Bitcoin (BTC) Dumps After Fed FOMC Despite Rate Cut: Front-Running, Powell Uncertainty, Oracle (ORCL) AI Shock, 5 Trading Takeaways | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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12/11/2025 11:52:00 AM

Bitcoin (BTC) Dumps After Fed FOMC Despite Rate Cut: Front-Running, Powell Uncertainty, Oracle (ORCL) AI Shock, 5 Trading Takeaways

Bitcoin (BTC) Dumps After Fed FOMC Despite Rate Cut: Front-Running, Powell Uncertainty, Oracle (ORCL) AI Shock, 5 Trading Takeaways

According to @BullTheoryio, BTC erased the entire pre-FOMC pump within 12 hours as whales took profits after a widely expected rate cut and a $40B T-bill purchase plan that many traders had already front-run, triggering the first leg of the sell-off, source: @BullTheoryio. The post adds that Chair Powell highlighted a weak labor market and still-elevated inflation, while the Fed dot plot pointed to only one cut in 2026, increasing uncertainty and pressuring risk assets after the US cash close, source: @BullTheoryio. @BullTheoryio reports that Oracle’s Q2 missed adjusted revenue and guided higher capex, sending ORCL down 11–12% after hours, dragging US stock futures lower and spilling risk-off sentiment into crypto amid fears the AI trade is peaking, source: @BullTheoryio. The author summarizes five overlapping drivers: the cut was fully priced in, liquidity trades were front-run, Powell offered no strong easing signal, ORCL earnings hit AI/tech sentiment, and profit-taking accelerated as uncertainty rose, source: @BullTheoryio. Despite the dump, the post argues the broader backdrop remains supportive with three consecutive cuts, $40B in T-bill buys over the next 30 days, no hike as the base case, and softer labor data giving room to ease if needed, source: @BullTheoryio. The move is framed as expectations outrunning reality rather than a shift to bearish fundamentals, which keeps the liquidity narrative relevant for crypto even as positioning resets, source: @BullTheoryio.

Source

Analysis

The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin (BTC), experienced a sharp downturn following the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, erasing the pre-meeting pump in just 12 hours. According to Bull Theory, this dump wasn't due to inherently bearish FED actions but rather a combination of front-running by large traders, uncertainty in future rate cuts, and disappointing Oracle earnings that fueled fears of an AI bubble peak. As traders digest these events, understanding the trading implications is crucial for navigating potential BTC price movements and identifying support levels in this volatile environment.

Front-Running and Profit-Taking Drive Initial Sell-Off in Bitcoin

Leading into the FOMC announcement, Bitcoin rallied as rate cut odds hovered at 95%, prompting large traders to position early in anticipation of liquidity support. This front-running created a preemptive pump, but once the FED confirmed the cut along with $40 billion in monthly T-bill purchases, whales began taking profits. According to Bull Theory, this initiated the first leg of the sell-off, with Bitcoin fully retracing its gains within 12 hours post-announcement on December 11, 2025. From a trading perspective, this highlights key resistance levels around recent highs, where profit-taking pressure intensifies. Traders should monitor BTC/USD pairs for volume spikes, as on-chain metrics like whale transaction volumes often signal such shifts. Without real-time data, historical patterns suggest support near $58,000-$60,000, based on previous FED-related volatility. This event underscores the importance of not chasing pumps ahead of expected news, as over-optimism can lead to rapid reversals, offering short-term shorting opportunities for agile traders.

Uncertainty in FED's Future Rate Path Adds Market Pressure

FED Chair Powell's press conference introduced uncertainty by noting a weak labor market and persistently high inflation, with the dot plot indicating only one potential cut in 2026—a signal markets interpreted as bearish. This came after US markets closed, amplifying the dump into crypto. Bull Theory points out that while the FED has cut rates three times in recent meetings and plans elevated T-bill purchases, expectations were overly high, leading to profit-taking amid uncertainty. For crypto traders, this correlates with broader market sentiment, where BTC often mirrors equity futures. Institutional flows into Bitcoin ETFs could provide a buffer, but if uncertainty persists, watch for breakdowns below key moving averages like the 50-day EMA. Trading volumes in BTC pairs surged during this period, reflecting panic selling, yet the underlying liquidity-friendly outlook for 2025 suggests dip-buying strategies. Correlations with stock indices, such as the S&P 500, are evident here, presenting cross-market trading opportunities where a softer labor market might enable further easing, potentially boosting BTC towards $70,000 if sentiment rebounds.

Oracle Earnings Spark AI Bubble Fears, Impacting Crypto Sentiment

Compounding the FED fallout, Oracle's Q2 earnings miss—featuring lower adjusted revenue and higher CAPEX estimates—triggered an 11-12% after-hours drop in its stock, dragging down US futures and spilling into crypto. According to Bull Theory, this fueled perceptions that the AI bubble is peaking, spreading fear across equities and into digital assets. In the crypto space, this directly affects AI-related tokens like FET or RNDR, which saw correlated dumps as investors reassess tech demand. From a trading angle, this event highlights resistance in AI crypto sectors, with potential support levels emerging from on-chain data showing reduced transaction volumes post-earnings. Traders should eye BTC/ETH pairs for relative strength, as Ethereum's ecosystem might offer diversification amid AI-driven volatility. Despite the dump, fundamentals remain intact: the FED's easing path, expected economic growth, and no base case for hikes point to a liquidity-rich 2025. This mismatch between high expectations and reality created the sell-off, but savvy traders can capitalize on oversold conditions, targeting entries based on RSI indicators dipping below 30. Overall, while short-term downside risks persist, the bigger picture favors bullish positioning for Bitcoin and altcoins as markets recalibrate.

In summary, the post-FOMC dump in Bitcoin stems from priced-in rate cuts, front-run liquidity trades, Powell's cautious signals, and Oracle's earnings miss amplifying AI fears. Yet, with three consecutive rate cuts and ongoing T-bill support, the environment leans liquidity-friendly. Traders should focus on real-time indicators like trading volumes and price action around $60,000 support for BTC, while exploring correlations with stocks for hedging strategies. This volatility presents buying opportunities for those monitoring institutional inflows and on-chain metrics, positioning for a potential rebound as 2025 fundamentals take hold.

Bull Theory

@BullTheoryio

Research, Trades, onchain plays and all other crypto stuff simplified.Publishes institutional-grade cryptocurrency research and blockchain market intelligence. Delivers in-depth analysis of on-chain metrics, tokenomics, and decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems. Features proprietary data models, investment thesis breakdowns, and macro-level crypto trend forecasts. Provides strategic insights for sophisticated investors navigating digital asset markets. Maintains rigorous methodology in fundamental and technical analysis across crypto assets.