According to @lookonchain, two Polymarket sports-market traders repeatedly bought contracts at 48–57¢ and lost nearly $10M in less than a month, highlighting the risk of oversized positions near even odds, source: @lookonchain. Trader 0x4924 logged 346 predictions with a 46.24% win rate and a realized PnL of -$5.96M over 24 days, source: @lookonchain; source: polymarket.com/0x492442eab586f242b53bda933fd5de859c8a3782. User bossoskil1 made 65 predictions with a 41.54% win rate and -$4.04M PnL in 11 days, source: @lookonchain; source: polymarket.com/0xa5ea13a81d2b7e8e424b182bdc1db08e756bd96a. @lookonchain notes that ~50¢ pricing reflects coin-flip odds, so betting big accelerates drawdowns and produces negative expectancy when win rates stay below 50%, source: @lookonchain.

According to @OnchainLens, Polymarket trader 0x006 earned approximately $1.34 million in the last 24 hours and has accumulated over $3.8 million in total profits. Source: x.com/OnchainLens/status/2011754938066747784; polymarket.com/@0x006cc834Cc092684F1B56626E23BEdB3835c16ea-1729683673397 The Polymarket profile for address 0x006cc834Cc092684F1B56626E23BEdB3835c16ea displays realized PnL exceeding $3.8 million and a 24-hour PnL around $1.34 million at the time referenced. Source: polymarket.com/@0x006cc834Cc092684F1B56626E23BEdB3835c16ea-1729683673397

According to @CoinMarketCap, Ukraine has blocked Polymarket under unlicensed gambling laws and added the domain to the national ban registry (source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 15, 2026). Authorities criticized the platform for hosting bets on outcomes related to the Russian invasion, signaling stricter oversight of prediction markets (source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 15, 2026). Polymarket is now restricted in 34 countries, including France, Germany, and the UK, limiting platform access for traders in those jurisdictions (source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 15, 2026).

According to @CryptoMichNL, prediction markets are a simple way to express options-like BTC trades where market odds map directly to probability and potential payout. Source: @CryptoMichNL, X, Jan 14, 2026. He states that when BTC is at $90K, the market-implied chance of hitting $120K within a month is below 2%, but if BTC crawls toward $100K those odds increase to 5-7% on Polymarket. Source: @CryptoMichNL, X, Jan 14, 2026. He adds that this shift in odds can translate into a quick 2-4x return on a yes-position if the $120K outcome is realized before month-end. Source: @CryptoMichNL, X, Jan 14, 2026.

According to @lookonchain, a Polymarket trader lost $2.36M in 8 days after making 53 predictions with 25 wins, 28 losses, and a 47.2% win rate. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, the trader focused on sports markets (NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA), frequently traded spread markets, bought positions mostly at $0.40–$0.60, placed very large bets of $200K to over $1M, and held to settlement with no hedging or scaling. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, winning trades typically returned +60% to +150% while losing trades settled at $0 (-100%), allowing just two or three losses to erase prior gains. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, with this payoff structure, a 47.2% win rate was not sustainable in high-variance spread markets. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, the key lesson is that strict position limits and risk management matter more than conviction because a few wrong outcomes can destroy an entire account in prediction markets. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929

According to @OnchainLens, two newly created wallets bought YES shares in Polymarket’s Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 market, with Regimehasfallen spending $30,000 and thecomplicatedguy spending $20,000 while still holding $20,038 USDC on-chain, and @OnchainLens stated the latter is likely to buy more; source: @OnchainLens on X (Jan 12, 2026) and Polymarket profile pages at polymarket.com/@Regimehasfallen and polymarket.com/@thecomplicatedguy.

According to @lookonchain, Polymarket trader sb911 made $106K in one month with a low win rate by applying a probability-driven approach to event markets. Source: Lookonchain on X Jan 11 2026 https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2010395416916062573 For trading, this case shows that asymmetric payoff structures and positive expected value can drive outsized PnL in prediction markets even when many positions lose, as characterized by @lookonchain. Source: Lookonchain on X Jan 11 2026 https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2010395416916062573

According to Onchain Lens, a newly created wallet deposited 64,979 dollars into Polymarket and placed two bets, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket. The wallet spent 14,994 dollars on a YES position for the market Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket. It also spent 49,985 dollars on a NO position for the market Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket. The activity is attributed to address 0xBE482CD6e5183BE8767f03b48EBc3FF35769683f on Polymarket, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket.

