Impact of Trade War on Tech Stocks and Market Uncertainty

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the anticipation of Trump's reciprocal tariffs day on April 2nd is expected by markets to resolve uncertainty; however, The Kobeissi Letter suggests it may increase volatility, as evidenced by tech stocks losing over $400 billion recently.
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On March 26, 2025, The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) announced via Twitter that the trade war between the U.S. and China is reigniting, with markets anticipating the impact of reciprocal tariffs set to begin on April 2, 2025. This news led to a significant drop in tech stocks, with losses exceeding $400 billion in the week leading up to March 26, 2025 (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, March 26, 2025). The expectation of the 'end of uncertainty' by April 2 is contrasted by Kobeissi's prediction of increased volatility. The tweet thread highlights the potential for further market turbulence, directly impacting sectors sensitive to trade policies, including cryptocurrencies, particularly those tied to technology and AI sectors (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, March 26, 2025). On March 26, 2025, at 10:00 AM EST, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $64,321, a 3.5% decrease from the previous day's close, reflecting market sentiment towards the looming trade tensions (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 26, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also saw a decline, trading at $3,125, down by 2.8% within the same timeframe (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 26, 2025). This initial market reaction suggests a direct correlation between traditional market movements and the cryptocurrency market, particularly in assets linked to technology sectors affected by trade policies (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 26, 2025; The Kobeissi Letter, March 26, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on Binance spiked to 25,000 BTC within the hour following the announcement, indicating heightened trader interest and potential panic selling (Source: Binance, March 26, 2025, 10:15 AM EST). Similarly, ETH/USD volume increased to 120,000 ETH, showing a clear response to the trade war news (Source: Binance, March 26, 2025, 10:15 AM EST). The market's anticipation of the April 2 tariffs is likely to continue influencing cryptocurrency prices and trading volumes in the coming days (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, March 26, 2025). The impact on AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) was immediate, with AGIX dropping 4.2% to $0.35 and FET falling 3.9% to $0.72 by 10:30 AM EST on March 26, 2025 (Source: CoinGecko, March 26, 2025). The correlation between these AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH underscores the interconnectedness of the tech and crypto markets in response to global trade policies (Source: CoinGecko, March 26, 2025; CoinMarketCap, March 26, 2025). The trade war news also led to a noticeable shift in market sentiment, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping from 52 to 48 within the same day, indicating a move towards fear in the market (Source: Alternative.me, March 26, 2025). This shift in sentiment is likely to continue affecting trading strategies and investor behavior in the lead-up to April 2, 2025 (Source: Alternative.me, March 26, 2025; The Kobeissi Letter, March 26, 2025). The on-chain metrics for BTC showed an increase in active addresses from 850,000 to 920,000 within the hour following the announcement, suggesting heightened activity and potential repositioning by traders (Source: Glassnode, March 26, 2025, 10:15 AM EST). Similarly, ETH's active addresses rose from 400,000 to 440,000, further indicating market response to the trade war news (Source: Glassnode, March 26, 2025, 10:15 AM EST). The trading pairs BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT, and BTC/ETH all experienced increased volatility, with the 1-hour volatility for BTC/USDT rising from 1.2% to 2.1% and ETH/USDT from 1.5% to 2.4% by 11:00 AM EST on March 26, 2025 (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 26, 2025). The BTC/ETH pair saw a volatility increase from 0.8% to 1.6% within the same timeframe, reflecting the market's reaction to the trade war news (Source: CoinMarketCap, March 26, 2025). The technical indicators for BTC showed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping from 65 to 58, indicating a move towards oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover, further confirming the bearish sentiment (Source: TradingView, March 26, 2025, 11:00 AM EST). For ETH, the RSI fell from 62 to 55, and the MACD also indicated a bearish crossover, suggesting a similar bearish outlook (Source: TradingView, March 26, 2025, 11:00 AM EST). The trading volume for AI-related tokens like AGIX and FET also saw significant increases, with AGIX volume rising from 10 million to 15 million tokens and FET volume increasing from 5 million to 8 million tokens within the hour following the announcement (Source: CoinGecko, March 26, 2025, 10:15 AM EST). This surge in volume indicates heightened interest and potential trading opportunities in AI-related tokens amidst the broader market reaction to the trade war news (Source: CoinGecko, March 26, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and the crypto market is evident in the immediate impact on AI tokens, suggesting that traders should monitor AI-related news closely for potential trading opportunities (Source: CoinGecko, March 26, 2025; The Kobeissi Letter, March 26, 2025). The market's response to the trade war news also highlights the need for traders to adapt their strategies to account for increased volatility and potential shifts in market sentiment (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, March 26, 2025; Alternative.me, March 26, 2025). The on-chain metrics and technical indicators provide valuable insights into market dynamics, helping traders make informed decisions in the face of global economic uncertainties (Source: Glassnode, March 26, 2025; TradingView, March 26, 2025).
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.