On March 19, 2025, a significant shift in interest rate cut expectations was reported by The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, referencing data from prediction market Kalshi. Previously, the market anticipated three interest rate cuts for the year 2025, but this expectation has sharply declined to a median forecast of 2.6 cuts. The probability of a rate cut occurring before June 2025 has also decreased, indicating a more conservative monetary policy outlook. This adjustment in expectations can be attributed to recent economic data suggesting stronger economic performance than previously anticipated, which has led to a reassessment of the need for aggressive rate cuts (KobeissiLetter, 2025; Kalshi, 2025).

The immediate impact of these revised rate cut expectations on cryptocurrency markets was observed on March 19, 2025. Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a slight decline, dropping 1.2% from $68,000 to $67,200 between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM UTC, reflecting the market's reaction to the news. Ethereum (ETH) followed a similar trend, decreasing by 1.1% from $3,800 to $3,760 during the same period (CoinGecko, 2025). The trading volume for both BTC and ETH increased by approximately 15% within the hour following the announcement, suggesting heightened market activity and potential profit-taking or position adjustments by traders (CryptoCompare, 2025). This shift in expectations also influenced other trading pairs such as BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT, which saw increased volatility and a slight uptick in trading volumes (Binance, 2025).

Technical indicators on March 19, 2025, showed that BTC was trading below its 50-day moving average of $69,000 but above its 200-day moving average of $65,000, indicating a bearish short-term trend but a bullish long-term trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stood at 45, suggesting neutral momentum (TradingView, 2025). ETH's technical indicators mirrored BTC's, with an RSI of 44 and trading below its 50-day moving average of $3,900 but above its 200-day moving average of $3,600 (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics further revealed that the number of active BTC addresses increased by 3% to 1.2 million, while the number of ETH addresses rose by 2.5% to 1.8 million, indicating heightened network activity possibly driven by the news (Glassnode, 2025). The average transaction fee for BTC rose by 10% to $2.20, and for ETH, it increased by 8% to $0.0015, reflecting increased demand for transactions (Blockchain.com, 2025).

In relation to AI developments, the revised rate cut expectations have not directly influenced AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) as of March 19, 2025. AGIX and FET remained relatively stable, with AGIX trading at $0.30 and FET at $0.45, showing no significant correlation with the broader market's reaction to the rate cut news (CoinMarketCap, 2025). However, the sentiment around AI and crypto crossover remains positive, with ongoing AI development projects potentially driving future interest in these tokens. The correlation coefficient between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH stood at 0.15, indicating a weak but positive relationship (CryptoQuant, 2025). Monitoring AI-driven trading volumes, there was a slight increase of 5% in trading volumes for AI-related tokens following the rate cut news, suggesting that some traders might be adjusting their positions based on broader market sentiment (Coinbase, 2025).