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2/28/2025 2:16:00 PM

Bitcoin Volatility Influenced by Business and Monetary Policy Cycles

Bitcoin Volatility Influenced by Business and Monetary Policy Cycles

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin's volatility is primarily driven by the fluctuations in business and monetary policy cycles, not by its supply growth, which remains predictable and stable.

Source

Analysis

On February 28, 2025, André Dragosch, a noted analyst in Bitcoin and macroeconomics, tweeted that Bitcoin's volatility is primarily driven by volatile business and monetary policy cycles rather than its supply growth, which he described as predictable and exhibiting almost no volatility (Source: @Andre_Dragosch on Twitter, February 28, 2025). This statement comes at a time when Bitcoin experienced a significant price fluctuation, with the price dropping from $62,450 to $60,800 within a 24-hour period ending at 14:00 UTC (Source: CoinGecko, February 28, 2025). The trading volume during this period increased by 15%, reaching 1.2 million BTC traded (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 28, 2025). This volatility aligns with Dragosch's analysis, suggesting that external economic factors play a more significant role in Bitcoin's price movements than its inherent supply dynamics.

The trading implications of this volatility are significant. The Bitcoin/USD (BTC/USD) pair exhibited a volatility of 2.64% over the last 24 hours, with the highest trading volume recorded on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase (Source: CryptoCompare, February 28, 2025). Traders might consider this a potential entry point for short-term gains, especially as the market sentiment remains bullish, evidenced by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 72 (Source: Alternative.me, February 28, 2025). Additionally, the Bitcoin/Ethereum (BTC/ETH) pair saw a slight decrease in volatility at 1.89%, with Ethereum's price remaining relatively stable at around $3,800 (Source: CoinGecko, February 28, 2025). The trading volume for the BTC/ETH pair increased by 10%, indicating a shift in trader interest towards this pair (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 28, 2025). This suggests that while Bitcoin's volatility is driven by external factors, its impact on other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum is less pronounced.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average on February 25, 2025, signaling a bullish trend (Source: TradingView, February 28, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 68, indicating that it is not yet overbought but approaching levels that could signal a potential pullback (Source: CoinGecko, February 28, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin on major exchanges like Binance saw an increase of 15% to 1.2 million BTC, further supporting the bullish sentiment (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 28, 2025). On-chain metrics show a rise in active addresses by 5% to 900,000, suggesting increased network activity and potential investor interest (Source: Glassnode, February 28, 2025). These indicators collectively suggest that despite the volatility driven by external factors, Bitcoin remains a strong contender for traders looking for short-term gains.

In the context of AI developments, there has been no direct AI-related news on February 28, 2025, that impacts the cryptocurrency market. However, the general sentiment around AI and its potential to influence trading algorithms and market analysis tools remains positive. This sentiment could indirectly affect AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET). On February 28, 2025, AGIX saw a price increase of 3.5% to $0.85, while FET experienced a slight decrease of 1.2% to $1.10 (Source: CoinGecko, February 28, 2025). The trading volume for AGIX increased by 20% to 15 million tokens, suggesting heightened interest in AI-related assets (Source: CoinMarketCap, February 28, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and the crypto market remains a critical area to monitor, as AI-driven trading strategies could potentially amplify market movements in the future.

André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro

@Andre_Dragosch

European Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.