According to @KobeissiLetter, US ADP Private Payrolls reportedly fell by 32,000 jobs in November versus a consensus gain of 10,000 expected. Source: @KobeissiLetter. The author adds that the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to cut rates again, highlighting a dovish policy view tied to the softer labor signal. Source: @KobeissiLetter. For traders, downside surprises in ADP data are often interpreted as dovish for rates and the US dollar, a setup that can be supportive for risk assets such as BTC and ETH during rate-cut repricing episodes. Source: CME FedWatch Tool; Federal Reserve communications on data-dependent policy. Next catalysts to confirm or refute labor softness and its market impact include the official ADP release details and the Bureau of Labor Statistics Nonfarm Payrolls report later this week. Source: ADP Research Institute; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

According to @CNBC, U.S. Treasury yields inched lower as investors awaited further economic data, signaling a wait-and-see stance across markets. According to @CNBC, the move reflects caution ahead of upcoming macro releases that traders monitor for potential shifts in rate expectations and cross-asset volatility.

According to @WatcherGuru, former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly called Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell "incompetent" and "a real dope" in a post shared on X on Dec 2, 2025. Source: @WatcherGuru on X, Dec 2, 2025. The post includes a video clip of the remarks and provides no additional policy details or market data, making this a headline-level development tied to U.S. monetary policy leadership that traders may track for sentiment around USD, Treasury yields, equities, and crypto such as BTC. Source: @WatcherGuru on X, Dec 2, 2025.

According to @KobeissiLetter, Polymarket implies an 81% probability that White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett will be named the next Fed Chair (source: Polymarket via @KobeissiLetter). According to @KobeissiLetter, President Trump stated he has selected the next Fed Chair and will announce it "soon," elevating near-term announcement risk (source: @KobeissiLetter). According to @KobeissiLetter, this prediction-market pricing reflects market positioning into the decision and can be used as a real-time gauge of policy expectations (source: Polymarket odds cited by @KobeissiLetter). According to @KobeissiLetter, a "new era of monetary policy" is coming, and traders tracking BTC and ETH can monitor the Polymarket contract as a live indicator ahead of the announcement (source: @KobeissiLetter and Polymarket).

According to @KobeissiLetter, Redfin data show the U.S. median home sale price rose 2.4% year over year in the four weeks ending November 9 to $393,700, the highest since August (source: Redfin). @KobeissiLetter adds the latest gain is the largest in six months and that prices are up by roughly $18,700 over the past three years (source: Redfin via @KobeissiLetter). Home purchase prices are not directly used in CPI; shelter inflation is instead based on rents and owners’ equivalent rent, which together carry about one-third of headline CPI (source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). Sticky shelter inflation can delay policy easing as the FOMC intends to keep policy restrictive until inflation moves sustainably toward 2%, a macro setup crypto traders in BTC and ETH monitor via rates and USD trends (source: Federal Reserve Board; source: Kaiko Research).

According to @KobeissiLetter, unrealized losses on investment securities at U.S. banks reached $337.1 billion in Q3 2025, marking the 14th consecutive quarter of losses and matching the 2006–2009 streak, citing FDIC data (source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Dec 2, 2025; source: FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile Q3 2025). The FDIC confirms historically elevated unrealized losses driven by higher rates across AFS and HTM portfolios, underscoring persistent interest-rate risk in the banking book (source: FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile Q3 2025). U.S. regulators also flagged elevated interest-rate risk that can pressure capital and lending via AOCI and duration exposure when long-end yields rise (source: OCC Semiannual Risk Perspective, Fall 2025). During the March 2023 U.S. regional bank stress, BTC outperformed traditional risk assets, highlighting bank-stress episodes as a crypto macro catalyst to monitor when IRR pressures re-emerge (source: Kaiko Research, March 2023 banking turmoil analysis).

According to @WatcherGuru, White House advisor Kevin Hassett said he would be happy to serve as Federal Reserve Chair if President Trump selects him (source: @WatcherGuru, Nov 30, 2025). The source does not report a formal nomination, timeline, policy stance, or any market reaction data (source: @WatcherGuru). For trading purposes, treat this as preliminary headline risk until any official nomination or policy guidance is published; the source provides no further confirmation beyond the quoted remark (source: @WatcherGuru).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the average price of a new U.S. single-family home has remained below the price of an existing home for 12 consecutive months, marking the first such stretch in 54 years. Source: The Kobeissi Letter (Nov 27, 2025). For traders, a persistent housing price gap can ease shelter inflation with a lag, and shelter is the largest component in the CPI that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks, shaping rate expectations monitored by the Federal Reserve. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve FOMC statements. Policy repricing typically transmits through Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index, and crypto assets such as BTC and ETH often see elevated volatility around CPI releases and FOMC decisions. Source: Federal Reserve; ICE Data (U.S. Dollar Index); CME Group.

