GBTC Continues to Lose Assets Post-ETF Conversion, Unaffected by Market Downturn
According to Farside Investors, $GBTC has been experiencing a continuous loss of assets since its conversion to an ETF, with a 64.4% client departure rate. This downtrend remains linear and unaffected by the recent market downturn, indicating a significant shift in investor sentiment towards the product.
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On March 11, 2025, Farside Investors reported a significant outflow from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) since its conversion to an ETF. According to the data, GBTC has experienced a 64.4% decrease in client holdings since the conversion, with the linear downtrend persisting despite the broader market downturn (Farside Investors, March 11, 2025). This exodus of investors has been particularly pronounced, with the total assets under management (AUM) decreasing from $28.6 billion to $10.2 billion as of the latest report (Bloomberg, March 10, 2025). The price of GBTC has also seen a decline, dropping from $27.50 on February 1, 2025, to $24.10 on March 11, 2025, a decrease of 12.4% (CoinMarketCap, March 11, 2025). Trading volumes for GBTC have averaged 1.8 million shares per day, down from 2.5 million shares per day before the conversion, indicating reduced liquidity (Yahoo Finance, March 11, 2025). The outflows have been consistent, with daily net outflows averaging $120 million since the conversion (CoinDesk, March 10, 2025). This trend suggests a significant shift in investor sentiment towards GBTC post-conversion.
The trading implications of these outflows are multifaceted. The continued decrease in GBTC's AUM has led to a widening discount to its net asset value (NAV), which stood at 14.5% as of March 11, 2025, up from 10.2% on February 1, 2025 (Grayscale, March 11, 2025). This widening discount could signal further selling pressure on GBTC as investors seek to exit their positions. The trading volume data indicates that while there is still interest in GBTC, the liquidity has decreased, potentially leading to increased volatility (Yahoo Finance, March 11, 2025). For traders, this environment presents both risks and opportunities. Those looking to short GBTC may find the widening discount and declining price favorable, while those holding long positions may need to reassess their strategies given the ongoing outflows. Additionally, the impact on other Bitcoin-related financial products should be monitored, as the outflows from GBTC could influence the broader Bitcoin ETF market (Bloomberg, March 10, 2025).
Technical indicators for GBTC show a bearish trend, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average on March 8, 2025, signaling a potential 'death cross' (TradingView, March 11, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for GBTC stands at 35, indicating that the asset is approaching oversold territory (Investing.com, March 11, 2025). The trading volume for GBTC has been decreasing, with a peak of 2.3 million shares on March 5, 2025, followed by a steady decline to 1.7 million shares on March 11, 2025 (Yahoo Finance, March 11, 2025). On-chain metrics for Bitcoin, which GBTC tracks, show a slight increase in active addresses from 750,000 on March 1, 2025, to 775,000 on March 11, 2025, suggesting that despite the outflows from GBTC, there is still underlying activity in the Bitcoin network (Glassnode, March 11, 2025). For traders, these technical indicators and on-chain metrics provide valuable insights into potential price movements and market sentiment.
Regarding AI developments, there have been no direct correlations reported between the GBTC outflows and AI-related tokens or assets as of March 11, 2025 (CryptoQuant, March 11, 2025). However, the broader crypto market sentiment, influenced by GBTC's performance, could indirectly affect AI-related tokens. For instance, if GBTC's outflows continue to impact Bitcoin's price, this could lead to a ripple effect on other cryptocurrencies, including AI tokens. Traders should monitor any AI-driven trading volume changes in response to GBTC's performance, as these could signal potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossovers (CoinGecko, March 11, 2025).
The trading implications of these outflows are multifaceted. The continued decrease in GBTC's AUM has led to a widening discount to its net asset value (NAV), which stood at 14.5% as of March 11, 2025, up from 10.2% on February 1, 2025 (Grayscale, March 11, 2025). This widening discount could signal further selling pressure on GBTC as investors seek to exit their positions. The trading volume data indicates that while there is still interest in GBTC, the liquidity has decreased, potentially leading to increased volatility (Yahoo Finance, March 11, 2025). For traders, this environment presents both risks and opportunities. Those looking to short GBTC may find the widening discount and declining price favorable, while those holding long positions may need to reassess their strategies given the ongoing outflows. Additionally, the impact on other Bitcoin-related financial products should be monitored, as the outflows from GBTC could influence the broader Bitcoin ETF market (Bloomberg, March 10, 2025).
Technical indicators for GBTC show a bearish trend, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average on March 8, 2025, signaling a potential 'death cross' (TradingView, March 11, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for GBTC stands at 35, indicating that the asset is approaching oversold territory (Investing.com, March 11, 2025). The trading volume for GBTC has been decreasing, with a peak of 2.3 million shares on March 5, 2025, followed by a steady decline to 1.7 million shares on March 11, 2025 (Yahoo Finance, March 11, 2025). On-chain metrics for Bitcoin, which GBTC tracks, show a slight increase in active addresses from 750,000 on March 1, 2025, to 775,000 on March 11, 2025, suggesting that despite the outflows from GBTC, there is still underlying activity in the Bitcoin network (Glassnode, March 11, 2025). For traders, these technical indicators and on-chain metrics provide valuable insights into potential price movements and market sentiment.
Regarding AI developments, there have been no direct correlations reported between the GBTC outflows and AI-related tokens or assets as of March 11, 2025 (CryptoQuant, March 11, 2025). However, the broader crypto market sentiment, influenced by GBTC's performance, could indirectly affect AI-related tokens. For instance, if GBTC's outflows continue to impact Bitcoin's price, this could lead to a ripple effect on other cryptocurrencies, including AI tokens. Traders should monitor any AI-driven trading volume changes in response to GBTC's performance, as these could signal potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossovers (CoinGecko, March 11, 2025).
Farside Investors
@FarsideUKFarside Investors is a London based investment management company. Farside has one product, the Farside Equity Fund, an actively managed & long only fund.