According to @StockMKTNewz, Kalshi event markets are pricing roughly a 50% chance that Bitcoin (BTC) will trade below $80,000 at some point in 2025; source: twitter.com/StockMKTNewz/status/1993397453970973019 and x.com/WOLF_Financial/status/1993397226153123849 (posted Nov 25, 2025). This 50% implied probability signals a balanced risk of a sub-$80K drawdown that traders should factor into risk management and positioning around the $80,000 level; source: @StockMKTNewz post cited above. Tactically, aligning exposure with these event-market odds can include downside hedges such as protective puts or collars centered near the $80,000 strike and disciplined stop levels to manage tail risk; source: risk-management guidance derived from the 50% probability reported by @StockMKTNewz (tweet link above).