According to @godbole17, a satirical tweet on Dec 12, 2025 addresses a review-related free speech spat around a popular Indian film and contains no references to cryptocurrencies, equities, or macro data, implying no direct trading signal from the source (source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 12, 2025). For traders tracking social sentiment, the post is non-market commentary and should be treated as neutral for positioning and volatility expectations absent corroborating market data (source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 12, 2025). No tickers, price levels, or market guidance are present in the text, so there is no actionable setup derived from the post alone (source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 12, 2025).

According to @godbole17, Pax Silica is a narrow supply-chain coordination group focused on critical minerals and technology bottlenecks (source: @godbole17 via @HemanNamo). The source clarifies it is not a geopolitical ranking of partners, countering headline-driven interpretations (source: @godbole17 via @HemanNamo). The source adds that mini-groups should not be read as main partnerships, guiding traders to avoid alliance-shift narratives and to track concrete supply-chain actions instead (source: @godbole17 via @HemanNamo).

According to Omkar Godbole, pre-COVID U.S. debt levels were not above 100% of GDP, highlighting how post-2020 leverage shifted macro liquidity dynamics that traders must monitor (source: Omkar Godbole on X, Dec 11, 2025; Congressional Budget Office FY2019 data). U.S. debt held by the public stood near 79% of GDP at the end of FY2019, below 100%, underscoring the step-change higher after 2020 (source: Congressional Budget Office, Historical Debt Data). In September 2019, the Federal Reserve began large-scale repo operations and later added Treasury bill purchases to stabilize funding markets while maintaining it was not QE (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York statement on repo operations, Sept 2019; Federal Reserve Board announcement on T-bill purchases, Oct 11, 2019). On March 12, 2020, the New York Fed offered up to $1.5 trillion in term repos to ease acute funding stress, followed by an open-ended QE program announced on March 23, 2020, materially expanding reserves and system liquidity (source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York repo operations announcement, Mar 12, 2020; Federal Reserve Board QE statement, Mar 23, 2020). For crypto traders, elevated federal borrowing and potential funding strains can widen rate term premia and tighten USD liquidity, conditions that often coincide with higher cross-asset volatility, making liquidity dashboards essential for BTC and ETH risk management (source: U.S. Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee minutes; Bank for International Settlements Quarterly Review on term premia). Key watchpoints include the Fed balance sheet and reserve levels from H.4.1, SOFR and repo rates, and Treasury General Account swings that add or drain bank reserves (source: Federal Reserve H.4.1 statistical release; Federal Reserve Bank of New York SOFR data; U.S. Treasury Daily Statement on the TGA). For flow confirmation within crypto, monitor net stablecoin issuance and transfer volumes as a proxy for on-chain dollar liquidity alongside macro funding indicators (source: Coin Metrics network data; Federal Reserve H.4.1; U.S. Treasury reporting).

According to @godbole17 on X on Dec 10, 2025, the Fed’s Reserve Management Purchase buys only short-term T-bills to keep bank reserves ample, is temporary and operational, does not target long-term rates or credit spreads, and is neutral for the monetary policy stance, not intended to stimulate the economy (source: @godbole17). According to @godbole17, quantitative easing buys long-term Treasuries and MBS to lower long-term yields, stimulate credit, expand liquidity aggressively, and boost asset prices by changing financial conditions (source: @godbole17). According to @godbole17, traders should not conflate RMP with QE when positioning in liquidity-sensitive assets such as BTC and ETH, because only QE is designed to ease financial conditions and lift asset prices (source: @godbole17).

According to @godbole17, the post comments on a movie being targeted and provides no market data or crypto asset references, indicating no actionable trading signal for digital assets at this time (Source: X post by @godbole17 on Dec 9, 2025).

According to @godbole17, many crypto-native professionals are now presenting themselves as exchange-rate, central bank, and macro experts (source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 9, 2025). @godbole17 adds that in 2021–2022, some in crypto argued that discussing macro made the industry look bad (source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 9, 2025). Traders can treat this as a sentiment signal that macro discourse is becoming more prevalent in crypto communities, guiding attention toward exchange-rate dynamics and central bank policy narratives (source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 9, 2025).

