Bitcoin's 4-year cycle has been a hot topic among traders, with many questioning if it's truly dead amid recent market shifts. According to crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe, while the narrative of the cycle's demise circulates, a closer look at Bitcoin's valuation against gold reveals a different story. In a recent tweet dated December 27, 2025, van de Poppe highlights that Bitcoin is hitting its lowest valuation relative to gold since November 2023, driven by gold's massive upward run. This undervaluation positions Bitcoin for potential gains, as higher gold prices could pave the way for Bitcoin to follow suit. He discussed this with Dan Held on the New Era Finance podcast, emphasizing that the technical aspects of the 4-year cycle remain intact due to Bitcoin halvings occurring every four years. However, price action isn't solely dictated by this cycle, with various external factors influencing Bitcoin's trajectory.

Analyzing Bitcoin's Undervaluation Against Gold

From a trading perspective, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is a critical metric for assessing relative value. As of the analysis in van de Poppe's tweet, this ratio has dipped to levels not seen since late 2023, signaling that Bitcoin is massively undervalued compared to the precious metal. Gold has surged significantly, with spot prices climbing over 20% in 2024 alone, according to market data from that period. This disparity creates an attractive entry point for traders eyeing a rotation trade. Historically, when gold rallies, Bitcoin often catches up, especially during periods of economic uncertainty where both assets serve as hedges against inflation and fiat devaluation. Traders should monitor key support levels for Bitcoin around $90,000 to $95,000, based on recent price action, with resistance potentially at $110,000 if a breakout occurs. The halving event in April 2024 reinforced the cycle's technical foundation, reducing mining rewards and potentially tightening supply, which could drive prices higher in the coming months.

Trading Opportunities in the BTC-Gold Rotation

For those focused on cross-asset trading, the impending rotation from gold to Bitcoin presents compelling opportunities. Van de Poppe notes that as gold continues its ascent, Bitcoin's follow-through becomes more likely, potentially leading to a sharp rally. In terms of on-chain metrics, Bitcoin's network hash rate remains robust, indicating strong miner confidence despite price volatility. Trading volumes on major pairs like BTC/USD have shown increases during gold's peaks, with 24-hour volumes exceeding $50 billion on exchanges during late 2025 sessions. This correlation suggests that institutional flows, which have favored gold amid geopolitical tensions, may shift toward Bitcoin as spot ETFs gain traction. Traders could consider long positions in Bitcoin futures with stop-losses below recent lows, targeting a 15-20% upside if the ratio reverts to historical means. Additionally, pairing this with gold shorts could amplify returns in a rotation scenario, though risk management is essential given Bitcoin's volatility.

Beyond the cycle debate, broader market implications tie into stock market correlations, where Bitcoin often moves in tandem with tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq. If gold's strength reflects inflationary pressures, Bitcoin's role as digital gold could attract more capital from traditional investors. Sentiment indicators, such as the Fear and Greed Index, hovered in neutral territory around 50 in late 2025, suggesting room for bullish momentum. Van de Poppe's outlook aligns with this, predicting a rotation around the corner. For stock traders, this means watching for spillover effects; a Bitcoin surge could boost crypto-related stocks like mining companies or exchanges. In AI-driven markets, where blockchain intersects with decentralized computing, tokens linked to AI projects might also benefit from renewed Bitcoin interest. Ultimately, while the 4-year cycle's price predictability may be challenged, its foundational elements endure, offering traders a framework for navigating these dynamics.

To optimize trading strategies, focus on real-time indicators like the RSI, which for Bitcoin sat at 45 on daily charts in December 2025, indicating oversold conditions ripe for reversal. Volume-weighted average prices provide further insight, with BTC averaging $98,500 over the past week. Long-term holders should note that Bitcoin's market cap relative to gold is at multi-year lows, reinforcing the undervaluation thesis. As we approach 2026, monitoring macroeconomic factors like interest rate decisions will be crucial, as they could accelerate the rotation. This analysis underscores Bitcoin's resilience, blending cycle theory with tangible trading signals for informed decision-making.