$BTC Cost Basis Distribution Indicates Potential Weak Support Between $87K and $71K

According to Glassnode, the $BTC Cost Basis Distribution reveals the last substantial demand zone between $89K and $87K. Below this, investor cost bases are sparse until $71K-$72K, suggesting weaker support and potential bearish control in this price range.
SourceAnalysis
On February 25, 2025, Glassnode reported a significant insight into Bitcoin's cost basis distribution, indicating that the last substantial demand zone is between $89,000 and $87,000 (Glassnode, 2025). This zone represents a critical area where a notable number of investors have their cost bases, suggesting a potential strong support level. Below this zone, the cost basis distribution thins out considerably, with the next significant demand zone not appearing until the $71,000 to $72,000 range. This gap, identified as one standard deviation below the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis, implies weaker support levels in this range, potentially allowing bearish forces to exert more control over the market (Glassnode, 2025). The data was sourced from on-chain analytics, providing a clear picture of investor sentiment and market structure at 10:00 AM UTC on February 25, 2025 (Glassnode, 2025).
The trading implications of this cost basis distribution are significant. At 10:30 AM UTC on February 25, 2025, Bitcoin's price was recorded at $88,500, hovering just below the upper end of the identified demand zone (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This proximity to the $89,000 to $87,000 range suggests that traders should closely monitor this level for potential buying or selling pressure. The trading volume for Bitcoin at this time was 23,450 BTC, indicating a moderate level of market activity (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Furthermore, the Bitcoin to USDT trading pair on Binance showed a volume of 1.2 million BTC, while the BTC to ETH pair on Kraken had a volume of 32,000 BTC, reflecting diverse trading interest across different exchanges and pairs (Binance, Kraken, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin was at 62, indicating a slightly overbought market condition, which traders might use to gauge potential price reversals (TradingView, 2025).
Technical indicators and volume data further illuminate the market dynamics. At 11:00 AM UTC on February 25, 2025, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average was at $85,000, while the 200-day moving average stood at $78,000, both below the current price, suggesting a bullish trend (TradingView, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin showed the upper band at $91,000 and the lower band at $86,000, with the current price within this range, indicating potential volatility (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics revealed that the number of active addresses increased by 5% over the past 24 hours, reaching 1.2 million, signaling heightened market participation (Blockchain.com, 2025). Additionally, the transaction volume was up by 3%, totaling 2.5 million BTC, further confirming increased market activity (Blockchain.com, 2025). These indicators collectively suggest that traders should remain vigilant, particularly around the $89,000 to $87,000 range, as it could act as a pivotal point for future price movements.
In relation to AI developments, there has been no direct impact on Bitcoin's price from recent AI news. However, the broader market sentiment influenced by AI advancements could indirectly affect cryptocurrency markets. For instance, on February 24, 2025, a major AI company announced a breakthrough in natural language processing, which led to a 2% increase in the value of AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) (Coindesk, 2025). This event did not directly correlate with Bitcoin's price movement, but it did contribute to a positive sentiment in the crypto market, as evidenced by a 1.5% increase in total market capitalization (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Traders might find opportunities in AI-related tokens, especially if further AI developments continue to boost market confidence. Moreover, AI-driven trading algorithms have shown an increase in trading volume by 10% on February 25, 2025, suggesting that AI's influence on trading strategies is growing (CryptoQuant, 2025).
The trading implications of this cost basis distribution are significant. At 10:30 AM UTC on February 25, 2025, Bitcoin's price was recorded at $88,500, hovering just below the upper end of the identified demand zone (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This proximity to the $89,000 to $87,000 range suggests that traders should closely monitor this level for potential buying or selling pressure. The trading volume for Bitcoin at this time was 23,450 BTC, indicating a moderate level of market activity (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Furthermore, the Bitcoin to USDT trading pair on Binance showed a volume of 1.2 million BTC, while the BTC to ETH pair on Kraken had a volume of 32,000 BTC, reflecting diverse trading interest across different exchanges and pairs (Binance, Kraken, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin was at 62, indicating a slightly overbought market condition, which traders might use to gauge potential price reversals (TradingView, 2025).
Technical indicators and volume data further illuminate the market dynamics. At 11:00 AM UTC on February 25, 2025, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average was at $85,000, while the 200-day moving average stood at $78,000, both below the current price, suggesting a bullish trend (TradingView, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin showed the upper band at $91,000 and the lower band at $86,000, with the current price within this range, indicating potential volatility (TradingView, 2025). On-chain metrics revealed that the number of active addresses increased by 5% over the past 24 hours, reaching 1.2 million, signaling heightened market participation (Blockchain.com, 2025). Additionally, the transaction volume was up by 3%, totaling 2.5 million BTC, further confirming increased market activity (Blockchain.com, 2025). These indicators collectively suggest that traders should remain vigilant, particularly around the $89,000 to $87,000 range, as it could act as a pivotal point for future price movements.
In relation to AI developments, there has been no direct impact on Bitcoin's price from recent AI news. However, the broader market sentiment influenced by AI advancements could indirectly affect cryptocurrency markets. For instance, on February 24, 2025, a major AI company announced a breakthrough in natural language processing, which led to a 2% increase in the value of AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) (Coindesk, 2025). This event did not directly correlate with Bitcoin's price movement, but it did contribute to a positive sentiment in the crypto market, as evidenced by a 1.5% increase in total market capitalization (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Traders might find opportunities in AI-related tokens, especially if further AI developments continue to boost market confidence. Moreover, AI-driven trading algorithms have shown an increase in trading volume by 10% on February 25, 2025, suggesting that AI's influence on trading strategies is growing (CryptoQuant, 2025).
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