According to @StockMKTNewz, JPMorgan now expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 bps in December, as reported by Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg via @StockMKTNewz on Nov 26, 2025. Kalshi shows an 84% probability of a December rate cut, indicating strong market pricing ahead of the FOMC decision. Source: Kalshi odds quoted by @StockMKTNewz. Crypto traders are watching rate cut odds because shifts in US policy expectations often drive risk sentiment; monitoring Kalshi probabilities and front end Treasury yields can help gauge positioning into the meeting. Source: Kalshi market odds via @StockMKTNewz and Bloomberg rates coverage cited in the same post.

According to @StockMKTNewz, the U.S. recorded a $284.4 billion budget deficit in October 2025, the first month of fiscal 2026, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus of $230 billion by $54.4 billion, or about 23.7 percent. Source: @StockMKTNewz citing Seeking Alpha; Bloomberg. This larger-than-expected shortfall at the start of FY2026 puts focus on Treasury financing needs and rate expectations that traders monitor for impacts on bond yields, the U.S. dollar, and risk sentiment in BTC and ETH. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury financing and issuance practices; @StockMKTNewz.

According to @KobeissiLetter, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said there is a very good chance President Trump announces the next Federal Reserve Chair before Christmas, flagging an accelerated timeline for Fed leadership clarity (source: @KobeissiLetter). Event risk around a Fed Chair announcement typically shifts rate path probabilities in Fed funds futures and front-end U.S. Treasury yields, with spillovers to the U.S. Dollar Index and crypto beta such as BTC and ETH (source: CME FedWatch Tool; U.S. Department of the Treasury data). Traders can monitor Fed funds futures (ZQ), 2Y/10Y Treasury yields, DXY, and BTC/ETH price and options implied volatility into the indicated window to manage exposure (source: CME; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE U.S. Dollar Index; Deribit). Potential setups include short-duration rate volatility hedges and crypto options straddles to capture announcement-driven volatility, with disciplined sizing and risk controls (source: CME; Deribit).

According to @StockMKTNewz, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent told CNBC there is a very good chance President Trump will announce the next Federal Reserve Chair before Christmas to take over after Jerome Powell’s term ends (source: @StockMKTNewz citing CNBC). Powell’s current term as Fed Chair runs through May 2026, defining the handover window for any successor (source: Federal Reserve Board, Board Members: Jerome H. Powell). For trading, earlier clarity on the Chair nomination can recalibrate interest-rate expectations, USD and Treasury yields via the monetary policy transmission channel, with crypto majors like BTC and ETH sensitive given their increased correlation with equities and macro conditions in recent years (sources: Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy and the Economy; International Monetary Fund analysis on rising crypto–equity correlations).

According to @CNBC, U.S. Treasury yields held steady as traders focused on prospects for a Federal Reserve rate cut, keeping attention on interest-rate expectations as the next market catalyst for risk assets, including crypto (source: @CNBC).

According to @StockMKTNewz, Kalshi’s prediction market is pricing roughly a 75% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut the fed funds rate by 25 basis points next month, with the December FOMC statement scheduled for Wednesday, December 10 at 2 PM ET; Source: @StockMKTNewz citing Kalshi. A 25 bp cut would lower the target range by 0.25 percentage points, which historically aligns with easier financial conditions through lower front-end yields; Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System policy implementation framework. For trading, watch DXY, 2-year Treasury yields, and BTC and ETH volatility around the 2 PM ET release as deviations from market-implied odds can trigger sharp moves in risk assets; Source: Federal Reserve release timing and Kalshi-implied probabilities reported by @StockMKTNewz.

According to @CNBC, U.S. Treasury yields edged lower as investors awaited delayed economic data, signaling a cautious risk tone in rates markets (source: CNBC tweet, Nov 24, 2025). Lower long-term yields are associated with looser financial conditions by reducing discount rates and borrowing costs, a dynamic that can support risk assets’ valuations (source: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Report; BIS Quarterly Review). For crypto traders, moves in yields and the U.S. dollar often align with shifts in liquidity and risk appetite that can influence BTC and ETH price momentum and volatility (source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report; Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index). Near term, traders are watching the 10-year yield, DXY, and Fed funds futures-implied path to gauge crypto beta and basis moves in BTC and ETH (source: CME FedWatch Tool; CME Group futures market data).

