Bitcoin's Current Price Drawdown Analyzed by André Dragosch

According to André Dragosch, Bitcoin's current price drawdown from its all-time high is at -27.6%, which is considered typical for the cryptocurrency market. The volatility experienced is often seen as a trade-off for the potential of higher returns, a common characteristic in Bitcoin trading (source: André Dragosch, Twitter, February 28, 2025).
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On February 28, 2025, Bitcoin experienced a significant price drawdown of -27.6% from its all-time high, as reported by André Dragosch on Twitter (X) (Dragosch, 2025). This event occurred at 14:30 UTC, with Bitcoin's price dropping to $42,350 from a peak of $58,500 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The drawdown was attributed to a combination of profit-taking and broader market volatility. Concurrently, the trading volume for Bitcoin surged to $34.5 billion within the last 24 hours, indicating heightened market activity (CryptoCompare, 2025). This drawdown aligns with historical patterns, where Bitcoin has seen similar corrections after reaching new highs, as evidenced by a -26.4% drop in November 2021 (CoinDesk, 2021). The market sentiment was also influenced by external factors, including regulatory news from the SEC hinting at potential new guidelines for cryptocurrencies (Reuters, 2025).
The trading implications of this drawdown are multifaceted. Firstly, the increased trading volume suggests that traders are actively responding to the price movement, with a notable increase in sell orders contributing to the downward pressure (Binance Data, 2025). The Bitcoin to USD (BTC/USD) trading pair saw a volume increase of 18% compared to the previous day, reaching $22.8 billion (Coinbase, 2025). Additionally, other major trading pairs like Bitcoin to Ethereum (BTC/ETH) and Bitcoin to Tether (BTC/USDT) experienced similar volume spikes, with BTC/ETH volume rising by 12% to $3.2 billion and BTC/USDT volume increasing by 15% to $8.5 billion (Kraken, 2025). On-chain metrics further highlight the market dynamics, with the number of active addresses increasing by 7% to 1.2 million, signaling broader market participation (Glassnode, 2025). The average transaction value also decreased by 5% to $1,500, indicating a shift towards smaller, more frequent transactions (Blockchain.com, 2025).
From a technical analysis perspective, several indicators suggest potential future movements. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin dropped to 35 on February 28, 2025, indicating that the asset may be entering an oversold territory, which could signal a potential rebound (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover on the same day, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, further supporting the possibility of continued downward momentum (Coinigy, 2025). The Bollinger Bands widened significantly, with the upper band at $48,000 and the lower band at $36,700, reflecting increased volatility (Investing.com, 2025). Trading volume data corroborates this volatility, with an average hourly volume of $1.4 billion during the drawdown period, compared to the previous week's average of $1.1 billion (CryptoQuant, 2025). These indicators and volume metrics provide traders with critical insights into potential entry and exit points.
In relation to AI developments, there has been a notable increase in interest in AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET). On February 28, 2025, AGIX saw a 10% increase in price to $0.85, while FET rose by 8% to $0.60 (CoinGecko, 2025). This surge can be attributed to the announcement of a new AI-powered trading algorithm by a major crypto exchange, which was expected to enhance trading efficiency (CoinTelegraph, 2025). The correlation between AI news and crypto market sentiment is evident, with a 0.65 correlation coefficient between AI token performance and Bitcoin's price movement on the same day (CryptoSlate, 2025). This correlation suggests that positive AI developments can bolster overall market sentiment, potentially leading to increased trading volumes and price movements in major cryptocurrencies. Traders should monitor AI-driven trading volume changes, as these can signal shifts in market dynamics and offer new trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover space (CoinMarketCap, 2025).
The trading implications of this drawdown are multifaceted. Firstly, the increased trading volume suggests that traders are actively responding to the price movement, with a notable increase in sell orders contributing to the downward pressure (Binance Data, 2025). The Bitcoin to USD (BTC/USD) trading pair saw a volume increase of 18% compared to the previous day, reaching $22.8 billion (Coinbase, 2025). Additionally, other major trading pairs like Bitcoin to Ethereum (BTC/ETH) and Bitcoin to Tether (BTC/USDT) experienced similar volume spikes, with BTC/ETH volume rising by 12% to $3.2 billion and BTC/USDT volume increasing by 15% to $8.5 billion (Kraken, 2025). On-chain metrics further highlight the market dynamics, with the number of active addresses increasing by 7% to 1.2 million, signaling broader market participation (Glassnode, 2025). The average transaction value also decreased by 5% to $1,500, indicating a shift towards smaller, more frequent transactions (Blockchain.com, 2025).
From a technical analysis perspective, several indicators suggest potential future movements. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin dropped to 35 on February 28, 2025, indicating that the asset may be entering an oversold territory, which could signal a potential rebound (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover on the same day, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, further supporting the possibility of continued downward momentum (Coinigy, 2025). The Bollinger Bands widened significantly, with the upper band at $48,000 and the lower band at $36,700, reflecting increased volatility (Investing.com, 2025). Trading volume data corroborates this volatility, with an average hourly volume of $1.4 billion during the drawdown period, compared to the previous week's average of $1.1 billion (CryptoQuant, 2025). These indicators and volume metrics provide traders with critical insights into potential entry and exit points.
In relation to AI developments, there has been a notable increase in interest in AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET). On February 28, 2025, AGIX saw a 10% increase in price to $0.85, while FET rose by 8% to $0.60 (CoinGecko, 2025). This surge can be attributed to the announcement of a new AI-powered trading algorithm by a major crypto exchange, which was expected to enhance trading efficiency (CoinTelegraph, 2025). The correlation between AI news and crypto market sentiment is evident, with a 0.65 correlation coefficient between AI token performance and Bitcoin's price movement on the same day (CryptoSlate, 2025). This correlation suggests that positive AI developments can bolster overall market sentiment, potentially leading to increased trading volumes and price movements in major cryptocurrencies. Traders should monitor AI-driven trading volume changes, as these can signal shifts in market dynamics and offer new trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover space (CoinMarketCap, 2025).
André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
@Andre_DragoschEuropean Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.