Bitcoin traders are closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators as they signal potential shifts in the market cycle, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI poised for its first reading above 50 in over three years. According to analyst Michaël van de Poppe, this development marks the end of one of the longest bearish periods for manufacturing, which isn't favorable for the overall business cycle or for Bitcoin's performance. Despite this, Bitcoin has managed to rally, primarily driven by the launch and increased liquidity from spot ETFs, which have injected significant capital into the crypto space. As markets begin to wake up to these realities, traders should prepare for volatility, focusing on key support levels around $40,000 and resistance at $50,000 based on recent trading patterns observed in early 2026.

Comparing Macro Cycles: Lessons from Past Bitcoin Bears

The debate surrounding positive PMI readings and their impact on Bitcoin is heating up, as historical data shows instances where PMI remained positive yet Bitcoin entered bear markets. However, van de Poppe emphasizes that macroeconomic conditions have fundamentally changed this time around. In the last cycle, by the end of 2021, the Federal Reserve initiated quantitative tightening (QT) and aggressive interest rate hikes, which pressured risk assets like Bitcoin, leading to a prolonged downturn with trading volumes dropping significantly and on-chain metrics showing reduced activity. In contrast, the current environment features the start of quantitative easing (QE) amid a slightly weakening economy and anticipated interest rate decreases. This shift is already evident in the peaking of gold and silver prices last week, signaling the end of a restrictive macro period. For traders, this means watching Bitcoin's correlation with precious metals; a continued uptrend in gold could support BTC/USD pairs, with 24-hour trading volumes on major exchanges like Binance potentially surging if ETF inflows persist.

Trading Opportunities in the Evolving Macro Landscape

Looking ahead, van de Poppe predicts a strong and final bull run for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market over the next 1-3 years, crediting insights from analyst Brett for the supporting charts. This bullish outlook is rooted in the transition from QT to QE, which historically boosts liquidity and favors high-risk assets. Traders should consider long positions on BTC against fiat pairs, eyeing breakout levels above $55,000, while monitoring on-chain indicators such as active addresses and transaction volumes, which have shown resilience despite the PMI concerns. In terms of stock market correlations, the improving PMI could bolster sectors like technology and manufacturing stocks, indirectly benefiting AI-related tokens and crypto projects tied to decentralized finance. For instance, if the S&P 500 rallies on positive economic data, Bitcoin often follows suit, presenting cross-market trading opportunities. Institutional flows into ETFs have already pushed Bitcoin's market cap higher, with daily trading volumes exceeding $30 billion in recent sessions as of February 2026, highlighting robust liquidity that could sustain upward momentum.

To optimize trading strategies, focus on technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which recently hovered around 60, indicating room for growth without overbought conditions. Support from lower interest rates could weaken the US dollar, further propelling Bitcoin as a hedge asset. However, risks remain if the business cycle weakens more than expected, potentially leading to pullbacks. Traders are advised to use stop-loss orders below key moving averages, such as the 50-day EMA at approximately $45,000, to manage downside. Integrating this with real-time sentiment analysis, the current market setup suggests accumulating during dips, especially as ETF liquidity continues to dominate narratives. Overall, this macro pivot could mark the beginning of a multi-year uptrend, urging traders to align portfolios with emerging bullish signals while staying vigilant on global economic updates.

In summary, the interplay between PMI data, Fed policies, and crypto liquidity paints a compelling picture for Bitcoin's future. By prioritizing these factors, traders can navigate the evolving landscape, capitalizing on potential rallies while mitigating risks through data-driven decisions. With credits to van de Poppe and Brett for their analyses, the coming years promise exciting opportunities in crypto trading, blending macro insights with on-chain realities for informed strategies.