TON Price Prediction: Targets $1.38 Breakout by March with Potential $2.65 Extension
Ted Hisokawa Feb 26, 2026 08:47
Toncoin trades at $1.28 with technical indicators showing oversold conditions. Key resistance at $1.38 could trigger rally toward $2.65 based on analyst projections.
Toncoin (TON) is currently navigating a critical technical juncture as it trades near key support levels. With the cryptocurrency showing oversold conditions and testing important price zones, here's our comprehensive TON price prediction analysis for the coming weeks.
TON Price Prediction Summary
• Short-term target (1 week): $1.38 (resistance breakout) • Medium-term forecast (1 month): $1.21-$1.65 range • Bullish breakout level: $1.95 (trend reversal confirmation) • Critical support: $1.21-$1.24 zone
What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Toncoin
Recent analysis from Crypto Patel on February 25, 2026, provides valuable insight into Toncoin's current positioning. According to the analyst, "Toncoin is currently inside a higher-timeframe demand zone between $1.10 and $0.80, with a key invalidation level at $0.75. A sustained break below it would weaken the bullish case."
The analyst further notes that "the level that changes the trend for TON is $1.95, which, if reclaimed, would indicate a trend reversal and a change from base building to expansion, opening the door for potential targets of $2.65, $6.90, and $15."
While specific analyst predictions are currently limited, on-chain metrics suggest TON is finding support within its established demand zone, providing a foundation for potential upside moves.
TON Technical Analysis Breakdown
The current technical picture for Toncoin presents a mixed but potentially constructive outlook. Trading at $1.28, TON is positioned between critical technical levels that will likely determine its near-term direction.
The RSI reading of 35.22 places TON in neutral territory with a slight oversold bias, suggesting potential for a relief rally. The MACD histogram at 0.0000 indicates bearish momentum is weakening, though it hasn't yet turned bullish. The extremely low Stochastic readings (%K at 4.72, %D at 3.78) signal severely oversold conditions that often precede bounces.
TON's position at 0.1030 on the Bollinger Band scale shows the token trading very close to the lower band at $1.25. This positioning near the lower boundary often indicates oversold conditions and potential support. The middle band at $1.38 represents the first significant resistance level.
The moving average alignment reveals the current downtrend, with TON trading below all major EMAs and SMAs. The 20-period SMA at $1.38 represents immediate resistance, while the 200-period SMA at $2.12 shows the longer-term resistance zone.
Toncoin Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
In the bullish case for this Toncoin forecast, a break above the immediate resistance at $1.33 would target the SMA 20 level at $1.38. A decisive break of this level could trigger momentum toward the $1.50 upper Bollinger Band.
The more significant bullish target aligns with Crypto Patel's analysis, where a reclaim of $1.95 would confirm a trend reversal. This breakthrough could open the path toward the initial target of $2.65, representing a potential 107% gain from current levels.
Technical confirmation for the bullish scenario would require: - RSI breaking above 50 - MACD histogram turning positive - Volume increase on upward moves - Sustained trading above $1.38 resistance
Bearish Scenario
The bearish case for TON centers around a break below the critical support zone between $1.21-$1.24. Such a breakdown would target the analyst's invalidation level at $0.75, representing a significant 41% decline from current prices.
Key risk factors include: - Break below $1.21 support - RSI declining toward 30 - Continued bearish MACD signals - Low trading volume during any bounce attempts
Should You Buy TON? Entry Strategy
Based on current technical levels, potential entry strategies for TON include:
Conservative Approach: Wait for a confirmed break above $1.38 with increased volume before entering, targeting $1.65 with a stop-loss at $1.24.
Aggressive Approach: Consider accumulation in the current $1.24-$1.30 range, placing stop-loss below $1.21 and targeting the $1.38-$1.50 resistance zone.
Risk Management: Given TON's daily ATR of $0.06, position sizing should account for this volatility. The critical support at $0.75 provides a longer-term invalidation level for any bullish thesis.
Conclusion
Our TON price prediction suggests the cryptocurrency is at a pivotal moment. While currently showing oversold conditions that could support a near-term bounce toward $1.38, the broader trend remains challenging until TON can reclaim the $1.95 level identified by analysts.
The most likely scenario sees TON testing the $1.38 resistance within the next week, with a successful break potentially extending toward $1.65. However, failure to hold current support levels could see prices decline toward $1.21 or lower.
Confidence level: Moderate, given the mixed technical signals and limited analyst coverage.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency price predictions are inherently speculative and subject to high volatility. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and risk assessment before making investment decisions.
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