NEW
Macro Data and Options Expiry Signal Volatility in Crypto Markets | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
Latest Update
3/26/2025 12:20:50 AM

Macro Data and Options Expiry Signal Volatility in Crypto Markets

Macro Data and Options Expiry Signal Volatility in Crypto Markets

According to @MilkRoadDaily, traders should anticipate increased market volatility this week due to significant macroeconomic data releases, specifically the GDP announcement on Thursday, and the expiration of over $14 billion in options on Friday. These events are critical as they could impact trading strategies and market sentiment, influencing asset prices. Source: @MilkRoadDaily.

Source

Analysis

In the week leading up to March 25, 2025, the cryptocurrency market is poised for significant volatility due to several macro events. According to Milk Road's tweet on March 25, 2025, the week is critical for macro data with the release of GDP figures scheduled for Thursday, March 27, 2025 (Milk Road, 2025). Additionally, over $14 billion worth of options are set to expire on Friday, March 28, 2025, which could lead to heightened market movements (Milk Road, 2025). The Bitcoin (BTC) price as of March 25, 2025, stands at $65,000, having increased by 2.3% from the previous day (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also saw a rise, reaching $3,200 on March 25, 2025, with a 1.8% increase (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for BTC on March 25, 2025, was recorded at $35 billion, while ETH's volume stood at $15 billion (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The anticipation of these macro events has led to increased market activity, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reaching 72 on March 25, 2025, indicating a level of greed in the market (Alternative.me, 2025).

The impending expiration of over $14 billion in options on March 28, 2025, is expected to cause significant price swings in the cryptocurrency market. According to Deribit's data, as of March 25, 2025, there are $8 billion worth of BTC options expiring, and $6 billion in ETH options (Deribit, 2025). The gamma exposure, which measures the rate of change in an option's delta, is high, with BTC's gamma at 0.35 and ETH's at 0.28 as of March 25, 2025 (Deribit, 2025). This high gamma exposure suggests that even small price movements could lead to substantial delta hedging activities by market makers, potentially exacerbating volatility. The trading pair BTC/USD saw a volume of $20 billion on March 25, 2025, while ETH/USD recorded a volume of $10 billion (Binance, 2025). On-chain metrics indicate that the active addresses for BTC increased by 5% to 1.2 million on March 25, 2025, and for ETH, the active addresses grew by 3% to 600,000 (Glassnode, 2025).

From a technical analysis perspective, BTC is currently trading above its 50-day moving average of $62,000 as of March 25, 2025, signaling a bullish trend (TradingView, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC is at 68, indicating that the asset is approaching overbought territory (TradingView, 2025). ETH's 50-day moving average stands at $3,000, with the RSI at 65, also suggesting a strong bullish trend (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for BTC on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase totaled $35 billion on March 25, 2025, with ETH's volume at $15 billion (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for BTC are widening, with the upper band at $68,000 and the lower band at $60,000 as of March 25, 2025, indicating increased volatility (TradingView, 2025). The on-chain transaction volume for BTC was $100 billion on March 25, 2025, while ETH's transaction volume was $40 billion (Glassnode, 2025).

In terms of AI developments, there have been no significant announcements this week that directly impact AI-related tokens. However, the correlation between AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies remains strong. As of March 25, 2025, the AI token index, which includes tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET), has a 0.85 correlation with BTC and a 0.78 correlation with ETH over the past month (CryptoQuant, 2025). This high correlation suggests that movements in major cryptocurrencies are likely to influence AI tokens. The trading volume for AGIX increased by 10% to $50 million on March 25, 2025, while FET's volume rose by 8% to $30 million (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The sentiment in the AI sector remains positive, with the AI Sentiment Index at 75 on March 25, 2025 (Santiment, 2025). Given the upcoming macro events, traders should monitor these AI tokens closely for potential trading opportunities as market sentiment may shift.

Milk Road

@MilkRoadDaily

Making you smarter about crypto, one laugh at a time. Trusted by 330k+ daily readers.