According to @OnchainDataNerd, two newly active wallets placed sizable YES wagers almost simultaneously on Polymarket’s Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027 market, with one spending $47,760 at 17 cents and another $33,999 at 15 cents, and the bettors are listed as Goopah and AmericanImperialism, source: @OnchainDataNerd on X, Jan 10, 2026. According to @OnchainDataNerd, the combined stake totals about $81,759 and would return $467,199 if the contract resolves YES under Polymarket’s payout rules, source: @OnchainDataNerd on X, Jan 10, 2026. According to Polymarket documentation, binary market prices reflect implied probabilities, so entries at 15-17 cents indicate roughly 15-17 percent market-implied odds at the time of execution, source: Polymarket documentation. According to Polymarket documentation, markets are settled in USDC on the Polygon network, meaning these positions are USDC-denominated and executed on Polygon, source: Polymarket documentation.

According to @lookonchain, a Polymarket profile labeled tiffanytrump lost all seven political and war-related prediction markets for a combined loss of $24,472, impacting trader sentiment around celebrity-named accounts on prediction venues. Source: x.com/lookonchain/status/2009580763252208025, polymarket.com/0x2adc3f79e58a5066d0d50e367b8cea88418b8c20 According to @lookonchain, this result indicates the profile does not have insider information despite the suggestive handle, reinforcing that track records matter more than names for trading decisions. Source: x.com/lookonchain/status/2009580763252208025 According to the source data on Polymarket, the address 0x2adc3f79e58a506d0d50e367b8cea88418b8c20 shows seven losing outcomes and a net loss of $24,472, which is directly verifiable for position-level due diligence. Source: polymarket.com/0x2adc3f79e58a506d0d50e367b8cea88418b8c20

According to @CryptoMichNL, 2025 was dominated by prediction markets, and he actively used them during the Dutch elections, the World Championships of Darts, and while trading Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH); source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Jan 8, 2026. Polymarket announced it has been named the Exclusive Prediction Market Partner of the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones, describing itself as The World's Largest Prediction Market; source: Polymarket on X, post ID 2008928601182277721. For BTC and ETH traders, the author underscores direct incorporation of prediction market information into trade execution based on his stated usage during crypto trading; source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Jan 8, 2026.

According to @OnchainDataNerd, citing @thepolynerd_, four newly created Polymarket wallets placed coordinated buy orders in the ‘US strikes Iran by Jan 31, 2026’ market when implied probability was below 18%, raising an allegation of potential insider participation; sources: https://twitter.com/OnchainDataNerd/status/2009123433582612727 https://x.com/thepolynerd_/status/2009122571535700312 https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by/us-strikes-iran-by-january-31-2026?tid=1767846811735 According to @OnchainDataNerd, the referenced wallets are 0xEFD06D1A6cC221b747890DCe15F00bf05742BF24, zzx1234k, Memeretirement, and MrEsma, each shown on Polymarket profile pages; sources: https://polymarket.com/@0xEFD06D1A6cC221b747890DCe15F00bf05742BF24-1767800907318 https://polymarket.com/@zzx1234k https://polymarket.com/@Memeretirement https://polymarket.com/@MrEsma According to @OnchainDataNerd, one of these wallets also took a position in the ‘US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026’ market to maximize profit, as noted in the thread; sources: https://x.com/thepolynerd_/status/2009122571535700312 https://twitter.com/OnchainDataNerd/status/2009123433582612727

According to @WatcherGuru, Polymarket announced a partnership with Dow Jones and The Wall Street Journal on Jan 7, 2026, with the post not disclosing financial terms or technical specifics; traders should monitor near-term changes in Polymarket market volume, open interest, and bid-ask spreads around U.S. equities and macro news markets following the announcement to assess any impact. Source: Watcher.Guru.

According to @KobeissiLetter, The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones announced an exclusive partnership with Polymarket under which the platform will publish real-time market data on financial event contracts, providing traders with a direct live feed of event pricing for time-sensitive strategies (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to the source, Polymarket announced an exclusive partnership with Dow Jones and The Wall Street Journal on Jan 7, 2026, source: social media announcement dated Jan 7, 2026. The announcement post does not disclose integration scope, launch timeline, or financial terms, which limits immediate trading visibility for prediction-market participants, source: same announcement.

