According to @DowdEdward, US stock market volatility is roughly two standard deviations below its historical average and his team expects mean reversion in 2026, citing charts from their 2026 outlook report (source: @DowdEdward). He also highlighted a separate post from @barkmeta claiming extreme stress in gold and silver and describing it as a black swan event, flagging cross-asset risk (source: @barkmeta via @DowdEdward). Based on @DowdEdward’s outlook, traders may prepare for a potential rise in realized and implied volatility into 2026 by reassessing hedges and optionality around SPX and VIX and monitoring precious metals for spillover signals (source: @DowdEdward).

According to @KobeissiLetter, net VIX futures positioning among asset managers has dropped to roughly negative $1.0 billion, marking the lowest level in at least 10 years. According to @KobeissiLetter, short volatility exposure has now surpassed the August 2024 peak that preceded a 280 percent surge in the VIX to 65. According to @KobeissiLetter, this positioning signals extreme bullishness from asset managers and echoes the buildup that came before the prior volatility spike.

According to @KobeissiLetter, retail options trading volume now accounts for a record 21.7% of total market activity, with the 21-day moving average rising by 10 points since 2021 and retail call option activity reaching up to 8.2 million contracts, indicating aggressive risk-taking by smaller accounts (source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Jan 18, 2026). Elevated net call buying has historically coincided with short-term volatility and subsequent return reversals in underlying equities, underscoring the need to monitor positioning and implied volatility into catalysts (source: Pan and Poteshman, The Review of Financial Studies, 2006). Because crypto has shown stronger co-movements with equities since 2020, a jump in equity options-driven volatility can transmit to BTC and ETH through risk sentiment channels, warranting close tracking of crypto implied vol and basis (source: IMF Blog, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 2022). Traders should monitor VIX term structure, single-stock gamma exposure, and in crypto the DVOL indices and CME BTC futures basis for early signs of volatility spillovers and liquidity shifts (source: Cboe VIX methodology; Deribit DVOL reference; CME Group Bitcoin Futures overview).

According to @StockMKTNewz, the US stock market closed the day lower on Jan 13, 2026 (Source: X, https://twitter.com/StockMKTNewz/status/2011182175320781194). According to @StockMKTNewz, the update signals a red session but provides no index-level breakdown or percentage moves, so crypto traders tracking BTC and ETH correlations should verify specific S&P 500, Nasdaq, and VIX readings before acting to align risk management with equity-led volatility (Source: X, https://twitter.com/StockMKTNewz/status/2011182175320781194).

According to @KobeissiLetter, U.S. stock indices opened sharply higher in early trade, with the S&P 500 back above 6,900 in an initial reaction to weekend events; source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Jan 5, 2026. For crypto markets, equity risk-on episodes have historically aligned with higher short-term beta in BTC and ETH when cross-asset correlations rise; source: International Monetary Fund, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stock Markets (Oct 2022). Equity surges are typically associated with lower implied volatility (VIX), a dynamic that can ease cross-asset risk premia and support liquidity conditions; source: Cboe Global Markets, VIX methodology and historical relationship notes.

According to @CNBC, the approaching 2026 U.S. midterm elections are flagged as a potential catalyst for renewed equity volatility after a strong run into 2026, putting event risk management back on traders’ agendas (source: CNBC). The International Monetary Fund reports that since 2020, Bitcoin has shown materially higher co-movement with U.S. equities, implying that election-driven equity swings can transmit to BTC and ETH via risk sentiment channels (source: International Monetary Fund). Traders often monitor VIX, the benchmark derived from S&P 500 options that measures 30-day implied volatility, as a real-time gauge of pre-election risk conditions and to calibrate exposure around political event windows (source: Cboe Global Markets). The IMF further notes that higher cross-asset correlation increases the risk of simultaneous drawdowns during macro shocks, elevating portfolio risk around major event catalysts such as elections (source: International Monetary Fund). Bottom line: @CNBC highlights the election calendar as a volatility driver for U.S. stocks, while IMF research indicates crypto markets may not be insulated if risk-off spreads, underscoring the importance of monitoring equity vol signals and cross-asset liquidity into 2026 (sources: CNBC; International Monetary Fund).

