According to @CryptoMichNL, BTC is entering a decisive period with potential for a significant upside breakout, indicating a possible shift away from the traditional 4-year cycle framework (source: @CryptoMichNL on X). He points traders to his new YouTube video for the full trading context and rationale behind the breakout call (source: @CryptoMichNL on X).

According to @CryptoMichNL, the current roughly 35% BTC drawdown fits a still-intact Bitcoin cycle that no longer aligns neatly with the 4-year halving timeline and should be evaluated through macro and flow indicators, source: @CryptoMichNL. The author argues that spot ETF demand has added nearly 60,000 BTC of buy pressure and lifted BTC’s effective floor from the $30k–$40k range toward $80k–$120k, shifting price action toward institutional flows rather than a pure halving-driven supply model, source: @CryptoMichNL. He highlights that risk assets tend to struggle when Gold accelerates, so traders should track Gold strength, PMI trends, QT and high rates, and USD dynamics to gauge risk-on conditions for BTC, source: @CryptoMichNL. He notes a recurring relationship where CNY/USD bottoms aligned with ETH/BTC bottoms in 2016, 2019, and April 2025, implying today’s placement resembles mid-2016 or late-2019 rather than a late-cycle top, source: @CryptoMichNL. From the business-cycle lens, PMI is starting to improve while the Federal Reserve has begun overnight repos, placing markets near a cycle trough consistent with prior early-bull phases, source: @CryptoMichNL. Forward-looking drivers cited include major bank allocation channels to spot BTC ETFs, pro-clarity policy steps for DeFi, and potential monetary easing, while cautioning against rigidly anchoring to the 4-year template, source: @CryptoMichNL. Trading takeaway: favor buy-the-dip accumulation with strict risk controls while monitoring Gold strength, CNY/USD, ETH/BTC, PMI, and ETF flow trends, with the expectation of moderating volatility and yearly returns as BTC matures, source: @CryptoMichNL.

According to @AltcoinDaily, the suggested trade is to buy Bitcoin BTC and hold for four years to capture a full market cycle. source: Altcoin Daily on X, Nov 15, 2025. A four-year horizon spans one halving because Bitcoin’s block subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, reducing new BTC issuance and changing the supply profile traders track. source: Bitcoin.org. BTC has historically seen deep bear-market drawdowns exceeding 70 percent, so multi-year holds still carry high volatility and downside risk that must be managed. source: Glassnode Insights. Since January 2024, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved and began trading, broadening access for long-horizon exposure and offering an additional implementation route for such strategies. source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

According to the source, some experts believe retail traders still follow the four-year Bitcoin cycle playbook, contributing to the latest crypto market pullback; many analysts cited by the source expect this cycle to be invalidated, signaling that halving-based timing may be less reliable for entries and exits in the current environment. According to the source, traders should prioritize real-time market structure and liquidity signals over fixed-cycle heuristics to manage risk in BTC and majors.

According to @KookCapitalLLC, BTC will hit $144,000 in 2025 and that will mark the cycle top, representing a specific price target and timeframe for traders to track. Source: @KookCapitalLLC on X, Oct 5, 2025. The stated $144,000 target implies roughly a 95% upside versus Bitcoin’s March 2024 record near $73,000, providing a benchmark for upside potential and risk-reward planning. Source: Bloomberg, March 2024 record near $73,000; calculation based on that reference price. Context for cycle timing: the fourth Bitcoin halving occurred at block 840,000 in April 2024, a supply-reduction event often monitored in crypto market cycle analysis. Source: Blockchain.com block explorer halving data (block 840,000, April 2024); Binance Research 2024 halving review. Trading takeaway: if tracking this call, traders may map liquidity and potential resistance near round-number zones such as 100,000, 120,000 and the 144,000 target to plan scale-ins/outs and stops. Source: CME Group education on psychological round-number levels; target level per @KookCapitalLLC on X, Oct 5, 2025. Note that this is a single-account projection without disclosed methodology or data in the post, so it should be treated as sentiment input rather than validated guidance. Source: @KookCapitalLLC on X, Oct 5, 2025 (no methodology provided in the post).

According to @cas_abbe, historical data shows that Bitcoin (BTC) has consistently delivered significant returns in August following a halving year, with gains of +65% in both 2013 and 2017, and +13.8% in 2021. With the most recent halving in 2024, traders are closely watching August for a potential repeat of this pattern. This historical trend highlights a key period for BTC price action and may influence trading strategies as market participants anticipate whether 2024 will maintain or break the cycle. Source: @cas_abbe

According to @cas_abbe, Bitcoin's (BTC) failure to break new all-time highs is not due to market suppression but rather significant selling pressure from long-term holders taking profits, as indicated by on-chain data from analyst Checkmate. Concurrently, Sygnum Bank's Head of Investment Research, Katalin Tischhauser, advises caution for traders regarding a potential double top pattern forming with peaks near $110,000 and a support neckline around $75,000. However, Tischhauser believes a 2022-style crash is unlikely, barring a black swan event, because the current market is supported by sticky, long-term institutional capital from spot ETFs and corporate treasuries. She also suggests that the historical four-year halving cycle's impact may be dead, as institutional demand now has a much greater influence on price than the diminishing selling pressure from miners.

According to Katalin Tischhauser, Head of Investment Research at Sygnum Bank, Bitcoin's double top pattern above $100,000 warrants trader caution as it could indicate a bearish trend reversal, potentially leading to a drop below $75,000 if the pattern confirms. However, a full-scale crash like 2022 is improbable without a black swan event such as the Terra or FTX collapses, as institutional inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have brought over $48 billion in net investments since January 2024, per Farside Investors data, creating sticky demand that supports prices. Tischhauser notes that this flow-driven market, with 141 public companies holding BTC, makes the halving cycle less impactful, reducing the likelihood of prolonged downturns.

According to Katalin Tischhauser, the double top pattern in Bitcoin (BTC) above $100,000 warrants trading caution as it signals potential bearishness, but a full price crash is unlikely without a black swan event like the Terra or FTX collapses. Tischhauser notes that institutional flows, including over $48 billion in net inflows to spot bitcoin ETFs, provide strong price support and resilience, potentially ending the halving cycle's influence due to reduced miner selling pressure.