According to @Andre_Dragosch, the broad rally in precious and industrial metals signals reflation, consistent with an upside move in the ISM Manufacturing Index and historically supportive of Bitcoin (BTC) bull runs, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He says BTC’s macro sensitivity is returning as long-term holder selling slows while institutions via ETPs, ETFs, and corporate treasuries continue to absorb multiple times new supply, setting up a potential rotation from gold into BTC as risk appetite recovers, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He highlights rising market-based inflation expectations, dollar devaluation, and strength across commodities and energy as confirming reflation, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He adds that gold tends to lead BTC by several months and the BTC to Gold ratio appears oversold, implying relative outperformance for BTC if ISM mean reversion persists, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He views recent lows as likely behind and expects a risk-on backdrop to power a renewed BTC rally in early 2026 amid strong institutional adoption, source: @Andre_Dragosch.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, commodity and FX signals point to a major reflation backdrop in 2026, which he believes could reignite a Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto bull market. According to @Andre_Dragosch, BTC underperformed in 2025 despite strong demand as treasury buyers and global Bitcoin ETPs absorbed multiples of new supply, with weakness driven by long term holder selling and a retail liquidation event. According to @Andre_Dragosch, roughly 90 percent of BTC’s performance variation is tied to a few macro factors led by global growth expectations and risk appetite, and macro sensitivity is returning as long term holder selling slows and institutions keep absorbing supply. According to @Andre_Dragosch, large allocations from US wirehouses and 401k channels via ETFs, plus treasury buyers such as TwentyOne alongside MSTR, indicate persistent institutional demand. According to @Andre_Dragosch, an ISM Manufacturing Index mean reversion, dollar devaluation, rising cyclical commodities, and firmer breakeven inflation are consistent with reflation and could catalyze a rotation from precious metals into BTC, with the BTC to Gold ratio underpriced and typically improving when risk appetite rises. According to @Andre_Dragosch, gold historically leads BTC by four to seven months, the lows are likely in, and early 2026 could serve as a launch pad for a renewed BTC rally as reflation tailwinds strengthen.