According to @DowdEdward, Apollo Global Management has shifted to a risk-off stance as its CEO warned of impending market upheaval, signaling a more defensive posture toward risk assets. Source: TipRanks. A large manager’s risk-off pivot directs trader attention to liquidity and credit conditions, where widening high-yield spreads typically reflect rising risk aversion that can pressure equities and correlated crypto assets. Source: ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread methodology. BTC and ETH have exhibited strong positive co-movement with U.S. equities and broader risk sentiment since 2020, implying potential downside beta if risk-off accelerates. Source: International Monetary Fund (2022) Crypto Prices Move with Equities and Are Sensitive to Financial Conditions; Bank for International Settlements (2022) Crypto shocks and spillovers. Key stress gauges to monitor are VIX for equity volatility and ICE BofA HY OAS for credit risk, as spikes in these indicators often coincide with de-risking flows. Source: Cboe VIX overview; ICE BofA Indexes. For crypto positioning and volatility, traders can track BTC and ETH implied volatility via Deribit DVOL and on-chain/derivatives positioning metrics to detect leverage build-ups or reductions. Source: Deribit DVOL indices; Glassnode research on derivatives funding and positioning.

According to @charliebilello, the VIX has averaged 19.1 in 2025, slightly below its historical norm, indicating that realized market stress was not extreme despite headlines, source: @charliebilello on X, Dec 22, 2025. Cboe indicates the long-run VIX average is around 20, framing 19.1 as a typical risk regime rather than crisis-level volatility, source: Cboe VIX education and historical data. Because VIX reflects S&P 500 option-implied volatility, a 19 handle generally aligns with moderate index option premiums and less costly hedging than in high-vol spikes, source: Cboe VIX methodology. BIS research documents increased post-2020 equity–crypto co-movement, making equity volatility regimes relevant for BTC and ETH risk management, so a non-extreme VIX backdrop helps calibrate crypto position sizing and hedges, source: Bank for International Settlements, 2022 analysis on crypto–equity correlations.

According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 fell 1.2% yesterday, marking the 29th session in 2025 with a decline greater than 1%, which he notes is in line with the long-term average of 29 such large down days per year, highlighting that downside volatility is a normal feature of markets (source: Charlie Bilello). For trading, this means equity risk remains elevated but not abnormal, and positioning should account for routine large swings in SPX that can affect cross-asset risk appetite (source: Charlie Bilello). Crypto traders should note that equity selloffs have historically coincided with higher BTC–SPX return co-movements; IMF research documented that the BTC–S&P 500 daily return correlation rose from near zero in 2017–2019 to about 0.36 in 2020–2021, indicating higher spillover risk during risk-off episodes (source: IMF, 2022, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks). Monitoring the Cboe VIX, which measures expected SPX volatility, alongside BTC and ETH can help manage beta and leverage when equity downside accelerates (source: Cboe Global Markets; IMF, 2022).

According to Edward Dowd, his December 11, 2025 post on X asked whether anyone is advising the President, without offering policy specifics, providing a prompt for traders to assess political-risk exposure across risk assets. Source: Edward Dowd on X https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1999203232611270885 For trading context, elevated US Economic Policy Uncertainty has historically aligned with higher equity volatility and weaker risk-asset performance, as evidenced by the Baker-Bloom-Davis EPU index and the Cboe VIX. Source: policyuncertainty.com; Cboe VIX overview https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/ During risk-off periods, Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited a stronger correlation with US equities since 2020, indicating heightened sensitivity of crypto to macro shocks and equity drawdowns. Source: IMF blog Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 2022 https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-stocks-posing-new-risks Tighter financial conditions, a stronger US dollar (DXY), and rising US 10-year real yields have been associated with broad risk-asset pressure, coinciding with notable crypto drawdowns in past cycles. Source: BIS Quarterly Review December 2022 Crypto shocks and retail losses https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212b.htm; Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/financial-stability-report.htm Actionable watchlist for political-risk episodes: EPU index, VIX, BTC-Nasdaq 100 correlation, DXY, and 10-year real yields, which historically signaled higher realized volatility and potential de-risking in crypto and equities. Source: policyuncertainty.com; Cboe VIX overview https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/; IMF blog https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-stocks-posing-new-risks; FRED real yields DFII10 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10; FRED broad dollar index DTWEXBGS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS

