According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 has outperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index by 34% over the past three years, the widest three-year performance gap in history, surpassing the prior 32% record from 1997 to 1999, source: @charliebilello. According to @charliebilello, the 1997 to 1999 episode was followed by a sharp reversal and seven years of Equal Weight outperformance, underscoring elevated concentration risk when cap-weight leadership becomes extreme, source: @charliebilello. According to @charliebilello, traders should note that this update is about equity market breadth and dispersion; no crypto-specific impacts were provided by the source, source: @charliebilello.

According to Charlie Bilello, international equities gained 33% in 2025 versus 18% for US equities, a 15% outperformance that is the largest spread since 1993, source: Charlie Bilello, Twitter, Jan 1, 2026. For crypto traders, the IMF has documented that Bitcoin’s returns have moved more in sync with equities since 2020, implying that equity-led risk-on regimes can transmit to BTC and ETH performance, source: IMF, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 11, 2022. This update includes no direct crypto price or flow data, so positioning should be validated against crypto-specific metrics such as BTC spot volumes and stablecoin liquidity in addition to the equity backdrop, source: Charlie Bilello, Twitter, Jan 1, 2026.

According to Charlie Bilello, he posted a list of the worst performing S&P 500 stocks from the prior year on January 1, 2026, highlighting the benchmark’s biggest laggards for 2025; Source: https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/2006761081277133137. The post provides a consolidated view of S&P 500 underperformers that can be used to identify equity laggards at the start of the new year, as presented by the author; Source: https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/2006761081277133137. The post is equity-focused and does not mention cryptocurrencies or digital assets, so any crypto market impact is not addressed by the source; Source: https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/2006761081277133137.

According to @charliebilello, a list of the best performing S&P 500 stocks for 2025 was posted on Jan 1, 2026, highlighting last year's top gainers among index constituents for traders to review at the start of the new year. source: X post by @charliebilello on Jan 1, 2026 https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/2006757843664515350 The post provides a ready reference of last year's leaders that traders can use as a universe for momentum tracking and sector-strength analysis going into 2026. source: X post by @charliebilello on Jan 1, 2026 https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/2006757843664515350 For crypto context, cross-asset desks can align equity winners with BTC and ETH regime monitoring to gauge risk appetite alongside the equity list shared in the post. source: X post by @charliebilello on Jan 1, 2026 https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/2006757843664515350

According to @charliebilello, gold returned +64% in 2025, ranking as the best-performing major asset, while Bitcoin fell 6%, the worst among major assets, source: X post on Jan 1, 2026 https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/2006738768628433299. He adds that this is the inverse of 2013 and the figures imply a 70 percentage-point GLD over BTC outperformance for 2025, source: X post above and his newsletter https://bilello.blog/newsletter.

According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 registered 39 additional all-time highs in 2025, confirming persistent strength in US large-cap equities (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 31, 2025). For trading, clusters of new highs typically align with momentum and positive return autocorrelation that trend-following strategies seek to exploit (sources: Jegadeesh and Titman 1993; Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen 2012). Since 2020, crypto assets have shown higher co-movement with US equities, meaning sustained SPX risk-on regimes can coincide with tailwinds for BTC and ETH beta exposure (sources: IMF research by Adrian, Iyer, and Qureshi 2022; BIS Quarterly Review 2022). Traders can watch volatility compression and breadth as confirmation, such as VIX levels for risk appetite and the prevalence of 52-week highs as a breadth signal, and then check BTC–equity rolling correlations for potential spillover (sources: Cboe VIX methodology; George and Hwang 2004 on 52-week-high momentum; IMF 2022 on rising crypto–equity correlations).

According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 ended 2025 up 17.9% on a total-return basis including dividends, exceeding nearly all expectations for the third straight year (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 31, 2025; bilello.blog/newsletter). No crypto or sector breakdowns were provided in the source, but the verified SPX year-end total return offers a clear benchmark for traders evaluating equity performance into year-end rebalancing and attribution (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 31, 2025).

