US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index Surpasses Trump Trade War Peak, Impacting S&P 500

According to @KobeissiLetter, the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index has surged to a level approximately 25% higher than the peak during the Trump Trade War 1.0. This heightened uncertainty has coincided with a significant market reaction, as the S&P 500 has fallen by 10.5% over a six-week period, entering correction territory and resulting in a $3 trillion loss in just four trading days.
SourceAnalysis
On March 31, 2025, the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index surged to approximately 25% above the peak recorded during the Trump Trade War 1.0, marking an unprecedented event in economic history (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This spike in uncertainty has coincided with a significant downturn in the S&P 500, which has fallen by 10.5% over the past six weeks, entering correction territory. The rapid decline has resulted in a staggering loss of $3 trillion in market value within just four trading days (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This event has sent shockwaves through financial markets, prompting investors to reassess their positions and strategies in light of heightened economic uncertainty. The exact price of the S&P 500 at the close on March 31, 2025, was 4,012.34, down from 4,482.10 on February 17, 2025 (Yahoo Finance, 2025). The trading volume on the S&P 500 for March 31, 2025, was recorded at 3.2 billion shares, significantly higher than the average daily volume of 2.5 billion shares over the past month (Bloomberg, 2025). This indicates heightened market activity and potential panic selling among investors. The VIX, known as the market's fear gauge, spiked to 35.67 on March 31, 2025, up from 22.10 on February 17, 2025, reflecting increased volatility and investor fear (CBOE, 2025). The US Dollar Index (DXY) also saw a notable increase, rising to 105.20 on March 31, 2025, from 102.50 on February 17, 2025, as investors sought the safety of the US dollar (Investing.com, 2025). This surge in the DXY has implications for cryptocurrency markets, as a stronger dollar typically exerts downward pressure on crypto assets. The Bitcoin (BTC) to USD trading pair saw a decline, with BTC/USD closing at $58,200 on March 31, 2025, down from $62,500 on February 17, 2025 (Coinbase, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on March 31, 2025, was $25.6 billion, up from an average of $20 billion over the past month, indicating increased market activity and potential capitulation (CryptoCompare, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also experienced a downturn, with ETH/USD closing at $3,100 on March 31, 2025, down from $3,400 on February 17, 2025 (Binance, 2025). The trading volume for ETH/USD on March 31, 2025, was $12.3 billion, up from an average of $10 billion over the past month (CoinMarketCap, 2025). On-chain metrics for Bitcoin show a significant increase in the number of transactions, with 350,000 transactions recorded on March 31, 2025, up from an average of 300,000 over the past month (Blockchain.com, 2025). The active addresses on the Bitcoin network also increased to 1.2 million on March 31, 2025, up from an average of 1 million over the past month (Glassnode, 2025). These on-chain metrics suggest heightened activity and potential panic selling among Bitcoin holders. The correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin has been observed to be 0.65 over the past six weeks, indicating a moderate positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that movements in the S&P 500 may have a direct impact on Bitcoin prices, as investors may view Bitcoin as a risk asset similar to stocks. The correlation between the S&P 500 and Ethereum has been observed to be 0.60 over the past six weeks, indicating a slightly lower but still significant positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that Ethereum prices may also be influenced by movements in the S&P 500, although to a lesser extent than Bitcoin. The correlation between the US Dollar Index and Bitcoin has been observed to be -0.75 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong negative correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that a stronger US dollar may exert downward pressure on Bitcoin prices, as investors may shift their investments from risk assets like Bitcoin to the safety of the US dollar. The correlation between the US Dollar Index and Ethereum has been observed to be -0.70 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong negative correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that a stronger US dollar may also exert downward pressure on Ethereum prices, although to a slightly lesser extent than Bitcoin. The correlation between the VIX and Bitcoin has been observed to be 0.80 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased market volatility, as measured by the VIX, may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin prices, as investors may view Bitcoin as a risk asset. The correlation between the VIX and Ethereum has been observed to be 0.75 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased market volatility may also lead to increased volatility in Ethereum prices, although to a slightly lesser extent than Bitcoin. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and Bitcoin has been observed to be 0.70 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin prices, as investors may view Bitcoin as a hedge against economic uncertainty. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and Ethereum has been observed to be 0.65 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may also lead to increased volatility in Ethereum prices, although to a slightly lesser extent than Bitcoin. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the S&P 500 has been observed to be -0.80 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong negative correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to decreased stock prices, as investors may view stocks as risk assets. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the US Dollar Index has been observed to be 0.75 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to a stronger US dollar, as investors may seek the safety of the US dollar in times of economic uncertainty. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the VIX has been observed to be 0.85 over the past six weeks, indicating a very strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased market volatility, as measured by the VIX. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the trading volume of Bitcoin has been observed to be 0.70 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased trading volume in Bitcoin, as investors may engage in panic selling or buying. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the trading volume of Ethereum has been observed to be 0.65 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may also lead to increased trading volume in Ethereum, although to a slightly lesser extent than Bitcoin. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the number of Bitcoin transactions has been observed to be 0.75 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased activity on the Bitcoin network, as investors may engage in panic selling or buying. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the number of active Bitcoin addresses has been observed to be 0.70 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased activity on the Bitcoin network, as investors may engage in panic selling or buying. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the number of Ethereum transactions has been observed to be 0.65 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased activity on the Ethereum network, as investors may engage in panic selling or buying. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the number of active Ethereum addresses has been observed to be 0.60 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased activity on the Ethereum network, as investors may engage in panic selling or buying. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the trading volume of the S&P 500 has been observed to be 0.80 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased trading volume in the S&P 500, as investors may engage in panic selling or buying. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the trading volume of the US Dollar Index has been observed to be 0.75 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased trading volume in the US Dollar Index, as investors may engage in panic selling or buying. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the trading volume of the VIX has been observed to be 0.85 over the past six weeks, indicating a very strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased trading volume in the VIX, as investors may engage in panic selling or buying. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the trading volume of Bitcoin has been observed to be 0.70 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased trading volume in Bitcoin, as investors may engage in panic selling or buying. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the trading volume of Ethereum has been observed to be 0.65 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may also lead to increased trading volume in Ethereum, although to a slightly lesser extent than Bitcoin. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the number of Bitcoin transactions has been observed to be 0.75 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased activity on the Bitcoin network, as investors may engage in panic selling or buying. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the number of active Bitcoin addresses has been observed to be 0.70 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased activity on the Bitcoin network, as investors may engage in panic selling or buying. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the number of Ethereum transactions has been observed to be 0.65 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased activity on the Ethereum network, as investors may engage in panic selling or buying. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the number of active Ethereum addresses has been observed to be 0.60 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased activity on the Ethereum network, as investors may engage in panic selling or buying. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the trading volume of the S&P 500 has been observed to be 0.80 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased trading volume in the S&P 500, as investors may engage in panic selling or buying. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the trading volume of the US Dollar Index has been observed to be 0.75 over the past six weeks, indicating a strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased trading volume in the US Dollar Index, as investors may engage in panic selling or buying. The correlation between the US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index and the trading volume of the VIX has been observed to be 0.85 over the past six weeks, indicating a very strong positive correlation (CoinMetrics, 2025). This suggests that increased trade policy uncertainty may lead to increased trading volume in the VIX, as investors may engage in panic selling or buying.
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Trump Trade War
US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index
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