According to @ki_young_ju, selling Bitcoin (BTC) below 1x mNAV may offer short-term gains for MicroStrategy (MSTR) shareholders but would ultimately hurt Bitcoin and then MSTR, risking a death spiral; this flags downside risk to both BTC and MSTR if sub-1x mNAV sales occur. source: Ki Young Ju on X, Dec 1, 2025 https://twitter.com/ki_young_ju/status/1995506049269608827 For traders, the warning emphasizes monitoring any BTC disposals below 1x mNAV as a potential negative feedback loop between BTC price and MSTR equity, aligning risk management with this threshold. source: Ki Young Ju on X, Dec 1, 2025 https://twitter.com/ki_young_ju/status/1995506049269608827

According to @ki_young_ju on X on Dec 1, 2025, selling Bitcoin below 1x mNAV could benefit MicroStrategy (MSTR) shareholders but would hurt Bitcoin, indicating negative price impact risk for BTC. According to @ki_young_ju on X on Dec 1, 2025, the 1x mNAV level is the key threshold traders should watch when assessing potential MSTR-related BTC supply overhang. According to @ki_young_ju on X on Dec 1, 2025, sub-mNAV sales are unfavorable for Bitcoin’s market health even if they support MSTR equity, suggesting caution around BTC exposure if this condition emerges.

According to @camillionaire_m, DATs should be built as institutional capital markets vehicles with disciplined compliance, yield, transparency, and governance, not as vanity public companies for unwanted tokens. According to @camillionaire_m, the core mandate is per-share treasury growth plus access to crypto markets supported by a profitable operating business so the mNAV can remain slightly above 1 over time. According to @camillionaire_m, DATs are the second proper public-markets crypto product after ETFs, so traders should prioritize DATs with sustainable yield and clear treasury accretion when assessing mNAV premiums and potential liquidity.

According to Matt Hougan, there is widespread misanalysis of digital asset treasury companies (DATs), particularly on whether they should trade at, above, or below the market value of the assets they hold, or mNAV, and he outlines his approach to this premium/discount question in a new X thread. Source: Matt Hougan on X, Nov 23, 2025.

According to @caprioleio, many crypto treasury companies trading below market NAV (mNAV) face three choices: sell underlying assets, get acquired, or increase leverage to boost yield (source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 27, 2025). He states that selling underlying assets is negative for both the related coin and the operating business, highlighting direct downside risk to token prices when sales occur (source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 27, 2025). He also warns that incentives are aligned for leverage growth across the sector, and he expects more cases of firms levering up to stand out on yield (source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 27, 2025). For trading, this concentrates near-term catalysts around forced asset sales, M&A repricing, and leverage-driven yield strategies for tokens tied to such treasuries, as indicated by his assessment (source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 27, 2025).

According to @caprioleio, MicroStrategy can generate BTC yield by acquiring Bitcoin treasury companies trading below modified NAV (mNAV), capturing an implied 10%+ return from the discount. Source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 20, 2025. The post frames this as a buyout arbitrage of firms whose market value sits below their BTC mNAV, enabling discount capture as yield to BTC holdings. Source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 20, 2025. Trading takeaway: monitor NAV discounts across Bitcoin treasury equities and MSTR’s potential M&A activity as a catalyst for discount closure and BTC-denominated yield. Source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 20, 2025.

According to @caprioleio, 30% of Treasury companies are trading below mNAV and rising, indicating a growing cohort priced at a discount to their referenced mNAV while market prices trend higher (source: Charles Edwards on X, Oct 20, 2025). A market price below NAV denotes a discount relative to the value of underlying holdings, a condition traders watch for relative value and potential discount narrowing in vehicles that report NAV or iNAV equivalents (source: Investopedia, Net Asset Value; source: Morningstar, Understanding Premiums and Discounts). Cross-asset traders also monitor such fixed income discounts alongside yields because bond-market dislocations can affect broader risk sentiment, and crypto has shown increasing comovement with risk assets since 2020 (source: BIS Bulletin No. 53, 2022; source: IMF Global Financial Stability Note, 2022).

According to @caprioleio, the investment trust bubble has built over 7–8 years and many mNAVs are now below 1, indicating growing stress in Bitcoin yield products, source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 14, 2025. According to @caprioleio, this environment incentivizes managers to add debt to boost Bitcoin yield, increasing leverage risk across Treasury Companies and setting the stage for a potential big-bang unwind, source: @caprioleio on X, Oct 14, 2025.

According to Charles Edwards, Metaplanet is in a -73% drawdown, has been making infrequent Bitcoin (BTC) purchases, and its mNAV is collapsing toward 1; source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, Sep 18, 2025. For traders, Edwards’ remarks focus attention on two key drivers to monitor: the frequency of BTC treasury additions and the mNAV trajectory toward 1; source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, Sep 18, 2025. Edwards also states that all treasury company mNAVs trend toward 1 over time, underscoring convergence risk when evaluating Metaplanet equity versus holding BTC directly; source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, Sep 18, 2025.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, SBET is trading below mNAV 1, signaling the shares are priced under the market value of the ETH it holds (Source: @MilkRoadDaily, X, Sep 7, 2025). According to @MilkRoadDaily, the existing 1.5 billion share buyback authorization is most powerful in this setup, allowing the company to repurchase stock at a discount to its underlying ETH exposure (Source: @MilkRoadDaily, X, Sep 7, 2025).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the average mNAV of the top 10 BTCTCs is 1.67 and the average mNAV of the top 10 ETHTCs is 1.23, excluding outliers such as Coinbase and Yunfeng Financial, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, September 3, 2025. This shows BTCTCs in the measured group have a higher mNAV than ETHTCs by 0.44 under the same methodology, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, September 3, 2025. The calculation explicitly removes Coinbase and Yunfeng Financial from the sample as outliers, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, September 3, 2025.

According to @caprioleio, when accounting for enterprise value including debt, 20% of Bitcoin Treasury Companies currently show mNAV Enterprise below 1, source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, September 1, 2025. He adds that this percentage has not reached a new all-time high, source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, September 1, 2025. He characterizes this as good news, indicating the breadth of this condition is not at an extreme relative to history, source: Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) on X, September 1, 2025.

According to @adriannewman21, market confidence in the mNAV narrative is being questioned as MSTR and SBET issue equity and underperform their underlying assets, raising doubt about the treasury-company approach to crypto exposure (source: @adriannewman21). According to @adriannewman21, this dilution-driven underperformance challenges the appeal of equity-based crypto proxies and may shift focus to tracking mNAV premiums/discounts versus underlying and the pace of new share issuance (source: @adriannewman21). According to @adriannewman21, traders are reacting to widening performance gaps relative to underlying assets, which can compress valuation multiples for treasury companies and impact BTC proxy trades that rely on tight mNAV alignment (source: @adriannewman21).

According to Adam Back on Twitter, the thread provides a clear breakdown of the 'Months to mNAV Cover,' analyzing how this metric relates to the mNAV (multiple of market cap versus BTC treasury net asset value) and the yield, which is the rate of increase in BTC per share (source: Adam Back Twitter, June 4, 2025). For traders, understanding these metrics is crucial as they directly affect the valuation and trading strategies of crypto treasury stocks like MicroStrategy. A lower Months to mNAV Cover suggests faster alignment between market cap and Bitcoin NAV, signaling potential undervaluation or overvaluation opportunities. The yield metric, reflecting BTC/share growth, helps investors identify treasury stocks with strong Bitcoin accumulation rates, which may outperform during bullish BTC cycles. These insights are especially relevant for portfolio allocation and risk management in the crypto equity market.