According to @charliebilello on X on Dec 31, 2025, five of the Magnificent Seven underperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, with only Google and Nvidia outperforming; the source notes this is a very different picture than 2023/2024. Based on the same source’s performance comparison, relative strength in 2025 was concentrated in GOOGL and NVDA versus the index.

According to @charliebilello, a post on X highlights Bitcoin returns since 2010 and includes a link to bilello.blog/newsletter for additional context (source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 31, 2025). This provides a consolidated historical reference of long-term BTC performance for assessing market cycles and price trends (source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 31, 2025).

According to Charlie Bilello, the S&P 500 ended 2025 up 17.9% on a dividend-inclusive basis, exceeding expectations for the year, with the update shared alongside the SPX ticker and his newsletter link. Source: Charlie Bilello, X post on Dec 31, 2025; bilello.blog newsletter. For crypto traders, this equity strength is relevant because Bitcoin and U.S. equities have shown higher return correlations since 2020, indicating shared risk sentiment that can transmit across markets. Source: International Monetary Fund, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync with Stocks, 2022. The IMF has also highlighted increasing spillovers from equity markets to crypto assets, reinforcing the need to track SPX moves when positioning BTC and ETH. Source: International Monetary Fund, Crypto-Stock Correlations and Financial Stability, 2022.

According to Charlie Bilello, 2025 total returns showed Gold GLD up 64% leading major assets, while Bitcoin BTC fell 6% and volatility note VXX fell 42% (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 31, 2025, https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/2006475332296351930). According to Charlie Bilello, developed ex-US equities VEA gained 35% and emerging markets IEMG rose 33%, outpacing the S&P 500 SPY at 18% and the Nasdaq 100 QQQ at 21% by 17 and 15 percentage points versus SPY, respectively (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 31, 2025, https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/2006475332296351930). According to Charlie Bilello, small caps IWM returned 13%, commodities DBC 8%, US bonds AGG 7%, cash BIL 4%, and REITs VNQ 3% in 2025 (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 31, 2025, https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/2006475332296351930). According to Charlie Bilello, GLD outperformed BTC by 70 percentage points and outperformed SPY by 46 percentage points in 2025 based on reported returns (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 31, 2025, https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/2006475332296351930). According to Charlie Bilello, QQQ outperformed SPY by 3 percentage points, while VXX declined 42% for the year, reflecting a large loss in long-volatility products (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 31, 2025, https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/2006475332296351930). According to Charlie Bilello, by year-end 2025 the cross-asset leaderboard ranked GLD first and BTC negative, with ex-US equities leading US large caps on total return (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 31, 2025, https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/2006475332296351930).

According to Charlie Bilello, the S&P 500 (SPX) ended 2025 up nearly 18%, exceeding broad expectations and offering a strong risk backdrop that many crypto traders track as a macro signal for cross-asset sentiment (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 31, 2025; bilello.blog/newsletter).

According to @charliebilello, the combined annual revenue of the seven largest US semiconductor companies rose 93% over the past two years to a record 451 billion dollars, indicating sector-leading topline momentum versus the broader market (source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 31, 2025). According to @charliebilello, overall S&P 500 revenues increased 11% in the same period, underscoring semiconductors’ outsized growth relative to index-level sales trends (source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 31, 2025). For crypto-focused traders, the post provides no direct linkage to digital assets or tokens such as BTC or ETH, so any crypto-market impact is not specified in the source (source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 31, 2025).

According to @charliebilello, OpenAI is paying about $1.5 million in stock-based compensation per employee to roughly 4,000 staff in 2025. Source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 31, 2025. According to @charliebilello, that level is nearly half of OpenAI’s 2025 revenue and equals 34x the average per-employee compensation of 18 large tech firms in the year before they went public. Source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 31, 2025. Based on those figures, the implied total SBC is roughly $6 billion for 2025, which would be expensed under US GAAP share-based payment rules and reduce reported operating margins. Source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 31, 2025; FASB ASC 718 Share-Based Payment. AI-linked crypto tokens rallied during the ChatGPT-driven AI boom in early 2023, with FET, AGIX, and OCEAN among notable gainers, underscoring the sensitivity of AI tokens to major AI-sector developments. Source: Reuters coverage of AI-related crypto token surge, Feb 2023.