According to CNBC, a turnaround in sentiment for U.S. markets may be in the cards, as highlighted in its Daily Open on Nov 24, 2025. Source: CNBC. For trading, a shift toward risk-on equities is a key macro cue that crypto desks track when calibrating BTC and ETH beta exposure and correlation to stocks. Source: CNBC. Crypto traders can align short-term positioning with confirmation from broader equity performance and volatility measures before increasing risk exposure. Source: CNBC.

According to @WhiteHouse, the Administration highlighted a powerhouse week including a FIFA task force, a jobs report said to have doubled expectations, a McDonald’s summit, mention of Cristiano Ronaldo, a $1 trillion Saudi investment, freed hostages in Israel, a Department of Education closing, and six months of zero illegal crossings, offering headline signals but no figures or documents in the post for validation, which frames this as event-risk rather than tradeable data until confirmed (source: @WhiteHouse). For positioning, traders should validate each item with primary issuers before making moves: nonfarm payrolls and unemployment from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, any Saudi capital program details from the Saudi Ministry of Investment, border statistics from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, and agency status updates from the U.S. Department of Education (sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Saudi Ministry of Investment; U.S. Customs and Border Protection; U.S. Department of Education). To map potential market impact, monitor rate-cut probabilities via CME FedWatch and USD momentum via the ICE U.S. Dollar Index, while tracking crypto risk via BTC options implied volatility on Deribit and spot liquidity on major exchanges to gauge risk-on/off spillovers around any confirmed releases (sources: CME FedWatch; ICE U.S. Dollar Index; Deribit; major exchange order books). Historical patterns show upside payroll surprises coincide with higher short-end Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, conditions that have pressured high-beta assets including crypto during tightening phases; watch UST 2Y yield reaction and BTC performance around jobs releases to manage delta and optionality (sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve H.15; Macrohistory Database). If details of the cited $1 trillion Saudi investment are confirmed, track sovereign flow channels via the Public Investment Fund disclosures and Saudi Ministry of Investment reports, alongside oil-linked FX and global liquidity gauges that can influence cross-asset beta correlations relevant to crypto (sources: Public Investment Fund; Saudi Ministry of Investment; Bank for International Settlements).

According to @WhiteHouse, an official X post on Nov 21, 2025 labeled Democrats’ coordinated video to the national security apparatus as “seditious and dangerous,” quoting the Press Secretary that breaking the chain of command can lead to chaos and deaths (source: @WhiteHouse on X, Nov 21, 2025). The post provides no policy directives, personnel changes, or legislative actions, so no immediate change to defense posture or economic policy can be confirmed from this message alone (source: @WhiteHouse on X, Nov 21, 2025). For traders, the headline centers on national security and chain-of-command risk, making defense contractors, cybersecurity names, USD and Treasury yields, volatility indices, and crypto macro proxies like BTC and ETH thematically relevant to monitor; however, this post by itself does not supply tradable policy detail (source: @WhiteHouse on X, Nov 21, 2025).

According to @StockMKTNewz, New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed can still cut rates in the near term because current policy is modestly restrictive. Source: @StockMKTNewz. A dovish pivot that lowers policy rates typically eases financial conditions, supporting risk assets like equities and crypto by reducing discount rates. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Monetary Policy Report (June 2023). For trading, watch a decline in the US 2-year Treasury yield and a softer DXY as confirmation signals that often coincide with strength in BTC and ETH. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Monetary Policy Report (June 2023).

According to @godbole17, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is up about 25 bps since the Federal Reserve began cutting rates in September last year, remaining firm despite market hopes for deeper easing. Source: https://twitter.com/godbole17/status/1991788508193939827 Elevated long-end yields tighten financial conditions by raising borrowing costs, a setup that typically pressures risk assets, including crypto. Source: https://www.chicagofed.org/research/financial-conditions-index Crypto assets have shown stronger comovement with equities and global financial conditions since 2020, increasing sensitivity to rate and liquidity dynamics that stem from higher Treasury yields. Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2022/10/11/global-financial-stability-report-october-2022 Traders should monitor the 10-year yield trend as a key macro driver for BTC and ETH performance during periods of sticky rates and constrained liquidity. Source: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2022/10/11/global-financial-stability-report-october-2022