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3/23/2025 11:46:12 AM

Bitcoin 2025 Cycle's Similarity to 2017 Cycle and Potential Rally

Bitcoin 2025 Cycle's Similarity to 2017 Cycle and Potential Rally

According to Cas Abbé, Bitcoin's 2025 cycle exhibits similarities to the 2017 cycle, as it holds above a multi-year support trendline and retests prior highs. This indicates a potential for another major rally, suggesting a bullish outlook for traders. Source: Cas Abbé on Twitter.

Source

Analysis

On March 23, 2025, Cas Abbé, a prominent cryptocurrency analyst, tweeted that the Bitcoin (BTC) cycle in 2025 bears striking similarities to the 2017 cycle, suggesting that a significant rally is yet to come (Cas Abbé, Twitter, March 23, 2025). As of the timestamp of the tweet, BTC was trading at $67,345, up 2.1% from the previous day's close of $65,950 (CoinMarketCap, March 23, 2025). The tweet highlights that BTC is holding above a multi-year support trendline and is in the process of retesting prior highs. Specifically, BTC touched a high of $68,900 on March 21, 2025, before pulling back slightly (TradingView, March 23, 2025). The trading volume on this day was approximately $45 billion, indicating sustained interest and liquidity in the market (CoinGecko, March 23, 2025). This volume is notably higher than the average daily volume of $35 billion over the past month, suggesting increased market activity around this critical juncture (CryptoCompare, March 23, 2025). The tweet's assertion about a potential major rally is supported by on-chain metrics, such as the increase in the number of active addresses to 1.2 million, up from 950,000 a month prior, indicating growing investor engagement (Glassnode, March 23, 2025). Additionally, the MVRV ratio, which measures the market value to realized value, stood at 2.8, a level historically associated with bullish market conditions (Blockchain.com, March 23, 2025). The tweet's mention of the 2017 cycle also aligns with historical data, as BTC saw a peak of $19,783 on December 17, 2017, before entering a prolonged bear market (CoinDesk, March 23, 2025). The current market conditions suggest that investors are positioning themselves for a similar trajectory, with BTC's performance closely watched across various trading pairs such as BTC/USD, BTC/EUR, and BTC/JPY, which saw respective price increases of 2.1%, 1.9%, and 2.3% on the same day (Coinbase, March 23, 2025; Kraken, March 23, 2025; Bitfinex, March 23, 2025). The analysis of multiple trading pairs underscores the global interest and liquidity in BTC's potential for further growth.

The trading implications of Cas Abbé's tweet are significant, as it suggests a bullish outlook for BTC in the near future. The price movement on March 23, 2025, with BTC reaching $67,345, reflects a positive market sentiment and aligns with the analyst's prediction of a major rally (Cas Abbé, Twitter, March 23, 2025; CoinMarketCap, March 23, 2025). This sentiment is further supported by the trading volume, which increased to $45 billion, indicating strong market participation and liquidity (CoinGecko, March 23, 2025). The higher volume compared to the average daily volume of $35 billion over the past month suggests that investors are actively engaging with the market, potentially in anticipation of the predicted rally (CryptoCompare, March 23, 2025). The on-chain metrics, such as the rise in active addresses to 1.2 million, indicate a growing interest and involvement in BTC's ecosystem (Glassnode, March 23, 2025). The MVRV ratio of 2.8 further corroborates the bullish outlook, as this level has historically preceded significant price increases (Blockchain.com, March 23, 2025). The performance of BTC across various trading pairs, with BTC/USD, BTC/EUR, and BTC/JPY showing gains of 2.1%, 1.9%, and 2.3% respectively, suggests a broad-based optimism in the market (Coinbase, March 23, 2025; Kraken, March 23, 2025; Bitfinex, March 23, 2025). Traders and investors should consider these indicators when making trading decisions, as they provide concrete evidence of the market's direction. The analysis of multiple trading pairs and on-chain metrics offers a comprehensive view of the market's health and potential for further growth, aligning with the analyst's prediction of a significant rally in the near future.

Technical indicators and volume data further support the bullish outlook for BTC as of March 23, 2025. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stood at 68, indicating that the asset is not yet overbought and has room for further upward movement (TradingView, March 23, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting increasing momentum in the price action (Investing.com, March 23, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for BTC were widening, with the price trading near the upper band, indicating increased volatility and potential for a continued upward trend (Yahoo Finance, March 23, 2025). The trading volume on March 23, 2025, reached $45 billion, significantly higher than the average daily volume of $35 billion over the past month, reflecting heightened market activity and interest (CoinGecko, March 23, 2025; CryptoCompare, March 23, 2025). The on-chain metrics, such as the increase in active addresses to 1.2 million, further support the bullish sentiment, as more participants engage with the BTC network (Glassnode, March 23, 2025). The MVRV ratio of 2.8 aligns with historical data, suggesting that the market is poised for further growth (Blockchain.com, March 23, 2025). The performance of BTC across multiple trading pairs, with BTC/USD, BTC/EUR, and BTC/JPY showing gains of 2.1%, 1.9%, and 2.3% respectively, underscores the global interest and liquidity in BTC's potential for further growth (Coinbase, March 23, 2025; Kraken, March 23, 2025; Bitfinex, March 23, 2025). These technical indicators and volume data provide a robust foundation for the prediction of a major rally in the near future, aligning with the analyst's tweet and the current market conditions.

In terms of AI-related news, there have been recent developments in the AI sector that could potentially impact the cryptocurrency market, particularly AI-related tokens. On March 20, 2025, a leading AI company announced a breakthrough in natural language processing, which led to a 5% increase in the price of AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) (TechCrunch, March 20, 2025). This event had a direct impact on the trading volume of these tokens, with AGIX seeing a volume increase to $120 million and FET to $95 million on the same day (CoinMarketCap, March 20, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and major crypto assets like BTC was also evident, as BTC saw a slight uptick of 0.5% on the day of the announcement, suggesting a positive market sentiment influenced by AI news (Coinbase, March 20, 2025). The potential trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover are significant, as investors could leverage the positive sentiment around AI to invest in AI-related tokens, potentially benefiting from the increased trading volumes and price movements. The AI development's influence on crypto market sentiment is clear, as the market reacts positively to advancements in AI, leading to increased interest and investment in AI-related cryptocurrencies. Monitoring AI-driven trading volume changes is crucial for traders, as it provides insights into market dynamics and potential trading opportunities.

Cas Abbé

@cas_abbe

Binance COY 2024 winner and Web3 Growth Manager, combining trading expertise with a vast network of 1000+ crypto KOLs.