According to @lisaabramowicz1, the cost of protecting Oracle’s debt via credit default swaps (CDS) reached its highest level since March 2009 yesterday and has more than tripled since June (source: @lisaabramowicz1 on X, Dec 3, 2025). CDS prices represent the cost of insuring against issuer default, so elevated CDS levels signal higher perceived credit risk (source: ISDA, Credit Default Swaps overview). Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have shown materially higher co-movement with U.S. equities since 2020, indicating that macro and credit risk shocks can transmit into crypto risk sentiment (source: IMF, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, 2022). Given these linkages, traders may monitor BTC and ETH for volatility if tech credit stress persists and use Oracle’s CDS trajectory as a barometer of risk appetite (source: IMF 2022; @lisaabramowicz1 on X, Dec 3, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Oracle’s (ORCL) 5-year credit default swaps rose to 118 basis points last week, the highest since the 2022 bear market, tripling since July and implying roughly $118,000 in protection cost per $10 million of principal (source: The Kobeissi Letter). According to The Kobeissi Letter, this sharp CDS widening reflects a material increase in perceived credit risk and hedging costs that traders monitor alongside ORCL equity and tech credit to assess potential spillover into broader risk assets, including BTC and ETH (source: The Kobeissi Letter).

According to Lex Sokolin, Bitcoin (BTC) emerges as a direct response to persistent issues in the traditional financial system, including credit default swaps, fractional reserve banking, negative interest rates, and unlimited money printing. These systemic risks highlight the role of BTC as a decentralized alternative, offering transparent and finite monetary policy. For traders, Sokolin's analysis suggests that Bitcoin's value proposition is strengthened during periods of financial instability, potentially driving higher demand and price volatility in the crypto markets. Source: Lex Sokolin.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, credit markets are now pricing US credit as if it were rated BBB+, which is six notches below its official AA+ rating, and just three levels above non-investment grade status (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 18, 2025). This repricing is evident in credit default swap (CDS) market data and reflects growing investor concerns over the US fiscal outlook. For cryptocurrency traders, this elevated perception of US credit risk could fuel volatility across crypto markets, as traditional investors may seek alternative assets like BTC and ETH during periods of financial instability. Monitoring the CDS spreads and their correlation with BTC price action can provide valuable trading signals.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the cost of insuring US government debt via 1-year credit default swaps (CDS) has surged to 52 basis points, marking the highest level since the 2023 debt ceiling crisis and the highest in 12 years excluding that event (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 31, 2025). This elevated default risk has triggered renewed market volatility, leading traders to seek alternative assets like Bitcoin and stablecoins as hedges against potential US Treasury instability. Rising CDS premiums indicate growing concerns over US fiscal stability, which historically correlates with increased capital flows into the cryptocurrency market as investors look for safe-haven assets in times of sovereign risk.