According to @godbole17, India’s counterterrorism doctrine has been redefined but Pakistan will adapt by routing operations via third countries such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, or Turkey, sustaining cross-border risk for India, source: Omkar Godbole on X, Nov 22, 2025. He likens this adaptation to the U.S.-China tariff episode where trade rerouted to third countries to circumvent duties, a diversion documented in official data, source: UNCTAD Trade and Development analysis 2019. For traders, previous India-Pakistan escalations in Feb 2019 coincided with a weaker rupee, equity drawdowns, and a spike in India VIX, highlighting sensitivity of Indian assets to security shocks, source: Reuters market report Feb 27, 2019; NSE India VIX data. In crypto, macro risk shocks have increasingly moved BTC and ETH in tandem with equities since 2020, implying potential near-term downside correlation if regional risk aversion rises, source: IMF Blog Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, Jan 2022. Key monitors include USDINR spot and options-implied volatility plus India VIX to gauge stress, with USDINR data from the Reserve Bank of India and volatility metrics from the National Stock Exchange, source: RBI data; NSE India VIX.

According to @CNBC, India’s October goods trade deficit hit an all-time high and beat forecasts as gold imports jumped about 200% year over year, source: CNBC. The Reserve Bank of India notes that a wider goods deficit typically pressures the rupee by widening the current account and lifting dollar demand, source: Reserve Bank of India Annual Report and External Sector assessments. For traders, this backdrop directs focus to USDINR spot and forwards, onshore dollar liquidity, and Indian government bond yields as standard transmission channels, source: Reserve Bank of India Financial Stability Report. Chainalysis identifies India as a top global crypto market by adoption, implying INR volatility can influence INR-quoted BTC and ETH pricing and liquidity, source: Chainalysis 2023 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report. Kaiko research documents periods of positive correlation between BTC and gold, making gold-demand signals relevant for BTC-gold relative value strategies, source: Kaiko Research.