According to @godbole17, the latest U.S. National Security Strategy signals a pivot back to the Monroe Doctrine, prioritizing Western Hemisphere control and transactional global ties, which he states marks a strategic refocus driven by the cost of geography (source: @godbole17, X, Dec 7, 2025). According to @godbole17, sustaining distant power projection drains finances and compels fiscal and monetary overstretch, a macro risk factor explicitly highlighted by him that is relevant for liquidity‑sensitive markets including crypto such as BTC and ETH and for headline risk around Taiwan, India, and China (source: @godbole17). According to @godbole17, adversaries exploit overextension and domestic imbalances to keep regional flashpoints simmering, reinforcing persistent policy overstretch, while he adds that nations should respond with tech upgrades, economic interdependence, and strategic partnerships, a policy path he frames as important for how risk‑asset conditions evolve (source: @godbole17).

According to @godbole17 on X on Dec 7, 2025, the White House 2025 National Security Strategy mentions AI and quantum computing but makes no reference to crypto, blockchain, or a crypto strategic reserve, citing the White House 2025 National Security Strategy PDF. According to @godbole17 on X, the strategy signals re-industrialization and expanded fiscal-military spending, which he says gold has been pricing, citing the White House 2025 National Security Strategy PDF. According to @godbole17 on X, he frames the posture as a return of the Monroe Doctrine that supports a multipolar setup if peers step up, citing the White House 2025 National Security Strategy PDF. According to @godbole17 on X, he adds that the era of mass migration is over and that the US will remain active in the Indo-Pacific, citing the White House 2025 National Security Strategy PDF. According to @godbole17 on X, for BTC traders the lack of any crypto language removes a direct policy catalyst from this document while AI remains a named priority, citing the White House 2025 National Security Strategy PDF.

According to @godbole17, the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy highlights AI and quantum computing but contains no explicit reference to cryptocurrencies or any crypto strategic reserve, as reflected in the published document, source: @godbole17 on X; whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf. The document underscores re-industrialization and elevated defense investment alongside sustained U.S. engagement in the Indo-Pacific, aligning with a pro-defense-spending stance noted by the author, source: whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf; @godbole17 on X. From a trading perspective, the author frames this as supportive for defense equities and consistent with strength in gold and pressure on long-duration bonds, while offering no policy tailwind for BTC or digital assets due to the omission, source: @godbole17 on X; whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf. The author also interprets the text as reviving a Monroe Doctrine posture and tighter migration, implying a tilt toward multipolar risk and geopolitics-led rotations that traders may weigh, source: @godbole17 on X; whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf.

According to @godbole17, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 6%-6.5% in 2026, driving capital flight from emerging markets and broad risk-off pressure on tech stocks and altcoins, based on his published outlook on Dec 3, 2025. According to @godbole17, the first confirmation signal to watch would be a correction or sell-off in gold. According to @godbole17, in that environment USD-pegged stablecoins are likely to gain, followed by a potential shift to yield curve control (YCC). According to @godbole17, this sequence outlines a trading roadmap: watch gold for the early signal, then position for higher U.S. yields, EM stress, and altcoin downside risk.

According to @godbole17, INR is depreciating alongside broader EM currencies while the crypto market is selling off. Source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 3, 2025. According to @godbole17, a breakout in the 10-year yield is likely next, signaling further volatility that could pressure risk assets, including crypto. Source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 3, 2025. According to @godbole17, the linkage between INR, EM FX, and the 10-year yield is key for near-term crypto price action. Source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 3, 2025.

According to @godbole17, BTC and the broader crypto market are on thin ice as ETF selling has paused but new inflows remain paltry. Source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 2, 2025. He adds that the ETH-BTC volatility spread continues to slide. Source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 2, 2025. His assessment indicates a cautious near-term trading backdrop for BTC and ETH pairs. Source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 2, 2025.

According to @godbole17, Bank of Japan rate hike discussions and firming JGB yields are influencing U.S. Treasury markets, with the U.S. 10-year yield appearing to carve out a head-and-shoulders pattern, a setup traders are watching closely for directionality signals, source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 1, 2025. In classical technical analysis, a confirmed head-and-shoulders top in yields signals a potential downside reversal in the rate and upside in Treasury prices, which affects risk positioning across assets, source: CMT Association curriculum; John J. Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. Crypto traders monitor U.S. rate moves because shifts in yields can alter liquidity and risk appetite that have shown varying historical correlations with digital assets including BTC and ETH, source: Coin Metrics, State of the Network; CME Group education. The near-term trading takeaway is to watch the 10-year neckline and BOJ policy headlines for confirmation and cross-asset volatility that could impact BTC and ETH positioning, source: @godbole17 on X; CMT Association curriculum.

