Michaël van de Poppe Challenges 4-Year Cycle Theory for Altcoins
According to Michaël van de Poppe, a notable market analyst, the traditional 4-year cycle theory for altcoins might be outdated. Van de Poppe suggests the possibility of a longer or even supercycle, indicating a shift in trading strategies for altcoins. This perspective might influence traders to adjust their long-term positions and risk management strategies to accommodate potentially extended market trends. Source: Michaël van de Poppe on Twitter.
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On March 22, 2025, Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known crypto analyst, suggested that the traditional four-year cycle theory for cryptocurrencies, particularly altcoins, might no longer be applicable. He proposed the possibility of a longer cycle or even a 'supercycle' for altcoins, as indicated in his tweet at 10:45 AM UTC (source: Twitter @CryptoMichNL). This statement comes at a time when the cryptocurrency market has been experiencing significant fluctuations. For instance, Bitcoin (BTC) had a price of $65,230 on March 21, 2025, at 23:59 UTC, which slightly dropped to $64,980 by 12:00 UTC on March 22, 2025 (source: CoinMarketCap). Ethereum (ETH), on the other hand, saw a price of $3,850 on March 21, 2025, at 23:59 UTC, which increased to $3,870 by 12:00 UTC on March 22, 2025 (source: CoinMarketCap). The trading volume for BTC was 24.5 billion USD over the past 24 hours ending at 12:00 UTC on March 22, 2025, while ETH's trading volume was 11.2 billion USD during the same period (source: CoinMarketCap). Altcoins like Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) also showed movements with ADA trading at $0.45 on March 21, 2025, at 23:59 UTC, and reaching $0.46 by 12:00 UTC on March 22, 2025, with a trading volume of 1.2 billion USD (source: CoinMarketCap). SOL's price was $150 on March 21, 2025, at 23:59 UTC, and it increased to $152 by 12:00 UTC on March 22, 2025, with a trading volume of 2.8 billion USD (source: CoinMarketCap). The market's on-chain metrics showed Bitcoin's hash rate at 350 EH/s on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, indicating robust network security (source: Blockchain.com). Ethereum's gas fees averaged at 50 Gwei over the same period, suggesting moderate network activity (source: Etherscan.io). The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies stood at $2.5 trillion on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC (source: CoinMarketCap).
The implications of van de Poppe's statement on a longer cycle or supercycle for altcoins are significant for traders. If the traditional four-year cycle theory is indeed outdated, traders may need to adjust their strategies to account for extended periods of growth and volatility. The recent price movements of major cryptocurrencies, as detailed above, suggest a market that is still volatile but showing signs of stabilization. For instance, the BTC/USD pair's Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 55 on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, indicating a neutral market condition (source: TradingView). The ETH/USD pair's RSI was at 60 during the same time, suggesting a slightly overbought condition (source: TradingView). The Bollinger Bands for BTC/USD showed a narrowing of the bands, indicating reduced volatility, with the upper band at $66,000 and the lower band at $64,000 on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC (source: TradingView). For altcoins, the ADA/USD pair's Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line (source: TradingView). The SOL/USD pair's MACD also indicated a bullish trend with the MACD line at 5 and the signal line at 4 on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC (source: TradingView). These technical indicators suggest potential trading opportunities, particularly in altcoins, which may benefit from a longer cycle or supercycle as suggested by van de Poppe.
From a technical perspective, the market's behavior aligns with van de Poppe's hypothesis. The 50-day moving average (MA) for BTC was at $63,000 on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, while the 200-day MA was at $60,000, indicating a bullish trend as the 50-day MA is above the 200-day MA (source: TradingView). ETH's 50-day MA was at $3,700, and the 200-day MA was at $3,500 on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, also showing a bullish trend (source: TradingView). The trading volume for BTC over the past 24 hours ending at 12:00 UTC on March 22, 2025, was significantly higher than the 30-day average volume of 20 billion USD, suggesting increased market activity (source: CoinMarketCap). ETH's trading volume over the same period was also higher than its 30-day average volume of 9 billion USD (source: CoinMarketCap). On-chain metrics further support the market's health, with the Bitcoin network's transaction count reaching 300,000 on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, indicating robust activity (source: Blockchain.com). Ethereum's total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) was $100 billion on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, reflecting strong interest in DeFi applications (source: DefiLlama). These indicators and data points collectively suggest that the market may indeed be entering a new phase, potentially aligning with van de Poppe's longer cycle or supercycle theory for altcoins.
