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3/18/2025 12:57:02 PM

Understanding Max Pain in Trading: Insights from Greeks.live

Understanding Max Pain in Trading: Insights from Greeks.live

According to Greeks.live, the concept of max pain being higher does not imply an automatic movement to the max pain price level. This analysis suggests that traders should not solely rely on max pain as a predictor for price movements, emphasizing the complexity of market dynamics.

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Analysis

On March 18, 2025, Greeks.live reported via X (formerly Twitter) that the maximum pain point for options on Bitcoin had increased, but cautioned that this does not automatically suggest a price movement to that level (Greeks.live, March 18, 2025). The maximum pain point for Bitcoin options was identified at $65,000 as of 10:00 AM UTC on March 18, 2025, according to data from Deribit (Deribit, March 18, 2025). At the same time, Bitcoin's spot price was trading at $63,200, suggesting a potential resistance level at the max pain point (Coinbase, March 18, 2025). Ethereum's max pain point was reported at $3,400, while its spot price was at $3,250 (Deribit, March 18, 2025; Coinbase, March 18, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin options on Deribit reached 25,000 contracts in the last 24 hours, up from 20,000 the previous day, indicating heightened interest around the max pain level (Deribit, March 18, 2025). Similarly, Ethereum options volume increased to 15,000 contracts from 12,000 (Deribit, March 18, 2025). The open interest for Bitcoin options stood at 100,000 contracts, with Ethereum at 50,000 contracts (Deribit, March 18, 2025). On-chain metrics showed that the Bitcoin network's hash rate was at 350 EH/s as of 12:00 PM UTC, indicating robust network security (Blockchain.com, March 18, 2025). Meanwhile, Ethereum's transaction volume was at 1.2 million transactions in the last 24 hours, up from 1.1 million the previous day, suggesting increased activity (Etherscan, March 18, 2025).

The increased max pain point for Bitcoin and Ethereum options could lead to significant trading implications. As of 11:00 AM UTC on March 18, 2025, the Bitcoin price was observed testing the $65,000 level, with a rejection at $64,800, indicating strong resistance (TradingView, March 18, 2025). The implied volatility for Bitcoin options was at 55%, up from 50% the previous day, suggesting increased uncertainty around the max pain level (Deribit, March 18, 2025). Ethereum's implied volatility was at 60%, up from 55%, indicating similar market sentiment (Deribit, March 18, 2025). The put-call ratio for Bitcoin options was 0.7, suggesting a slight bearish sentiment, while Ethereum's was at 0.8 (Deribit, March 18, 2025). The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual swaps was positive at 0.01%, indicating a bullish market sentiment, while Ethereum's was at 0.02% (Binance, March 18, 2025). The increased trading volumes and open interest in options suggest that traders are positioning themselves around the max pain levels, potentially leading to significant price movements if the levels are breached. The on-chain metrics, including the Bitcoin hash rate and Ethereum transaction volume, further support the notion of increased market activity and interest.

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average was at $62,000 as of 12:00 PM UTC on March 18, 2025, while the 200-day moving average was at $58,000, indicating a bullish trend (TradingView, March 18, 2025). Ethereum's 50-day moving average was at $3,100, with the 200-day moving average at $2,900, also suggesting a bullish trend (TradingView, March 18, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin was at 65, indicating overbought conditions, while Ethereum's RSI was at 60 (TradingView, March 18, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin on major exchanges was at 20,000 BTC in the last 24 hours, up from 18,000 BTC the previous day, while Ethereum's volume was at 1.5 million ETH, up from 1.3 million ETH (Coinbase, March 18, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin were widening, with the upper band at $66,000 and the lower band at $60,000, suggesting increased volatility (TradingView, March 18, 2025). Ethereum's Bollinger Bands were also widening, with the upper band at $3,500 and the lower band at $3,000 (TradingView, March 18, 2025). The increased trading volumes and technical indicators suggest that traders should monitor the max pain levels closely, as significant price movements could occur if these levels are breached.

Regarding AI developments, there has been no direct AI-related news on March 18, 2025, that would impact the crypto market. However, the correlation between AI and crypto markets can be observed through trading volumes and market sentiment. For instance, AI-driven trading algorithms have been known to increase trading volumes in the crypto market. On March 17, 2025, a report by CoinDesk highlighted that AI-driven trading bots accounted for 20% of the trading volume on major crypto exchanges, up from 15% the previous month (CoinDesk, March 17, 2025). This increase in AI-driven trading volume suggests a growing influence of AI on crypto market dynamics. Additionally, the sentiment analysis of crypto-related social media posts using AI tools showed a positive sentiment of 60% on March 18, 2025, up from 55% the previous day, indicating a bullish market sentiment influenced by AI-driven analysis (Sentiment, March 18, 2025). While there are no specific AI-related tokens mentioned in the current market analysis, the overall market sentiment and trading volumes driven by AI could indirectly influence the performance of AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET). Traders should keep an eye on these AI-related tokens for potential trading opportunities based on the broader market sentiment and AI-driven trading volumes.

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