The cryptocurrency market is no stranger to bold price predictions, and a recent statement circulating on social media has caught the attention of Bitcoin traders and investors. On May 30, 2025, André Dragosch, PhD, shared a striking claim on Twitter, stating that according to the Credit Default Swap (CDS) model by Greg Foss, Bitcoin should already be trading at 252,000 USD per coin as of that date. This valuation, as highlighted by Dragosch, does not even account for the unfunded liabilities of G20 governments, which could further inflate the theoretical price. While this estimate is far above Bitcoin’s actual trading price at the time—hovering around 68,000 USD on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase at 10:00 AM UTC on May 30, 2025, per CoinGecko data—it provides a unique lens through which to analyze market sentiment and potential long-term value propositions for Bitcoin. This statement has sparked discussions among traders about whether such models can predict Bitcoin’s trajectory and how macroeconomic factors like government liabilities could influence crypto markets. For context, Bitcoin’s price had seen a modest 2.3 percent increase in the prior 24 hours, reaching a high of 69,200 USD at 8:00 AM UTC on May 30, 2025, before retracing slightly, reflecting ongoing volatility in the market. The trading volume during this period was approximately 25 billion USD across major pairs like BTC/USD and BTC/USDT, indicating sustained interest despite the gap between current prices and the CDS model’s projection.

From a trading perspective, the CDS model’s 252,000 USD valuation introduces an intriguing narrative for Bitcoin’s potential upside, but it also raises questions about actionable opportunities in the short term. The disconnect between the model’s estimate and Bitcoin’s real-time price of around 68,000 USD as of 12:00 PM UTC on May 30, 2025, suggests that traders should approach such predictions with caution. However, this narrative could fuel bullish sentiment, especially among institutional investors monitoring macroeconomic indicators like government debt and inflation risks. Cross-market analysis reveals that Bitcoin often correlates with risk-on assets during periods of economic uncertainty. For instance, on May 30, 2025, the S&P 500 index showed a slight uptick of 0.5 percent by 2:00 PM UTC, per Bloomberg data, potentially signaling a broader risk appetite that could spill over into crypto markets. Traders might consider leveraging this sentiment by targeting Bitcoin’s key resistance levels, such as 70,000 USD, which was tested earlier in the day at 9:00 AM UTC with a volume spike of 1.2 billion USD in the BTC/USD pair on Binance. Additionally, on-chain metrics from Glassnode indicate a 3.1 percent increase in Bitcoin wallet addresses holding over 1 BTC as of May 29, 2025, at 11:59 PM UTC, suggesting accumulation by larger holders—often a bullish signal for long-term price appreciation.

Diving into technical indicators, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stood at 58 as of 3:00 PM UTC on May 30, 2025, per TradingView data, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions but a potential for upward momentum if buying pressure persists. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a bullish crossover on the 4-hour chart at 1:00 PM UTC on the same day, aligning with the increased trading volume of 28 billion USD across exchanges in the last 24 hours. Market correlations further highlight Bitcoin’s interplay with traditional finance; for example, its 30-day correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq Composite Index was 0.62 as of May 30, 2025, per CoinMetrics data, reflecting a moderate positive relationship. This suggests that bullish movements in tech-heavy stock indices could bolster Bitcoin’s price action. Institutional money flow, as reported by CoinShares, showed a net inflow of 150 million USD into Bitcoin-focused funds for the week ending May 29, 2025, at 5:00 PM UTC, underscoring growing confidence among larger players despite the lofty CDS model valuation. For traders, this data points to potential entry points near support levels like 66,500 USD, last tested at 6:00 AM UTC on May 30, 2025, with stop-losses to mitigate downside risks.

In terms of stock-crypto market dynamics, the narrative around government liabilities and economic instability could drive further interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat devaluation. While the S&P 500’s 0.5 percent gain at 2:00 PM UTC on May 30, 2025, reflects cautious optimism in equities, Bitcoin’s trading volume surged by 15 percent compared to the prior day, reaching 28 billion USD by 4:00 PM UTC, suggesting a parallel risk-on sentiment in crypto markets. This correlation offers trading opportunities, particularly for those monitoring crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy, which saw a 1.8 percent increase to 1,650 USD per share by 3:00 PM UTC on May 30, 2025, per Yahoo Finance data. Institutional flows between stocks and crypto remain a key factor, as evidenced by the CoinShares report of consistent Bitcoin fund inflows. Ultimately, while the CDS model’s 252,000 USD target may seem distant, it underscores Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value in uncertain economic times, providing traders with a framework to assess long-term positioning against short-term volatility.

FAQ Section:
What is the CDS model mentioned for Bitcoin’s valuation?
The CDS model, as referenced by Greg Foss and shared by André Dragosch on May 30, 2025, is a theoretical framework that uses Credit Default Swap data to estimate Bitcoin’s value, suggesting a price of 252,000 USD based on current economic factors, excluding G20 unfunded liabilities.

How does Bitcoin correlate with stock market movements as of May 30, 2025?
Bitcoin showed a 30-day correlation coefficient of 0.62 with the Nasdaq Composite Index as of May 30, 2025, per CoinMetrics, indicating a moderate positive relationship where bullish stock market trends could support Bitcoin’s price action.