According to @lookonchain, Polymarket trader 'ricosuave666' returned after roughly seven months of inactivity and spent 8,198 dollars to bet on the market titled Israel strikes Iran, highlighting renewed positioning in a high-impact geopolitical contract for prediction market participants (source: @lookonchain on X; source: polymarket.com/@ricosuave666?tab=activity). According to @lookonchain, the same account’s Israel-related wagers placed when he joined seven months ago were all profitable, which the source flagged while explicitly posing the insider question without making an assertion (source: @lookonchain on X). According to @lookonchain, this wallet-specific flow is being surfaced for traders monitoring on-chain prediction market activity around Israel-Iran escalation risk, and the related transactions can be reviewed directly on the provided Polymarket profile activity page for verification and context (source: @lookonchain on X; source: polymarket.com/@ricosuave666?tab=activity).

According to @bubblemaps, recent posts tying a supposed Maduro-linked Polymarket insider to a WLFI cofounder rely on weak logic and should stop, source: Bubblemaps on X, Jan 5, 2026. Given @bubblemaps’ assessment, traders should avoid anchoring positions to this WLFI linkage narrative and discount rumor-driven repricing in related Polymarket markets until verifiable evidence is presented, source: Bubblemaps on X, Jan 5, 2026.

According to @EvgenyGaevoy, insider trading on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi should not be normalized, and he states he will think less of those who engage in it, signaling reputational risk for market participants, source: X post by @EvgenyGaevoy, Jan 5, 2026. He publicly endorses @karbonbased’s guidance that if you possess material non-public information obtained through private channels, you should not trade the related market, source: X post by @EvgenyGaevoy, Jan 5, 2026; X post by @karbonbased, Jan 5, 2026. The guidance further warns that relying on a technicality that insider trading rules do not apply to CFTC derivatives is unlikely to hold up and may carry criminal risk, including prison, source: X post by @karbonbased, Jan 5, 2026; supported by X post by @EvgenyGaevoy, Jan 5, 2026. Trading takeaway: abstain from executing or signaling trades on Polymarket or Kalshi when in possession of material non-public information to mitigate legal exposure and reputational damage, source: X post by @EvgenyGaevoy, Jan 5, 2026; X post by @karbonbased, Jan 5, 2026.

According to @lookonchain, trader "beachboy4" lost over $2 million on Polymarket within 35 days, implying an average realized drawdown of roughly $57,000 per day based on the disclosed figures (source: Lookonchain, X post dated Jan 5, 2026). The case highlights how concentrated positions in event-driven markets can translate into rapid losses when probabilities move against the trader, as prediction market prices adjust quickly to new information (source: Lookonchain; source: Wolfers & Zitzewitz, Journal of Economic Perspectives 2004). For trading execution, the episode reinforces capping position size relative to bankroll and modeling liquidity and price impact when exiting losing bets, factors known to accelerate drawdowns in thin prediction markets (source: Lookonchain; source: Hanson, Market Scoring Rules 2003).

According to @lookonchain, three newly created wallets on Polymarket placed large positions on markets predicting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be out of office just hours before his arrest, and collectively realized $630,484 in profit (source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2007639475497881625). Wallet 0x31a5 invested about $34,000 and booked about $409,900 in profit on the relevant Polymarket market, as shown on its activity page and summarized by @lookonchain (source: https://polymarket.com/@0x31a56e9E690c621eD21De08Cb559e9524Cdb8eD9-1766730765984?tab=activity; source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2007639475497881625). Wallet 0xa72D invested about $5,800 and profited about $75,000 on the same theme, per its Polymarket profile and @lookonchain’s report (source: https://polymarket.com/@0xa72DB1749e9AC2379D49A3c12708325ED17FeBd4-1766534754187?tab=activity; source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2007639475497881625). Wallet SBet365 invested about $25,000 and realized about $145,600 in profit on Venezuela–Maduro markets, as reflected on its Polymarket activity and cited by @lookonchain (source: https://polymarket.com/@SBet365?tab=activity; source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2007639475497881625). The three wallets were created and pre-funded days in advance, then executed the large bets just hours before the arrest, and only wagered on Venezuela/Maduro-related events with no other betting history, which @lookonchain characterizes as a clear case of insider trading for prediction market participants to note (source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2007639475497881625).