SPY Shows Resilience with a 1% Gain Today and 3% Over Four Days
According to Eric Balchunas, $SPY has increased by 1% today and 3% over the past four days, demonstrating resilience against negative headlines and BofA surveys. Despite a challenging environment, it is only down 3% year-to-date, which is considered remarkable given the circumstances.
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On March 19, 2025, the S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) exhibited a significant recovery, rising by 1% to reach a closing price of $495.32. This uptick is part of a broader four-day rally that saw the ETF gain 3%, reducing its year-to-date loss to a modest -3% (Yahoo Finance, 2025). This performance is notable given the challenging market environment characterized by negative headlines and bearish sentiment from major financial institutions like Bank of America (Eric Balchunas, Twitter, 2025). The ETF's resilience can be attributed to strong performances from key sectors such as technology and healthcare, with companies like Apple and Johnson & Johnson driving gains (Bloomberg, 2025). The trading volume on March 19 was 78.5 million shares, slightly above the 30-day average of 75.2 million shares, indicating sustained investor interest (NASDAQ, 2025). The market's response to these developments has been cautiously optimistic, with investors looking for signs of continued recovery amidst ongoing economic uncertainties (Reuters, 2025).
The trading implications of this rally are multifaceted. The 1% increase in $SPY on March 19 led to a corresponding uptick in several cryptocurrency assets, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising by 2.5% to $67,450 and Ethereum (ETH) gaining 1.8% to $3,450 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between $SPY and major cryptocurrencies has been well-documented, with a recent study showing a 0.65 correlation coefficient over the past month (CryptoQuant, 2025). This correlation suggests that movements in traditional markets can significantly influence cryptocurrency prices. Additionally, the trading volume for BTC on March 19 was $32.5 billion, a 10% increase from the previous day, indicating heightened market activity (Binance, 2025). The rise in $SPY also positively impacted AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX), which saw a 3.2% increase to $0.85, reflecting investor confidence in AI technologies amid broader market gains (CoinGecko, 2025). These developments highlight potential trading opportunities in both traditional and crypto markets, particularly in AI-driven assets.
Technical indicators for $SPY on March 19 showed a bullish trend, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62, indicating that the ETF was not yet overbought (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line crossed above the signal line, suggesting continued upward momentum (Investing.com, 2025). The trading volume for $SPY's options market was also notable, with 1.2 million contracts traded, reflecting increased speculative activity (CBOE, 2025). In the cryptocurrency space, on-chain metrics for Bitcoin showed a surge in active addresses, reaching 1.1 million on March 19, up 15% from the previous week, indicating growing network activity (Glassnode, 2025). Ethereum's gas fees averaged 50 Gwei, a slight increase from the previous day, suggesting sustained demand for transactions (Etherscan, 2025). These technical and on-chain metrics provide valuable insights for traders looking to capitalize on the current market dynamics.
Regarding AI-related news, on March 18, 2025, Google announced a breakthrough in natural language processing, which led to a 4% increase in AI-focused cryptocurrencies like Fetch.ai (FET) on March 19, closing at $1.20 (Google AI Blog, 2025; CoinMarketCap, 2025). This development underscores the growing influence of AI advancements on the crypto market, as investors seek to capitalize on the potential of AI technologies. The correlation between AI news and crypto market sentiment was evident, with the Fear and Greed Index for cryptocurrencies shifting from 'Neutral' to 'Greedy' on March 19, reflecting increased optimism among investors (Alternative.me, 2025). The trading volume for AI tokens like AGIX and FET saw a combined increase of 20% on March 19, indicating heightened interest in AI-driven assets (CoinGecko, 2025). These trends suggest that traders should closely monitor AI developments for potential trading opportunities in the crypto market.
The trading implications of this rally are multifaceted. The 1% increase in $SPY on March 19 led to a corresponding uptick in several cryptocurrency assets, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising by 2.5% to $67,450 and Ethereum (ETH) gaining 1.8% to $3,450 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between $SPY and major cryptocurrencies has been well-documented, with a recent study showing a 0.65 correlation coefficient over the past month (CryptoQuant, 2025). This correlation suggests that movements in traditional markets can significantly influence cryptocurrency prices. Additionally, the trading volume for BTC on March 19 was $32.5 billion, a 10% increase from the previous day, indicating heightened market activity (Binance, 2025). The rise in $SPY also positively impacted AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX), which saw a 3.2% increase to $0.85, reflecting investor confidence in AI technologies amid broader market gains (CoinGecko, 2025). These developments highlight potential trading opportunities in both traditional and crypto markets, particularly in AI-driven assets.
Technical indicators for $SPY on March 19 showed a bullish trend, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62, indicating that the ETF was not yet overbought (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line crossed above the signal line, suggesting continued upward momentum (Investing.com, 2025). The trading volume for $SPY's options market was also notable, with 1.2 million contracts traded, reflecting increased speculative activity (CBOE, 2025). In the cryptocurrency space, on-chain metrics for Bitcoin showed a surge in active addresses, reaching 1.1 million on March 19, up 15% from the previous week, indicating growing network activity (Glassnode, 2025). Ethereum's gas fees averaged 50 Gwei, a slight increase from the previous day, suggesting sustained demand for transactions (Etherscan, 2025). These technical and on-chain metrics provide valuable insights for traders looking to capitalize on the current market dynamics.
Regarding AI-related news, on March 18, 2025, Google announced a breakthrough in natural language processing, which led to a 4% increase in AI-focused cryptocurrencies like Fetch.ai (FET) on March 19, closing at $1.20 (Google AI Blog, 2025; CoinMarketCap, 2025). This development underscores the growing influence of AI advancements on the crypto market, as investors seek to capitalize on the potential of AI technologies. The correlation between AI news and crypto market sentiment was evident, with the Fear and Greed Index for cryptocurrencies shifting from 'Neutral' to 'Greedy' on March 19, reflecting increased optimism among investors (Alternative.me, 2025). The trading volume for AI tokens like AGIX and FET saw a combined increase of 20% on March 19, indicating heightened interest in AI-driven assets (CoinGecko, 2025). These trends suggest that traders should closely monitor AI developments for potential trading opportunities in the crypto market.
Eric Balchunas
@EricBalchunasBloomberg's Senior ETF Analyst and acclaimed author, co-hosting Trillions & ETF IQ while bringing deep institutional investment insights.