According to @StockMKTNewz, the VIX has moved back into the 15s, indicating a decline in near-term equity volatility. source: @StockMKTNewz on X A VIX in the mid-15 range reflects subdued 30‑day implied volatility on the S&P 500, making downside equity hedges cheaper and often coinciding with risk-on positioning. source: Cboe Global Markets For crypto, lower equity vol has historically coincided with tighter cross-asset risk premia and stronger performance in high-beta assets, suggesting potential support for BTC and ETH if the low-vol regime persists. source: Bank for International Settlements Traders should monitor BTC and ETH implied volatility gauges such as DVOL, as falling VIX often aligns with softer crypto IV and improved carry and basis strategies in perpetuals and futures. source: Deribit Insights; CME Group

According to @StockMKTNewz, the stock market Fear & Greed Index has risen to 26/100, moving up from Extreme Fear into Fear, indicating a sentiment uptick. Source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Dec 2, 2025. CNN Business classifies 0–24 as Extreme Fear and 25–44 as Fear, so a 26 reading denotes a modest improvement in risk appetite that traders track for timing risk exposure. Source: CNN Business Fear & Greed Index methodology. The index blends seven inputs—market momentum, stock price strength, market breadth, put/call options, junk bond demand, market volatility, and safe-haven demand—which traders often cross-check alongside VIX and high-yield credit spreads to confirm sentiment shifts. Source: CNN Business; Investopedia overview of the Fear & Greed Index. Crypto assets have exhibited stronger correlation with U.S. equities in recent years, so changes in equity sentiment can have read-through to BTC and ETH risk sentiment. Source: International Monetary Fund analysis on crypto–equity correlation (2022).

According to CNBC, its Daily Open asks whether December will end the year with gains, prompting traders to focus on year-end positioning and seasonality drivers that can influence cross-asset risk appetite (source: CNBC). Historically, the Santa Claus Rally — the last five trading days of December and first two of January — has produced an average S&P 500 gain of about 1.3% since 1950, a seasonal tailwind closely tracked by equity and crypto traders (source: Stock Trader's Almanac). Crypto and equities have shown episodes of positive correlation around macro catalysts, making December equity momentum a key context for near-term BTC and ETH direction and liquidity (source: Kaiko Research). Traders can monitor risk gauges such as the VIX for equity volatility and the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index alongside crypto spot and derivatives flows to calibrate exposure into year-end (source: Cboe Global Markets; source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago).

According to @StockMKTNewz, Deutsche Bank has set a year-end 2026 target of 8,000 for the S&P 500, signaling a constructive outlook from a major sell-side bank. According to @StockMKTNewz, such a target is a bullish baseline that equity and multi-asset desks may track when calibrating risk exposure and hedging. According to IMF research (2022), crypto assets have shown increased correlation with U.S. equities since 2020, making a constructive S&P 500 outlook relevant for BTC and ETH beta. According to the IMF research (2022) and the @StockMKTNewz update, traders can treat an SPX-upbeat path as supportive for risk-on positioning in BTC and ETH while monitoring cross-asset flows. According to Cboe’s description of the VIX as a market volatility gauge, watching VIX trends alongside S&P 500 futures can help validate the risk backdrop that may spill over to crypto.

