months—a notable shift from accumulation to distribution. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) remains essentially the only consistent large-scale corporate buyer still stepping in.
This concentration of buying interest represents a meaningful change in market structure. The corporate treasury bid exists, but it's far less robust than when multiple firms competed to accumulate.
Derivatives Reset, Options Signal Caution
Perpetual futures markets have completely unwound their long-biased positioning. The Perpetual Market Directional Premium has compressed to neutral and slightly negative, reflecting cooled speculative appetite rather than strong directional conviction.
Options markets tell a similar story. Implied volatility has dropped across the curve—1-week ATM sits at 51%, 3-month at 49%—suggesting traders expect continued consolidation rather than explosive moves. However, the 25-delta skew remains elevated, with 1-month skew at 17.4% and 6-month at 13.2%, indicating persistent demand for downside protection.
More concerning: negative gamma is building between $68,000 and the high $50,000s. In this regime, dealers must sell into weakness, potentially amplifying any downside move toward the $60,000 level tested during February's selloff.
One Bright Spot
Coinbase spot volume delta has turned marginally positive after months of negative readings, suggesting buyers are beginning to absorb selling pressure. It's tentative—nowhere near the sustained positive flows that characterize durable lows—but it's the first constructive signal in weeks.
The market appears stuck in redistribution rather than trending. Without expanded spot demand or meaningful clearing of overhead supply, the $60K-$70K range likely remains the dominant feature until a genuine catalyst emerges.
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