According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 closed at another all-time high, marking its 38th record of the year. source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 24, 2025. Crypto traders should monitor BTC and ETH as Bitcoin’s rolling correlation with U.S. equities shifted between positive and near-zero in 2023–2024, making equity breakouts relevant for cross-asset risk transmission. source: Kaiko Research, 2024 correlation and market structure analyses.

According to @charliebilello, gold is up 69% year to date in 2025, making it the best-performing major asset, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 23, 2025; bilello.blog/newsletter. According to @charliebilello, Bitcoin is down 5% year to date in 2025, ranking as the worst-performing major asset, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 23, 2025; bilello.blog/newsletter. According to @charliebilello, this best-versus-worst spread between gold and Bitcoin has not occurred before in any calendar year and is the inverse of 2013, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 23, 2025; bilello.blog/newsletter.

According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 was down over 15% year to date on April 8 (the 4th worst start on record) but then rallied 38%, leaving it up 17% YTD and notching 37 all-time highs in 2025, highlighting a powerful momentum regime for risk assets, source: @charliebilello on X. IMF research documented a marked rise in BTC–S&P 500 co-movement since 2020, indicating that strong equity momentum can have greater relevance for crypto market risk and spillovers, source: IMF Blog by Tobias Adrian, Tara Iyer, and Mahvash S. Qureshi, January 2022.

According to @charliebilello, the VIX averaged 19.1 in 2025, slightly below its historical norm, indicating perceived volatility was higher than what the data show (source: Charlie Bilello on X, Dec 22, 2025; referenced video on YouTube). The VIX measures the market’s 30-day expected volatility for the S&P 500, and readings near 20 align with long-run averages while spikes above 30 are commonly associated with stressed risk conditions (source: Cboe Global Markets, VIX overview and historical context). For crypto traders, stronger post-2020 equity–crypto comovement means a near-normal VIX generally corresponds to less extreme cross-asset stress than high-VIX regimes seen in prior episodes (source: International Monetary Fund, 2022, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks).

According to @charliebilello, the VIX has averaged 19.1 in 2025, slightly below its historical norm, indicating that realized market stress was not extreme despite headlines, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 22, 2025. Cboe indicates the long-run VIX average is around 20, framing 19.1 as a typical risk regime rather than crisis-level volatility, source: Cboe VIX education and historical data. Because VIX reflects S&P 500 option-implied volatility, a 19 handle generally aligns with moderate index option premiums and less costly hedging than in high-vol spikes, source: Cboe VIX methodology. BIS research documents increased post-2020 equity–crypto co-movement, making equity volatility regimes relevant for BTC and ETH risk management, so a non-extreme VIX backdrop helps calibrate crypto position sizing and hedges, source: Bank for International Settlements, 2022 analysis on crypto–equity correlations.

According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 fell 1.2% yesterday, marking the 29th session in 2025 with a decline greater than 1%, which he notes is in line with the long-term average of 29 such large down days per year, highlighting that downside volatility is a normal feature of markets (source: Charlie Bilello). For trading, this means equity risk remains elevated but not abnormal, and positioning should account for routine large swings in SPX that can affect cross-asset risk appetite (source: Charlie Bilello). Crypto traders should note that equity selloffs have historically coincided with higher BTC–SPX return co-movements; IMF research documented that the BTC–S&P 500 daily return correlation rose from near zero in 2017–2019 to about 0.36 in 2020–2021, indicating higher spillover risk during risk-off episodes (source: IMF, 2022, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks). Monitoring the Cboe VIX, which measures expected SPX volatility, alongside BTC and ETH can help manage beta and leverage when equity downside accelerates (source: Cboe Global Markets; IMF, 2022).