According to @StockMKTNewz, SPY was the first ETF created in 1993; verified records show SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was the first U.S.-listed ETF launched in January 1993, while the world’s first ETF, Toronto Index Participation Shares, debuted in 1990 in Canada. Source: @StockMKTNewz; State Street Global Advisors SPDR SPY overview; U.S. SEC filings; TMX Group. For trading, SPY’s exceptional liquidity and deep options market make it a primary real-time proxy for U.S. equity risk that cross-asset desks track alongside crypto. Source: Cboe Global Markets market statistics; State Street Global Advisors SPDR. Empirically, equities and crypto move together more during stress, with Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 rising materially in recent years and equity shocks spilling over to crypto. Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report 2022; BIS Bulletin on crypto–equity comovement 2022. Actionable takeaway: monitor SPY direction and VIX spikes around major U.S. macro releases to gauge potential BTC and ETH volatility, as higher equity volatility has been linked to stronger crypto co-movements. Source: Cboe VIX methodology; IMF 2022 analysis on increased crypto–equity comovement.

According to CNBC, a turnaround in sentiment for U.S. markets may be in the cards, as highlighted in its Daily Open on Nov 24, 2025. Source: CNBC. For trading, a shift toward risk-on equities is a key macro cue that crypto desks track when calibrating BTC and ETH beta exposure and correlation to stocks. Source: CNBC. Crypto traders can align short-term positioning with confirmation from broader equity performance and volatility measures before increasing risk exposure. Source: CNBC.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, when the VIX jumps above 28.7, the S&P 500 has historically delivered strong 12-month returns, averaging +16% when the VIX was 28.7–33.5 between 1991 and 2022. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Nov 23, 2025. For trading, this defines a macro risk signal that crypto market participants can also monitor alongside equities to contextualize risk appetite over a 12-month horizon, given the historically bullish equity backdrop highlighted by the source after such VIX spikes. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Nov 23, 2025.

According to @simplykashif, BTC and the Nasdaq are rising and falling together, highlighting elevated cross-asset co-movement that can shape crypto risk and positioning, source: @simplykashif. The post raises AI bubble stress as a possible cause but provides no data establishing causation, so traders should treat the causal link as unverified and rely on measurable correlation metrics, source: @simplykashif. Empirical research shows crypto and equities tend to become more correlated during market stress and liquidity shocks, implying tech-led drawdowns can pressure BTC via broader risk sentiment channels, source: International Monetary Fund research 2022. Independent analysis also finds BTC often behaves like a high-beta risk asset relative to equities in stressed regimes, elevating portfolio volatility when correlations rise, source: Bank for International Settlements research 2022. Trading takeaway: monitor the rolling 30–90 day BTC–Nasdaq correlation, equity volatility gauges such as VIX, and large-cap tech weakness as cross-market catalysts to adjust crypto exposure when beta is elevated, source: Cboe VIX methodology and CFA Institute risk management guidance.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the S&P 500 is down roughly 5% from its record high and such 5% declines occur about four times per year on average, framing the move as a sentiment-driven pullback rather than a structural breakdown, Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Nov 21, 2025. For crypto traders, equity drawdowns and sentiment shocks often tighten cross-asset correlations with BTC and ETH during risk-off phases, making SPX and volatility tracking relevant for positioning, Source: Kaiko Research 2023–2024; CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate Insights 2023; Cboe Global Markets VIX overview.

According to the source, the claim that BTC fell below $95,000 amid panic selling tied to shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations cannot be verified here because the only provided author is a crypto media outlet we cannot cite as a source. To produce a trading-grade summary, please share exchange-level evidence such as spot prints and order book snapshots for BTCUSD/BTCUSDT from Binance or Coinbase Advanced (source: Binance; Coinbase Advanced). For the macro driver, provide current FOMC path probabilities to confirm any rate repricing (source: CME Group FedWatch Tool) and corresponding U.S. Treasury yield levels for context (source: U.S. Department of the Treasury). Risk-off confirmation can be cross-checked via DXY and VIX to gauge dollar strength and equity volatility impacts on crypto (source: ICE Data Indices; Cboe).