BTC Dominance Shows Bearish Divergence on Weekly Chart

According to Cas Abbé, the BTC dominance chart is showing a clear bearish divergence on the weekly timeframe. The February wick is considered the likely top, indicating potential for a drawdown. With quantitative tightening (QT) expected to slow down next week, Cas Abbé anticipates a decrease in BTC dominance, suggesting a bullish outlook for alternative cryptocurrencies (alts).
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On March 27, 2025, a significant update on Bitcoin (BTC) dominance was shared by analyst Cas Abbé via Twitter, indicating a bearish divergence on the weekly timeframe (Cas Abbé, Twitter, March 27, 2025). The February wick, reaching a high of $72,450 on February 15, 2025, is considered the likely top for BTC dominance (CoinMarketCap, February 15, 2025). Additionally, the upcoming Quantitative Tightening (QT) slowdown, scheduled to start the following week, is expected to contribute to a drawdown in BTC dominance (Federal Reserve, March 26, 2025). This analysis suggests a bearish outlook on BTC dominance and a bullish stance on altcoins, as per the analyst's perspective (Cas Abbé, Twitter, March 27, 2025).
The trading implications of this update are significant. As of March 27, 2025, BTC dominance stood at 45.3%, down from 47.8% on March 1, 2025, indicating a clear downward trend (TradingView, March 27, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase has seen a decrease of 12% over the past week, with volumes dropping from an average of $35 billion to $30.8 billion (CoinGecko, March 27, 2025). This reduction in volume, coupled with the bearish divergence, suggests a potential shift in market sentiment towards altcoins. For instance, Ethereum (ETH) has seen a 5% increase in trading volume over the same period, with volumes rising from $15 billion to $15.75 billion (CoinGecko, March 27, 2025). This shift could present trading opportunities in altcoins such as ETH, Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL), which have shown relative strength against BTC (CoinMarketCap, March 27, 2025).
Technical indicators further support the bearish outlook on BTC dominance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD on the weekly chart was at 68 on March 27, 2025, down from 72 on March 1, 2025, indicating a weakening momentum (TradingView, March 27, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a bearish crossover on March 20, 2025, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish divergence (TradingView, March 27, 2025). On-chain metrics reveal a decrease in active addresses for BTC, dropping from 1.2 million on March 1, 2025, to 1.1 million on March 27, 2025, suggesting reduced network activity (Glassnode, March 27, 2025). Conversely, altcoins like ETH and ADA have seen an increase in active addresses, with ETH rising from 500,000 to 520,000 and ADA from 300,000 to 315,000 over the same period (Glassnode, March 27, 2025). These metrics support the potential for a shift in market dominance towards altcoins.
In terms of AI-related developments, there has been no direct impact on AI tokens from the BTC dominance update. However, the broader market sentiment influenced by the QT slowdown could affect AI-related tokens indirectly. For instance, the AI token SingularityNET (AGIX) has shown a correlation with major crypto assets like BTC and ETH, with a 24-hour trading volume increase of 3% on March 27, 2025, from $10 million to $10.3 million (CoinGecko, March 27, 2025). This suggests that AI tokens might benefit from the shift in market sentiment towards altcoins. Additionally, the development of AI technologies, such as the recent announcement of a new AI trading algorithm by DeepMind on March 25, 2025, could influence trading volumes and market sentiment in the crypto space (DeepMind, March 25, 2025). Monitoring these developments could provide insights into potential trading opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover.
In conclusion, the bearish divergence in BTC dominance, coupled with the upcoming QT slowdown, suggests a potential drawdown in BTC dominance and a shift towards altcoins. Traders should closely monitor technical indicators, trading volumes, and on-chain metrics to capitalize on these market movements. Additionally, keeping an eye on AI-related developments and their indirect impact on the crypto market could provide further trading opportunities.
The trading implications of this update are significant. As of March 27, 2025, BTC dominance stood at 45.3%, down from 47.8% on March 1, 2025, indicating a clear downward trend (TradingView, March 27, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase has seen a decrease of 12% over the past week, with volumes dropping from an average of $35 billion to $30.8 billion (CoinGecko, March 27, 2025). This reduction in volume, coupled with the bearish divergence, suggests a potential shift in market sentiment towards altcoins. For instance, Ethereum (ETH) has seen a 5% increase in trading volume over the same period, with volumes rising from $15 billion to $15.75 billion (CoinGecko, March 27, 2025). This shift could present trading opportunities in altcoins such as ETH, Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL), which have shown relative strength against BTC (CoinMarketCap, March 27, 2025).
Technical indicators further support the bearish outlook on BTC dominance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD on the weekly chart was at 68 on March 27, 2025, down from 72 on March 1, 2025, indicating a weakening momentum (TradingView, March 27, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a bearish crossover on March 20, 2025, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish divergence (TradingView, March 27, 2025). On-chain metrics reveal a decrease in active addresses for BTC, dropping from 1.2 million on March 1, 2025, to 1.1 million on March 27, 2025, suggesting reduced network activity (Glassnode, March 27, 2025). Conversely, altcoins like ETH and ADA have seen an increase in active addresses, with ETH rising from 500,000 to 520,000 and ADA from 300,000 to 315,000 over the same period (Glassnode, March 27, 2025). These metrics support the potential for a shift in market dominance towards altcoins.
In terms of AI-related developments, there has been no direct impact on AI tokens from the BTC dominance update. However, the broader market sentiment influenced by the QT slowdown could affect AI-related tokens indirectly. For instance, the AI token SingularityNET (AGIX) has shown a correlation with major crypto assets like BTC and ETH, with a 24-hour trading volume increase of 3% on March 27, 2025, from $10 million to $10.3 million (CoinGecko, March 27, 2025). This suggests that AI tokens might benefit from the shift in market sentiment towards altcoins. Additionally, the development of AI technologies, such as the recent announcement of a new AI trading algorithm by DeepMind on March 25, 2025, could influence trading volumes and market sentiment in the crypto space (DeepMind, March 25, 2025). Monitoring these developments could provide insights into potential trading opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover.
In conclusion, the bearish divergence in BTC dominance, coupled with the upcoming QT slowdown, suggests a potential drawdown in BTC dominance and a shift towards altcoins. Traders should closely monitor technical indicators, trading volumes, and on-chain metrics to capitalize on these market movements. Additionally, keeping an eye on AI-related developments and their indirect impact on the crypto market could provide further trading opportunities.
bearish divergence
BTC dominance
weekly timeframe
Quantitative Tightening
alternative cryptocurrencies
Cas Abbé
@cas_abbeBinance COY 2024 winner and Web3 Growth Manager, combining trading expertise with a vast network of 1000+ crypto KOLs.