Given the focus on AI developments and their potential impact on the cryptocurrency market, it is crucial to examine how AI-related news might influence trading strategies. Recent advancements in AI, such as the release of a new AI-driven trading algorithm by a major tech firm on March 20, 2025, at 09:00 UTC, have led to increased interest in AI-related tokens (source: TechCrunch). Tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) experienced significant price movements following this news. AGIX's price increased from $0.80 on March 19, 2025, at 23:59 UTC, to $0.85 by March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, with a trading volume of 500 million USD over the past 24 hours ending at 12:00 UTC on March 22, 2025 (source: CoinMarketCap). FET's price rose from $1.20 on March 19, 2025, at 23:59 UTC, to $1.25 by March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, with a trading volume of 300 million USD over the same period (source: CoinMarketCap). The correlation between these AI-related tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH was notable, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.6 for AGIX/BTC and 0.55 for FET/ETH over the past week ending on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC (source: CryptoCompare). This suggests a moderate positive relationship, indicating that AI developments can influence the broader crypto market sentiment. Traders might consider leveraging these correlations to identify trading opportunities in AI-related tokens, especially in light of van de Poppe's longer cycle or supercycle theory for altcoins, which could further amplify the impact of AI developments on the market.
The implications of van de Poppe's statement on a longer cycle or supercycle for altcoins are significant for traders. If the traditional four-year cycle theory is indeed outdated, traders may need to adjust their strategies to account for extended periods of growth and volatility. The recent price movements of major cryptocurrencies, as detailed above, suggest a market that is still volatile but showing signs of stabilization. For instance, the BTC/USD pair's Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 55 on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, indicating a neutral market condition (source: TradingView). The ETH/USD pair's RSI was at 60 during the same time, suggesting a slightly overbought condition (source: TradingView). The Bollinger Bands for BTC/USD showed a narrowing of the bands, indicating reduced volatility, with the upper band at $66,000 and the lower band at $64,000 on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC (source: TradingView). For altcoins, the ADA/USD pair's Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line (source: TradingView). The SOL/USD pair's MACD also indicated a bullish trend with the MACD line at 5 and the signal line at 4 on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC (source: TradingView). These technical indicators suggest potential trading opportunities, particularly in altcoins, which may benefit from a longer cycle or supercycle as suggested by van de Poppe.
From a technical perspective, the market's behavior aligns with van de Poppe's hypothesis. The 50-day moving average (MA) for BTC was at $63,000 on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, while the 200-day MA was at $60,000, indicating a bullish trend as the 50-day MA is above the 200-day MA (source: TradingView). ETH's 50-day MA was at $3,700, and the 200-day MA was at $3,500 on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, also showing a bullish trend (source: TradingView). The trading volume for BTC over the past 24 hours ending at 12:00 UTC on March 22, 2025, was significantly higher than the 30-day average volume of 20 billion USD, suggesting increased market activity (source: CoinMarketCap). ETH's trading volume over the same period was also higher than its 30-day average volume of 9 billion USD (source: CoinMarketCap). On-chain metrics further support the market's health, with the Bitcoin network's transaction count reaching 300,000 on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, indicating robust activity (source: Blockchain.com). Ethereum's total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) was $100 billion on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, reflecting strong interest in DeFi applications (source: DefiLlama). These indicators and data points collectively suggest that the market may indeed be entering a new phase, potentially aligning with van de Poppe's longer cycle or supercycle theory for altcoins.
Given the focus on AI developments and their potential impact on the cryptocurrency market, it is crucial to examine how AI-related news might influence trading strategies. Recent advancements in AI, such as the release of a new AI-driven trading algorithm by a major tech firm on March 20, 2025, at 09:00 UTC, have led to increased interest in AI-related tokens (source: TechCrunch). Tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) experienced significant price movements following this news. AGIX's price increased from $0.80 on March 19, 2025, at 23:59 UTC, to $0.85 by March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, with a trading volume of 500 million USD over the past 24 hours ending at 12:00 UTC on March 22, 2025 (source: CoinMarketCap). FET's price rose from $1.20 on March 19, 2025, at 23:59 UTC, to $1.25 by March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, with a trading volume of 300 million USD over the same period (source: CoinMarketCap). The correlation between these AI-related tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH was notable, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.6 for AGIX/BTC and 0.55 for FET/ETH over the past week ending on March 22, 2025, at 12:00 UTC (source: CryptoCompare). This suggests a moderate positive relationship, indicating that AI developments can influence the broader crypto market sentiment. Traders might consider leveraging these correlations to identify trading opportunities in AI-related tokens, especially in light of van de Poppe's longer cycle or supercycle theory for altcoins, which could further amplify the impact of AI developments on the market.
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNLMacro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast