According to Charlie Bilello, the Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds target range by 25 bps to 3.50–3.75%, citing labor market weakness while noting inflation has run at roughly twice the 2% target over the past six years (source: Charlie Bilello on X). This report is not yet confirmed; official FOMC decisions must be verified against the post-meeting statement and target range published by the Federal Reserve (source: Federal Reserve). If confirmed, a 25 bps cut would lower the policy rate anchor for front-end Treasury yields, potentially easing financial conditions that influence USD liquidity and risk sentiment in crypto, warranting close monitoring of BTC and ETH around policy headlines (source: Federal Reserve).

According to Charlie Bilello, the percentage of US workers quitting their jobs fell to 1.8%, the lowest since May 2020, indicating the labor market continues to weaken (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 9, 2025). A lower quits rate reflects fewer voluntary job changes and softer worker confidence under the BLS JOLTS framework, a macro signal closely watched by traders for positioning across risk assets (source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US private payrolls fell by an average of 13,500 per week over the four weeks ending November 8, worsening from a 2,500 decline per week in the prior period (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Nov 25, 2025). According to The Kobeissi Letter, this deterioration signals a weak labor market and supports the view that the Federal Reserve must continue cutting interest rates, a key macro input for near-term trading decisions (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Nov 25, 2025).

According to @KobeissiLetter, US temporary help services jobs fell by 9,800 in August to 2.5 million, the lowest level since September 2020 (source: @KobeissiLetter). According to @KobeissiLetter, excluding the 2020 pandemic, this is the lowest level in 13 years (source: @KobeissiLetter). According to @KobeissiLetter, on a year-over-year basis, temporary help services jobs recorded their 33rd consecutive monthly decline (source: @KobeissiLetter). According to @KobeissiLetter, since the March 2022 peak, the sector has lost 677,000 jobs, down 21.3%, exceeding the 20% drop seen in the 2001 recession (source: @KobeissiLetter). According to @KobeissiLetter, employment trends continue to deteriorate, signaling a weakening US labor market (source: @KobeissiLetter).