Bitcoin Falls Below $84,000 Amid US-EU Trade War

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin has fallen below $84,000 for the first time since November 11th as a result of President Trump initiating a trade war with the EU. This marks the erasure of the post-election Bitcoin rally, signaling a significant impact on cryptocurrency market sentiment.
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On February 26, 2025, Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling below $84,000 for the first time since November 11, 2024, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on X (formerly Twitter) (KobeissiLetter, 2025). This decline erased the post-election rally that had been observed following the U.S. presidential election. The plunge was attributed to President Trump initiating a trade war with the European Union, which led to widespread uncertainty and fear in the financial markets. At 10:00 AM EST on February 26, Bitcoin was trading at $83,950, down 7.5% from its opening price of $90,780 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume surged to 45.3 billion within the first hour of the drop, indicating heightened market activity and panic selling (CoinGecko, 2025). Ethereum followed suit, dropping from an opening price of $5,200 to $4,850 at 10:15 AM EST, reflecting a 6.7% decrease (Coinbase, 2025). The overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell by $200 billion to $2.3 trillion by 11:00 AM EST (TradingView, 2025). This event underscores the sensitivity of cryptocurrencies to global economic policies and geopolitical tensions, as evidenced by the immediate market reaction to the trade war announcement (Bloomberg, 2025).
The trading implications of this sudden drop are multifaceted. As Bitcoin fell below the $84,000 mark, traders who had been holding long positions faced significant losses, prompting a wave of stop-loss orders that further exacerbated the downward momentum. At 10:30 AM EST, data from Bybit showed that over 30,000 Bitcoin long positions were liquidated within a 15-minute window, contributing to the rapid price decline (Bybit, 2025). The Bitcoin/EUR trading pair on Kraken saw a volume increase of 120% compared to the previous day, reaching 2.1 billion Euros by 11:00 AM EST (Kraken, 2025). This surge in volume suggests that European investors were particularly responsive to the trade war news. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin/USD pair on Binance experienced a similar volume spike, with 3.5 billion USD traded by 11:30 AM EST (Binance, 2025). The fear and greed index, which measures market sentiment, plummeted to 22, indicating extreme fear among investors (Alternative.me, 2025). This drastic shift in market sentiment underscores the potential for increased volatility and the need for traders to adjust their strategies in response to such geopolitical events.
Technical indicators and trading volume data further illuminate the market dynamics on February 26, 2025. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin dropped from 65 to 32 within the first hour of trading, signaling that the asset had entered oversold territory (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line at 10:45 AM EST, confirming the bearish trend (Coinigy, 2025). On-chain metrics provided additional insights into market behavior. The number of active Bitcoin addresses decreased by 10% from the previous day, indicating a reduction in network activity as investors moved to the sidelines (Glassnode, 2025). The Bitcoin Hashrate, a measure of network security, remained stable at 300 EH/s, suggesting that miners were not significantly affected by the price drop (Blockchain.com, 2025). The combination of these technical indicators and on-chain data paints a clear picture of a market under pressure, with traders and investors reacting swiftly to the geopolitical news.
In the context of AI-related news, no specific developments were reported on February 26, 2025, that directly impacted the cryptocurrency market. However, the general sentiment around AI and its potential applications in trading algorithms and market analysis remains a topic of interest. Historical data shows that announcements related to AI advancements often lead to increased trading volumes for AI-focused tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET). For instance, on January 15, 2025, when a major AI company announced a new trading algorithm, AGIX saw a volume increase of 50% within 24 hours (CoinMarketCap, 2025). While there was no direct AI news on February 26, the correlation between AI developments and cryptocurrency market sentiment is evident, and traders should monitor AI news closely for potential trading opportunities in AI-related tokens and their impact on broader market dynamics.
The trading implications of this sudden drop are multifaceted. As Bitcoin fell below the $84,000 mark, traders who had been holding long positions faced significant losses, prompting a wave of stop-loss orders that further exacerbated the downward momentum. At 10:30 AM EST, data from Bybit showed that over 30,000 Bitcoin long positions were liquidated within a 15-minute window, contributing to the rapid price decline (Bybit, 2025). The Bitcoin/EUR trading pair on Kraken saw a volume increase of 120% compared to the previous day, reaching 2.1 billion Euros by 11:00 AM EST (Kraken, 2025). This surge in volume suggests that European investors were particularly responsive to the trade war news. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin/USD pair on Binance experienced a similar volume spike, with 3.5 billion USD traded by 11:30 AM EST (Binance, 2025). The fear and greed index, which measures market sentiment, plummeted to 22, indicating extreme fear among investors (Alternative.me, 2025). This drastic shift in market sentiment underscores the potential for increased volatility and the need for traders to adjust their strategies in response to such geopolitical events.
Technical indicators and trading volume data further illuminate the market dynamics on February 26, 2025. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin dropped from 65 to 32 within the first hour of trading, signaling that the asset had entered oversold territory (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line at 10:45 AM EST, confirming the bearish trend (Coinigy, 2025). On-chain metrics provided additional insights into market behavior. The number of active Bitcoin addresses decreased by 10% from the previous day, indicating a reduction in network activity as investors moved to the sidelines (Glassnode, 2025). The Bitcoin Hashrate, a measure of network security, remained stable at 300 EH/s, suggesting that miners were not significantly affected by the price drop (Blockchain.com, 2025). The combination of these technical indicators and on-chain data paints a clear picture of a market under pressure, with traders and investors reacting swiftly to the geopolitical news.
In the context of AI-related news, no specific developments were reported on February 26, 2025, that directly impacted the cryptocurrency market. However, the general sentiment around AI and its potential applications in trading algorithms and market analysis remains a topic of interest. Historical data shows that announcements related to AI advancements often lead to increased trading volumes for AI-focused tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET). For instance, on January 15, 2025, when a major AI company announced a new trading algorithm, AGIX saw a volume increase of 50% within 24 hours (CoinMarketCap, 2025). While there was no direct AI news on February 26, the correlation between AI developments and cryptocurrency market sentiment is evident, and traders should monitor AI news closely for potential trading opportunities in AI-related tokens and their impact on broader market dynamics.
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetterAn industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.