According to Edward Dowd, impromptu talks are occurring amid worries about strains in money markets, highlighted via a FinancialJuice update he shared on X, signaling potential stress in financial plumbing. source: Edward Dowd on X; FinancialJuice on X Money-market strain points to tightening liquidity and elevated funding stress that can affect risk-asset volatility and crypto market depth. source: Bank for International Settlements; Federal Reserve Traders should monitor SOFR versus the policy rate, GC repo levels, and intraday repo spikes for signs of secured funding pressure. source: Federal Reserve; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; DTCC Track ON RRP usage and U.S. Treasury bill auction outcomes (tails and coverage) to gauge cash scarcity or abundance that can spill over to crypto liquidity. source: Federal Reserve; U.S. Department of the Treasury Watch cross-currency basis and dealer balance-sheet capacity as proxies for dollar funding tightness that can constrain leverage and basis trades. source: Bank for International Settlements; Federal Reserve Bank of New York Major stablecoin issuers disclose significant U.S. T-bill holdings, linking crypto market plumbing to money-market dynamics during stress episodes. source: Tether issuer attestations; Circle issuer disclosures For crypto positioning, monitor BTC and ETH perpetual funding rates and CME futures basis to detect de-leveraging or stress transmission. source: CME Group; major crypto derivatives exchange disclosures

According to @AltcoinDaily, the U.S. Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is dropping sharply, indicating cheaper overnight funding for major borrowers and a risk-on liquidity impulse that can lift asset prices (source: @AltcoinDaily). According to @AltcoinDaily, a move like this in SOFR has historically preceded directional moves in Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins within weeks rather than months, framing a near-term trading window focused on liquidity signals over narratives (source: @AltcoinDaily). According to @AltcoinDaily, traders should prioritize liquidity metrics as the key driver over hype when positioning for potential BTC and altcoin volatility following a SOFR-led easing in funding conditions (source: @AltcoinDaily).

According to @business, the U.S. government shutdown is worsening stress in dollar funding markets, adding to a funding market mess that traders must monitor closely for liquidity risk transmission to risk assets, including crypto. source: Bloomberg/@business Funding strains typically manifest as wider T-bill–OIS spreads, volatile SOFR and general collateral repo rates, and dislocations at Treasury bill auctions that lift front-end yields and tighten collateral conditions. sources: Federal Reserve, Financial Stability Report (Oct 2023); BIS Quarterly Review (Mar 2020) When funding markets tighten, broader financial conditions usually deteriorate and high-beta assets have historically underperformed, with BTC and ETH showing increased correlation to risk-off moves as institutional participation has risen. sources: Federal Reserve, Financial Stability Report (Oct 2023); BIS Bulletin No. 45 (2022) Actionable watchlist for traders today: 1–3 month T-bill vs OIS spread, SOFR and GC repo prints, bill auction bid-to-cover and award tails, USD cross-currency basis, and BTC/ETH perpetual funding rates and futures basis as real-time liquidity gauges. sources: U.S. Treasury, Quarterly Refunding documents (2023); Federal Reserve, SOFR releases; CME Group, Bitcoin and Ether futures market education (2023)