According to @godbole17, U.S. engagement with the C5+1 is centered on rare earth elements and energy, with Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan highlighted for rare earth potential and Turkmenistan for large natural gas reserves, offering India supply-chain optionality tied to manufacturing and energy security (source: @godbole17 on X). Economic Times reports India–Kazakhstan bilateral trade was about 1 billion dollars in 2024 with a joint goal of 3 billion and both sides reaffirming deeper cooperation at a high-level dialogue in Almaty, signaling scope for long-term offtake deals and corridor alignment via the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) (source: The Economic Times). Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan being members of the Eurasian Economic Union shapes tariff and transit dynamics that Indian exporters and importers must price into logistics and contract structures (source: @godbole17 on X). Given Kazakhstan’s historic share of global BTC mining hash rate, shifts in regional energy reliability and cross-border routes can influence miner operating costs and hash distribution that crypto traders track for network security and difficulty trends (source: Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, Cambridge Judge Business School). To capture upside while hedging geopolitical cyclicality, @godbole17 recommends India accelerate the INSTC, deepen non-resource economic links, expand human capital and digital-tech cooperation, and secure long-duration energy contracts to stand out as a patient, reliable partner (source: @godbole17 on X).

According to @godbole17, USDJPY is under pressure after an unexpected hawkish take by the BOJ. Source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 1, 2025. He argues the current yen strength could be a trap because rates cannot rise much further without risking a fiscal crisis, implying continued yen weakness. Source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 1, 2025. From a technical perspective, he notes today’s USDJPY pullback may be part of a breakout-and-retest setup. Source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 1, 2025.

According to @godbole17, Bitcoin’s monthly MACD has flipped negative and moved below the zero line, a condition he notes has historically aligned with BTC bear-market phases. Source: @godbole17 on X, Dec 1, 2025. A sub-zero MACD denotes dominant bearish momentum on higher timeframes and can persist for extended periods before reversing, which traders treat as a risk-off regime. Source: Investopedia MACD explainer. During sub-zero regimes, rallies toward the MACD signal line are often sold and trend-following approaches favor reducing long exposure until a decisive recapture of the zero line confirms momentum reversal. Source: StockCharts ChartSchool on MACD and John J. Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets.

According to @godbole17, there was no mention of Taiwan even as President Donald Trump approved his first arms sales package to Taiwan, which he interprets as signaling continued support (source: @godbole17 on X, Nov 25, 2025). He also warns that if the U.S. becomes the downward-trending pole or a US-China G2 emerges, this support could quickly wane, with similar concerns applying to India (source: @godbole17 on X, Nov 25, 2025). For traders, the post highlights a live geopolitical risk factor around Taiwan and India exposures that can affect positioning and headline-driven volatility across related assets and FX (source: @godbole17 on X, Nov 25, 2025).

According to @godbole17, the one-year call-put skew remains biased toward puts, highlighting continued preference for downside protection in long-dated options markets (source: @godbole17 on X, Nov 25, 2025). In options markets, a put-biased skew means implied volatility for puts is higher than for calls of the same maturity, indicating stronger demand for hedges against downside moves (source: Cboe Options Institute; CFA Institute). For trading, a persistent long-dated put-skew typically supports risk-management structures such as protective puts or collars and can inform volatility-relative trades that sell richer put IV versus call IV with appropriate risk controls (source: Cboe Options Institute; CFA Institute).

According to @godbole17, Bitcoin (BTC) is at a make-or-break support level today (Nov 25, 2025), marking a decisive area for near-term direction (source: @godbole17). According to @godbole17, the post highlights this support as a decision point that will define BTC’s immediate market structure depending on whether it holds or breaks (source: @godbole17).

According to @godbole17, a post on X alleges multiple rail sabotage attempts in India over the past three to four years and links to a Kyiv Independent post for context. Source: @godbole17 on X (Nov 24, 2025); Kyiv Independent link included in the post. The cited post does not include official confirmation, quantitative data, or timing details, so the claim is unverified based on the materials provided. Source: @godbole17 on X. From a trading perspective, given only a single, uncorroborated social post, there is no verified, actionable catalyst identified for Indian railway equities, INR, or crypto risk sentiment (BTC, ETH) at this time. Source: @godbole17 on X.