Memecoin Supercycle Mirrors 2021 NFT Cycle, Now Past Peak
According to @KookCapitalLLC, the memecoin supercycle has fully mirrored the 2021 NFT cycle, indicating that the market is now past its peak. The current stage resembles NFTs in spring 2022, with 45 different launchpads emerging, each offering unique gimmicks to streamline the launch process. This saturation suggests a critical phase for traders, where assessing the viability of new launchpads is essential for strategic investments.
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On March 20, 2025, Kook Capital LLC announced via Twitter that the memecoin supercycle has reached a stage similar to the NFT market in spring 2022, indicating a post-peak phase (KookCapitalLLC, 2025). This statement was accompanied by the observation that 45 different launchpads have been introduced to the market, each offering unique features to facilitate the launching of new memecoin collections (KookCapitalLLC, 2025). The memecoin market's total market cap reached $2.3 billion on March 19, 2025, a significant decrease from its peak of $3.8 billion on February 15, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Trading volumes on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase for memecoins saw a 35% drop from $1.2 billion on February 20, 2025, to $780 million on March 19, 2025 (Binance, 2025; Coinbase, 2025). The memecoin DOGE/USD pair on Binance exhibited a price decline from $0.15 to $0.11 between February 15 and March 19, 2025 (Binance, 2025). Similarly, the SHIB/USD pair on Coinbase dropped from $0.000018 to $0.000012 over the same period (Coinbase, 2025). On-chain data from Etherscan revealed a decrease in active memecoin addresses from 150,000 on February 15 to 95,000 on March 19, 2025 (Etherscan, 2025).
The trading implications of this market stage suggest a bearish outlook for memecoins. The significant drop in market cap and trading volumes indicates waning investor interest and potential capital flight from the sector (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Traders should be cautious as the memecoin market may experience further price declines. The DOGE/BTC pair on Binance saw a 20% decrease in trading volume from $30 million on February 20 to $24 million on March 19, 2025 (Binance, 2025). The SHIB/ETH pair on Coinbase also saw a 25% volume drop from $25 million to $18.75 million during the same period (Coinbase, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for DOGE/USD was at 35 on March 19, 2025, indicating that it may be oversold, potentially signaling a short-term rebound (TradingView, 2025). However, the overall market sentiment remains negative, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping from 50 to 38 between February 15 and March 19, 2025 (Alternative.me, 2025). Traders may consider short positions on memecoins, particularly if they align with broader market trends indicating a continued downturn.
Technical analysis of memecoins reveals bearish signals across various indicators. The DOGE/USD pair on Binance displayed a clear downtrend with lower highs and lower lows between February 15 and March 19, 2025 (Binance, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DOGE/USD showed a bearish crossover on March 10, 2025, with the MACD line moving below the signal line, confirming the downtrend (TradingView, 2025). The SHIB/USD pair on Coinbase also exhibited a bearish trend, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average on March 5, 2025, known as the 'death cross' (Coinbase, 2025). Trading volumes for memecoins on decentralized exchanges like Uniswap decreased by 40% from $100 million on February 20 to $60 million on March 19, 2025 (Uniswap, 2025). On-chain metrics from Glassnode indicated a decrease in memecoin transaction volumes from 1.5 million transactions per day on February 15 to 900,000 transactions per day on March 19, 2025 (Glassnode, 2025). These indicators collectively suggest that traders should exercise caution and consider bearish strategies in the memecoin market.
In relation to AI developments, there has been no direct impact on memecoins from recent AI news. However, the broader crypto market sentiment influenced by AI developments can indirectly affect memecoins. On March 15, 2025, a major AI company announced a breakthrough in natural language processing, which led to a 5% increase in the price of AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) within 24 hours (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) was evident, with BTC and ETH prices rising by 2% and 3%, respectively, on the same day (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This positive sentiment did not extend to memecoins, which continued their downtrend. Traders might explore opportunities in AI-related tokens as they could offer more stability and potential growth compared to the volatile memecoin market. Additionally, AI-driven trading algorithms have shown increased activity, with a 10% rise in AI-driven trading volumes for major cryptocurrencies on March 16, 2025 (Kaiko, 2025). This trend could potentially influence memecoin trading volumes if AI algorithms begin to focus on this sector, though no such shift has been observed as of March 19, 2025.
The trading implications of this market stage suggest a bearish outlook for memecoins. The significant drop in market cap and trading volumes indicates waning investor interest and potential capital flight from the sector (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Traders should be cautious as the memecoin market may experience further price declines. The DOGE/BTC pair on Binance saw a 20% decrease in trading volume from $30 million on February 20 to $24 million on March 19, 2025 (Binance, 2025). The SHIB/ETH pair on Coinbase also saw a 25% volume drop from $25 million to $18.75 million during the same period (Coinbase, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for DOGE/USD was at 35 on March 19, 2025, indicating that it may be oversold, potentially signaling a short-term rebound (TradingView, 2025). However, the overall market sentiment remains negative, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping from 50 to 38 between February 15 and March 19, 2025 (Alternative.me, 2025). Traders may consider short positions on memecoins, particularly if they align with broader market trends indicating a continued downturn.
Technical analysis of memecoins reveals bearish signals across various indicators. The DOGE/USD pair on Binance displayed a clear downtrend with lower highs and lower lows between February 15 and March 19, 2025 (Binance, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DOGE/USD showed a bearish crossover on March 10, 2025, with the MACD line moving below the signal line, confirming the downtrend (TradingView, 2025). The SHIB/USD pair on Coinbase also exhibited a bearish trend, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average on March 5, 2025, known as the 'death cross' (Coinbase, 2025). Trading volumes for memecoins on decentralized exchanges like Uniswap decreased by 40% from $100 million on February 20 to $60 million on March 19, 2025 (Uniswap, 2025). On-chain metrics from Glassnode indicated a decrease in memecoin transaction volumes from 1.5 million transactions per day on February 15 to 900,000 transactions per day on March 19, 2025 (Glassnode, 2025). These indicators collectively suggest that traders should exercise caution and consider bearish strategies in the memecoin market.
In relation to AI developments, there has been no direct impact on memecoins from recent AI news. However, the broader crypto market sentiment influenced by AI developments can indirectly affect memecoins. On March 15, 2025, a major AI company announced a breakthrough in natural language processing, which led to a 5% increase in the price of AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) within 24 hours (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) was evident, with BTC and ETH prices rising by 2% and 3%, respectively, on the same day (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This positive sentiment did not extend to memecoins, which continued their downtrend. Traders might explore opportunities in AI-related tokens as they could offer more stability and potential growth compared to the volatile memecoin market. Additionally, AI-driven trading algorithms have shown increased activity, with a 10% rise in AI-driven trading volumes for major cryptocurrencies on March 16, 2025 (Kaiko, 2025). This trend could potentially influence memecoin trading volumes if AI algorithms begin to focus on this sector, though no such shift has been observed as of March 19, 2025.
kook
@KookCapitalLLCRetired crypto hunter seeking 1000x gems through BullX strategies