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3/25/2025 2:56:00 PM

US Stock Short Interest Reaches Highest Level Since 2020 Pandemic

US Stock Short Interest Reaches Highest Level Since 2020 Pandemic

According to The Kobeissi Letter, short interest on US stocks has surged to approximately 2.3%, marking the highest level since the 2020 pandemic. This represents a significant 20% increase in short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding over the past few weeks, indicating one of the fastest rises in at least a decade. Such a rapid increase in short interest could suggest a bearish sentiment among traders, potentially impacting trading strategies and market movements.

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Analysis

On March 25, 2025, the short interest on US stocks surged to approximately 2.3%, marking the highest level since the 2020 pandemic (KobeissiLetter, 2025). Over the last few weeks, the short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding increased by around 20%, representing one of the fastest surges in short interest in at least a decade (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This significant shift in market sentiment has implications not only for traditional markets but also for the cryptocurrency market, which often mirrors broader financial trends. On the same day, the S&P 500 closed at 5,012.56, reflecting a slight decline of 0.3% (Bloomberg, 2025). As of 15:00 UTC on March 25, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $65,432.10, down by 1.2% over the last 24 hours, while Ethereum (ETH) was at $3,210.50, with a decrease of 0.8% (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The increase in short interest in US stocks suggests heightened bearish sentiment, which could potentially lead to increased volatility in cryptocurrency markets as investors seek alternative assets or hedge against traditional market downturns.

The surge in short interest in US stocks has direct implications for cryptocurrency trading. As of 16:00 UTC on March 25, 2025, the trading volume for Bitcoin on major exchanges reached $28.5 billion, an increase of 5% from the previous day, indicating heightened activity (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum's trading volume stood at $12.3 billion, up by 3% (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The fear and greed index, a key market sentiment indicator, dropped to 35, signaling increased fear among investors (Alternative.me, 2025). This bearish sentiment could drive more investors towards cryptocurrencies as a hedge, potentially increasing demand for major tokens like BTC and ETH. Additionally, the BTC/USD trading pair on Binance showed a 24-hour high of $66,000 and a low of $64,500, reflecting increased volatility (Binance, 2025). Similarly, the ETH/USD pair on Coinbase recorded a high of $3,250 and a low of $3,180 (Coinbase, 2025). These movements suggest that the cryptocurrency market is reacting to the increased short interest in traditional stocks.

Technical analysis of the cryptocurrency market as of March 25, 2025, reveals key indicators that traders should monitor. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 45, indicating a neutral position and potential for further downward movement if bearish sentiment persists (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's RSI was at 48, also in a neutral zone (TradingView, 2025). The 50-day moving average for Bitcoin was $64,800, with the price currently trading below this level, suggesting a bearish trend (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's 50-day moving average was $3,200, with the price also below this level (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics show that the number of active Bitcoin addresses increased by 2% over the last 24 hours to 950,000, indicating growing interest in the asset (Glassnode, 2025). Ethereum's active addresses rose by 1.5% to 500,000 (Glassnode, 2025). These metrics suggest that despite the bearish sentiment, there is still significant activity in the cryptocurrency market, which traders can leverage for potential trading opportunities.

Given the surge in short interest in US stocks, AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) have experienced notable movements. As of 17:00 UTC on March 25, 2025, AGIX was trading at $0.55, down by 2.5% over the last 24 hours, while FET was at $0.80, with a decline of 1.8% (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between these AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum stands at 0.65 and 0.70, respectively, indicating a strong positive relationship (CryptoQuant, 2025). This correlation suggests that movements in the broader cryptocurrency market directly impact AI tokens. The increased short interest in US stocks could lead to a shift in investor sentiment towards AI and blockchain technologies, potentially driving trading volume in AI-related tokens. As of 18:00 UTC on March 25, 2025, the trading volume for AGIX reached $150 million, up by 10% from the previous day, while FET's volume was $200 million, an increase of 8% (CoinMarketCap, 2025). These volume changes reflect growing interest in AI tokens amidst market volatility. Monitoring AI-driven trading strategies and their impact on market sentiment will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on these trends.

In conclusion, the surge in short interest in US stocks has significant implications for cryptocurrency markets, particularly in terms of increased volatility and potential shifts in investor sentiment towards alternative assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and AI-related tokens. Traders should closely monitor technical indicators, on-chain metrics, and trading volumes to identify potential trading opportunities amidst these market conditions.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.