TON Price Prediction: Targets $1.51 Recovery by Mid-February 2026
Timothy Morano Feb 11, 2026 12:05
Toncoin shows mixed signals as analysts target $1.51 recovery while technical indicators reveal oversold conditions. Key resistance at $1.38 could determine TON's short-term direction.
TON Price Prediction Summary
• Short-term target (1 week): $1.38-$1.42
• Medium-term forecast (1 month): $1.25-$1.59 range
• Bullish breakout level: $1.42 (SMA 20)
• Critical support: $1.25 (Lower Bollinger Band)
What Crypto Analysts Are Saying About Toncoin
Recent analyst sentiment on Toncoin remains cautiously optimistic despite the token's current consolidation phase. Luisa Crawford provided a notable TON price prediction on February 7, 2026, targeting a recovery to $1.51 by mid-February 2026, representing approximately 16% upside from current levels.
However, specific predictions from major crypto analysts have been limited in recent days, with most focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum amid broader market uncertainty. According to on-chain data from various blockchain analytics platforms, Toncoin's network activity has shown resilience despite the price decline, with transaction volumes maintaining steady levels.
TON Technical Analysis Breakdown
The current technical picture for Toncoin presents a mixed outlook. At $1.30, TON is trading below all major moving averages, with the RSI at 35.75 indicating neutral territory but approaching oversold conditions. This suggests potential for a relief bounce if buying pressure emerges.
The MACD histogram at 0.0000 shows bearish momentum has stalled, though it hasn't yet turned bullish. This neutral reading could indicate a potential trend change if confirmed by price action above key resistance levels.
Toncoin's position within the Bollinger Bands is particularly noteworthy, with the token trading near the lower band at $1.25. The current %B position of 0.1381 suggests TON is in the lower 14% of its recent trading range, historically a level where bounces often occur.
Key technical levels show immediate resistance at $1.34 and strong resistance at $1.38, which aligns closely with the 12-period EMA. On the downside, immediate support sits at $1.27 with critical support at the $1.25 Bollinger Band lower boundary.
Toncoin Price Targets: Bull vs Bear Case
Bullish Scenario
If Toncoin can reclaim the $1.38 resistance level, this would confirm a break above the EMA 12 and potentially trigger a move toward the 20-period SMA at $1.42. A sustained break above this level could open the path to Crawford's $1.51 target, representing the analyst's mid-February forecast.
Further upside could extend to the $1.59 level (50-period SMA and upper Bollinger Band), though this would require significant momentum and broader market support. The technical confirmation needed for this bullish scenario includes RSI moving above 50 and MACD turning positive.
Bearish Scenario
Failure to hold the $1.27 immediate support could expose Toncoin to a test of the critical $1.25 level. A breakdown below this Bollinger Band support might trigger further selling toward psychological support levels around $1.20 or lower.
Risk factors include continued broader crypto market weakness, regulatory concerns affecting the TON ecosystem, or technical breakdown below key moving averages. The 200-period SMA at $2.27 remains far above current levels, indicating the longer-term trend remains compromised.
Should You Buy TON? Entry Strategy
For traders considering Toncoin positions, the current technical setup offers defined risk-reward opportunities. Conservative entries could be considered on any bounce from the $1.25-$1.27 support zone, with stop-losses placed below $1.22 to limit downside risk.
More aggressive traders might consider scaling into positions if TON breaks above $1.34 resistance with volume confirmation, targeting the $1.42-$1.51 range for profit-taking. The daily ATR of $0.11 provides guidance for position sizing and volatility expectations.
Risk management remains crucial given TON's current position below all major moving averages. Position sizes should be modest until clearer directional bias emerges, and traders should monitor broader crypto market sentiment for additional context.
Conclusion
This TON price prediction suggests Toncoin faces a critical juncture near technical support levels. While analyst targets of $1.51 provide upside potential of 16%, the technical indicators show mixed signals that require careful monitoring.
The Toncoin forecast for the coming weeks depends heavily on the token's ability to hold $1.25 support and reclaim $1.38 resistance. Given the current RSI positioning and Bollinger Band location, a relief bounce remains possible, though sustained momentum will depend on broader market conditions and network developments.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, and prices can be highly volatile. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
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