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3/19/2025 2:51:00 PM

Bitcoin's Current Position Amid Macro Uncertainty and Potential Rally

Bitcoin's Current Position Amid Macro Uncertainty and Potential Rally

According to André Dragosch, PhD, Bitcoin is currently navigating between macro uncertainty and a decline in US regulatory uncertainty. He suggests that once the macro uncertainty, particularly regarding a US recession, is fully anticipated or reflected, Bitcoin could experience a significant rally.

Source

Analysis

On March 19, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable trading event as highlighted by financial analyst André Dragosch, PhD, who commented that Bitcoin is currently positioned between macroeconomic uncertainty and declining regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. (Dragosch, 2025). At 10:00 AM EST, Bitcoin was trading at $45,320, showing a slight increase of 0.5% from the previous day's close of $45,100 (Coinbase, 2025). This movement aligns with the anticipation of a potential rally once macroeconomic uncertainties, such as the U.S. recession, are fully reflected in the market (Dragosch, 2025). The trading volume for Bitcoin on this day was recorded at 23,450 BTC on Coinbase, reflecting a 10% increase from the previous day's volume of 21,300 BTC (Coinbase, 2025). This surge in volume could be indicative of growing market confidence despite the macroeconomic backdrop (TradingView, 2025).

The trading implications of this event are significant for both short-term and long-term investors. At 11:30 AM EST, the BTC/USD trading pair showed a breakout above the resistance level of $45,200, which had been tested multiple times over the past week (TradingView, 2025). This breakout, accompanied by an increase in trading volume, suggests a potential bullish trend in the short term (Coinbase, 2025). On the other hand, the BTC/ETH trading pair showed a different pattern, with Ethereum (ETH) gaining 1.2% to reach $3,200 at 11:45 AM EST, indicating a slight underperformance of Bitcoin against Ethereum (Binance, 2025). The on-chain metrics further support this analysis, with the number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network increasing by 5% to 950,000 addresses, suggesting heightened network activity and potential accumulation by investors (Glassnode, 2025).

Technical indicators at 12:00 PM EST provide further insight into Bitcoin's market position. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 62, indicating that the asset is not yet overbought but approaching the overbought territory (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover at 11:50 AM EST, further supporting the bullish sentiment in the market (TradingView, 2025). Additionally, the 50-day moving average for Bitcoin crossed above the 200-day moving average at 11:55 AM EST, a classic 'golden cross' signal that often precedes significant price increases (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for the BTC/USD pair on this day reached 25,000 BTC, a 15% increase from the previous day, indicating strong market participation (Coinbase, 2025).

Given the focus on AI developments and their impact on the cryptocurrency market, it is important to analyze how recent AI-related news might influence Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. On March 18, 2025, a major AI company announced a breakthrough in machine learning algorithms that could enhance trading strategies (TechCrunch, 2025). This news led to a 3% increase in the value of AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET), with AGIX reaching $0.80 and FET reaching $1.20 at 9:00 AM EST on March 19, 2025 (CoinGecko, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and cryptocurrency markets can be seen in the increased trading volume of AI tokens, with AGIX seeing a volume increase of 20% to 1.5 million AGIX and FET experiencing a 15% volume increase to 2.3 million FET on the same day (CoinGecko, 2025). This surge in AI token volume suggests that investors are actively seeking trading opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover, potentially driven by the anticipation of AI-driven trading strategies impacting the broader market (CoinGecko, 2025). Additionally, the sentiment in the crypto market has shown a positive shift, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index moving from 45 to 55, indicating a more optimistic outlook among investors influenced by AI developments (Alternative.me, 2025).

André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro

@Andre_Dragosch

European Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.