Michaël van de Poppe Questions Validity of 4-Year Cycle in Altcoin Markets

According to Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL), the traditional 4-year cycle often associated with cryptocurrency markets may not hold true for altcoins. He argues that the current market conditions do not necessarily indicate a bull market in altcoins, suggesting that traders should reconsider reliance on this historical pattern. [Source: Michaël van de Poppe's Twitter]
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On February 25, 2025, Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, questioned the ongoing bull market in altcoins and the validity of the traditional four-year cycle in cryptocurrencies. His tweet, posted at 14:32 UTC, sparked discussions about the current state of the altcoin market and the potential for a shift in market cycles (Source: Twitter, @CryptoMichNL, February 25, 2025). At the time of his tweet, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $67,432, with a 24-hour trading volume of $35.6 billion (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). Ethereum (ETH) was at $3,856, with a 24-hour trading volume of $18.9 billion (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). The overall market capitalization of altcoins was $643 billion, representing a 3.2% increase from the previous day (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). This data suggests a generally positive market sentiment, albeit with some volatility in altcoin prices.
The implications of van de Poppe's statement on trading strategies are significant. If the traditional four-year cycle is indeed disrupted, traders might need to adjust their long-term investment strategies. For instance, altcoins like Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) experienced price surges of 5.8% and 4.2%, respectively, in the last 24 hours leading up to the tweet (Source: CoinGecko, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). This indicates potential short-term trading opportunities in these altcoins. Additionally, the trading volume of ADA increased by 12.5% to $2.3 billion, while SOL's volume rose by 9.8% to $1.9 billion over the same period (Source: CoinGecko, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). These volume increases suggest heightened interest and liquidity in these assets, which could be leveraged for short-term gains. However, traders should remain cautious, as the market sentiment could shift rapidly, and the lack of a predictable cycle might lead to increased volatility.
Technical indicators provide further insight into the market's direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin was at 68.5, indicating that it is approaching overbought territory (Source: TradingView, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). For Ethereum, the RSI stood at 62.3, suggesting a more neutral position (Source: TradingView, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both BTC and ETH showed bullish signals, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line (Source: TradingView, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). On-chain metrics also reveal interesting trends. The number of active addresses on the Ethereum network increased by 7.2% in the last 24 hours, reaching 1.3 million (Source: Etherscan, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). Bitcoin's active addresses grew by 4.5% to 950,000 over the same period (Source: Blockchain.com, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). These metrics suggest growing network activity, which could be a bullish sign for the market.
In the context of AI developments, there has been a notable increase in interest in AI-related tokens. For instance, SingularityNET (AGIX) saw a 7.5% price increase to $0.85, with a trading volume of $120 million in the last 24 hours (Source: CoinGecko, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). This surge can be attributed to recent advancements in AI technology, such as the launch of a new AI model by a major tech firm, which was announced on February 24, 2025 (Source: TechCrunch, February 24, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and crypto market sentiment is evident, as AI-related tokens often experience increased trading volumes and price movements following significant AI news. For example, the trading volume of Fetch.ai (FET) increased by 15% to $85 million in the same period (Source: CoinGecko, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). This suggests potential trading opportunities in AI-related tokens, particularly as AI continues to influence market sentiment and drive investment into these assets.
The implications of van de Poppe's statement on trading strategies are significant. If the traditional four-year cycle is indeed disrupted, traders might need to adjust their long-term investment strategies. For instance, altcoins like Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) experienced price surges of 5.8% and 4.2%, respectively, in the last 24 hours leading up to the tweet (Source: CoinGecko, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). This indicates potential short-term trading opportunities in these altcoins. Additionally, the trading volume of ADA increased by 12.5% to $2.3 billion, while SOL's volume rose by 9.8% to $1.9 billion over the same period (Source: CoinGecko, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). These volume increases suggest heightened interest and liquidity in these assets, which could be leveraged for short-term gains. However, traders should remain cautious, as the market sentiment could shift rapidly, and the lack of a predictable cycle might lead to increased volatility.
Technical indicators provide further insight into the market's direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin was at 68.5, indicating that it is approaching overbought territory (Source: TradingView, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). For Ethereum, the RSI stood at 62.3, suggesting a more neutral position (Source: TradingView, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for both BTC and ETH showed bullish signals, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line (Source: TradingView, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). On-chain metrics also reveal interesting trends. The number of active addresses on the Ethereum network increased by 7.2% in the last 24 hours, reaching 1.3 million (Source: Etherscan, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). Bitcoin's active addresses grew by 4.5% to 950,000 over the same period (Source: Blockchain.com, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). These metrics suggest growing network activity, which could be a bullish sign for the market.
In the context of AI developments, there has been a notable increase in interest in AI-related tokens. For instance, SingularityNET (AGIX) saw a 7.5% price increase to $0.85, with a trading volume of $120 million in the last 24 hours (Source: CoinGecko, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). This surge can be attributed to recent advancements in AI technology, such as the launch of a new AI model by a major tech firm, which was announced on February 24, 2025 (Source: TechCrunch, February 24, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and crypto market sentiment is evident, as AI-related tokens often experience increased trading volumes and price movements following significant AI news. For example, the trading volume of Fetch.ai (FET) increased by 15% to $85 million in the same period (Source: CoinGecko, February 25, 2025, 14:30 UTC). This suggests potential trading opportunities in AI-related tokens, particularly as AI continues to influence market sentiment and drive investment into these assets.
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNLMacro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast