According to @OnchainLens on X (Jan 12, 2026), a newly created wallet deposited $9,069 into Polymarket and bought YES shares on the market titled "Will the US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?" (source: @OnchainLens on X). According to @OnchainLens on X (Jan 12, 2026), this order constitutes a single-wallet directional position with $9,069 risk deployed toward a YES outcome in that geopolitical market (source: @OnchainLens on X).

According to @lookonchain, Polymarket trader sb911 made $106K in one month with a low win rate by applying a probability-driven approach to event markets. Source: Lookonchain on X Jan 11 2026 https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2010395416916062573 For trading, this case shows that asymmetric payoff structures and positive expected value can drive outsized PnL in prediction markets even when many positions lose, as characterized by @lookonchain. Source: Lookonchain on X Jan 11 2026 https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2010395416916062573

According to Onchain Lens, a newly created wallet deposited 64,979 dollars into Polymarket and placed two bets, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket. The wallet spent 14,994 dollars on a YES position for the market Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket. It also spent 49,985 dollars on a NO position for the market Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket. The activity is attributed to address 0xBE482CD6e5183BE8767f03b48EBc3FF35769683f on Polymarket, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket.

According to @OnchainDataNerd, two newly active wallets placed sizable YES wagers almost simultaneously on Polymarket’s Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027 market, with one spending $47,760 at 17 cents and another $33,999 at 15 cents, and the bettors are listed as Goopah and AmericanImperialism, source: @OnchainDataNerd on X, Jan 10, 2026. According to @OnchainDataNerd, the combined stake totals about $81,759 and would return $467,199 if the contract resolves YES under Polymarket’s payout rules, source: @OnchainDataNerd on X, Jan 10, 2026. According to Polymarket documentation, binary market prices reflect implied probabilities, so entries at 15-17 cents indicate roughly 15-17 percent market-implied odds at the time of execution, source: Polymarket documentation. According to Polymarket documentation, markets are settled in USDC on the Polygon network, meaning these positions are USDC-denominated and executed on Polygon, source: Polymarket documentation.

According to @lookonchain, a Polymarket profile labeled tiffanytrump lost all seven political and war-related prediction markets for a combined loss of $24,472, impacting trader sentiment around celebrity-named accounts on prediction venues. Source: x.com/lookonchain/status/2009580763252208025, polymarket.com/0x2adc3f79e58a5066d0d50e367b8cea88418b8c20 According to @lookonchain, this result indicates the profile does not have insider information despite the suggestive handle, reinforcing that track records matter more than names for trading decisions. Source: x.com/lookonchain/status/2009580763252208025 According to the source data on Polymarket, the address 0x2adc3f79e58a506d0d50e367b8cea88418b8c20 shows seven losing outcomes and a net loss of $24,472, which is directly verifiable for position-level due diligence. Source: polymarket.com/0x2adc3f79e58a506d0d50e367b8cea88418b8c20

According to @lookonchain, a trader who previously netted $2.07M on $GOAT created a new Polymarket wallet named captainbigballs, with the on-chain identity tied to the earlier profit wallet. Source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2009451299658715568; https://app.cielo.finance/profile/DFLsswviB5berifRS1qFXJhQMdSVkUYmu16hxrVbFtbm The trader spent $10.5K betting that the Iranian regime will fall by Jan 31, with the market showing 14% odds at the time of the wager. Source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2009451299658715568; https://polymarket.com/0xb14F6783F35220d507a9f2680eDCF39A51cc233b On-chain flows indicate the captainbigballs funds originated from the wallet associated with the $2.07M $GOAT gains, linking the profiles across platforms. Source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2009451299658715568; https://app.cielo.finance/profile/DFLsswviB5berifRS1qFXJhQMdSVkUYmu16hxrVbFtbm; https://polymarket.com/0xb14F6783F35220d507a9f2680eDCF39A51cc233b

According to @BullTheoryio, Polymarket shows a 76% probability that Trump’s tariffs will be ruled illegal, signaling elevated event risk for traders ahead of the decision, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue its decision on Friday, creating a defined catalyst window for markets, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, if the Court rules against the tariffs, already collected duties may need to be refunded to importers, pulling cash from the system and worsening government finances, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, the tariffs were projected to reduce the U.S. deficit by nearly $3 trillion over the next decade, and a ruling against them would remove that projected reduction, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, a ruling against Trump does not permanently ban tariffs but would block the current legal structure, while other presidential tools to impose tariffs remain slower, more limited, and less efficient, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, this outcome creates near-term uncertainty, and Trump has argued tariffs support economic strength and stock market performance, which the source warns would be hit if the Court rules against the tariffs, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, removing tariffs over time would reduce government revenue, ease inflation pressures, and increase the likelihood of rate cuts, factors closely watched by risk assets including crypto, source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @OnchainLens, a newly created wallet deposited $15,449 into Polymarket and bought YES on the market 'Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?' with a stated maximum payout of $102,992 if resolved YES, source: Onchain Lens on X, Jan 8, 2026. The stake-to-payout ratio implies an entry price near $0.15 per YES share (~15% implied probability) and roughly a 6.67x potential return, based on the reported numbers and Polymarket’s pricing convention where price approximates probability, source: Onchain Lens on X, Jan 8, 2026; Polymarket documentation on pricing mechanics. Polymarket markets settle in USDC on Polygon, so the flow reflects on-chain USDC activity rather than fiat, which is relevant for tracking liquidity and order flow in prediction markets, source: Polymarket Help Center and documentation. The post provides no evidence of insider information beyond wallet recency and trade size, so traders should treat this as a single large position absent corroborating disclosures, source: Onchain Lens on X, Jan 8, 2026.

According to @CryptoMichNL, 2025 was dominated by prediction markets, and he actively used them during the Dutch elections, the World Championships of Darts, and while trading Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH); source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Jan 8, 2026. Polymarket announced it has been named the Exclusive Prediction Market Partner of the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones, describing itself as The World's Largest Prediction Market; source: Polymarket on X, post ID 2008928601182277721. For BTC and ETH traders, the author underscores direct incorporation of prediction market information into trade execution based on his stated usage during crypto trading; source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Jan 8, 2026.

According to @CoinMarketCap, Polymarket will provide prediction markets data to Dow Jones under a new partnership, source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 8, 2026. The data is expected to appear in Dow Jones media outlets including the Wall Street Journal and Barron's, giving traders an additional mainstream channel to access prediction market probabilities, source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 8, 2026.

According to Lookonchain, a newly created wallet placed a USD 7,000 wager on Polymarket on the market titled “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Jan 31” at 13 percent odds, with the address shown at polymarket.com/0x4128Be7113DBca57DD75e7CD2cd508Dd9FEDdC3c (Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 8, 2026). According to Lookonchain, if the market resolves Yes, the position would yield an estimated USD 48,200 profit, representing a 683 percent gain (Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 8, 2026). According to Lookonchain, the wallet was created roughly one hour before placing the bet (Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 8, 2026).

According to Lookonchain, four newly created wallets simultaneously placed positions on Polymarket’s "US strikes Iran by Jan 31, 2026" contract when the market probability was under 18 percent, highlighting clustered flow in a single geopolitical market. Source: Lookonchain (X, Jan 8, 2026); Polymarket user pages referenced by Lookonchain. According to Lookonchain, these wallets have not made any other bets, indicating a concentrated single-idea exposure rather than diversified speculation. Source: Lookonchain (X, Jan 8, 2026); Polymarket user pages referenced by Lookonchain. According to Lookonchain, the coordinated timing and new-wallet profiles are being flagged as notable activity for traders monitoring prediction-market order flow around geopolitical risk. Source: Lookonchain (X, Jan 8, 2026).

According to @KobeissiLetter, The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones announced an exclusive partnership with Polymarket under which the platform will publish real-time market data on financial event contracts, providing traders with a direct live feed of event pricing for time-sensitive strategies (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to the source, Polymarket announced an exclusive partnership with Dow Jones and The Wall Street Journal on Jan 7, 2026, source: social media announcement dated Jan 7, 2026. The announcement post does not disclose integration scope, launch timeline, or financial terms, which limits immediate trading visibility for prediction-market participants, source: same announcement.

According to @lookonchain, a newly created wallet address 0xA6d8b868cA2EA6e27b49Cb8b03747234502Ec5dF placed a $17.1K position on Polymarket two hours after creation, betting on No change in Fed interest rates after the January 2026 meeting. According to Polymarket, the targeted contract is the market titled No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting, indicating a position that post-January 2026 FOMC rates remain unchanged. According to @lookonchain, the trade timing aligns with a fresh address setup, highlighting a single-address directional wager. According to Polymarket, traders can monitor that market’s price and liquidity to track evolving rate-expectation positioning relevant for crypto risk management.

According to @lookonchain, Polymarket trader 'ricosuave666' returned after roughly seven months of inactivity and spent 8,198 dollars to bet on the market titled Israel strikes Iran, highlighting renewed positioning in a high-impact geopolitical contract for prediction market participants (source: @lookonchain on X; source: polymarket.com/@ricosuave666?tab=activity). According to @lookonchain, the same account’s Israel-related wagers placed when he joined seven months ago were all profitable, which the source flagged while explicitly posing the insider question without making an assertion (source: @lookonchain on X). According to @lookonchain, this wallet-specific flow is being surfaced for traders monitoring on-chain prediction market activity around Israel-Iran escalation risk, and the related transactions can be reviewed directly on the provided Polymarket profile activity page for verification and context (source: @lookonchain on X; source: polymarket.com/@ricosuave666?tab=activity).

According to @OnchainDataNerd citing @thepolynerd_, three newly created Polymarket accounts are alleged to be coordinating trades tied to the Infinex sale, suggesting potential insider activity. Source: @OnchainDataNerd; @thepolynerd_. According to @OnchainDataNerd citing @thepolynerd_, the sale reportedly started slowly due to strict KYC and a $2.5K per-user cap, with market expectations initially clustered in the $2–3M range. Source: @OnchainDataNerd; @thepolynerd_. According to @OnchainDataNerd citing @thepolynerd_, momentum then flipped as odds on higher targets surged, with the $5M bracket rising from about 20% to roughly 70% and large orders flowing into the $3M, $5M, and $10M milestones. Source: @OnchainDataNerd; @thepolynerd_. According to @OnchainDataNerd citing @thepolynerd_, the three flagged accounts were opened one day ago, showed similar bet ratios into the $5M committed pot, and tapered margin at higher targets to maximize profit, which the source characterizes as suspicious behavior. Source: @OnchainDataNerd; @thepolynerd_. According to @OnchainDataNerd citing @thepolynerd_, this repricing to a ~70% market-implied probability for the $5M outcome materially shifts expectations for the sale’s size and signals that traders relying on Polymarket odds should account for potential signal distortion if coordinated activity is present per the allegation. Source: @OnchainDataNerd; @thepolynerd_.

According to CoinMarketCap, Polymarket has partnered with Parcl to launch real estate prediction markets that let users bet on housing price movements across major US cities. source: CoinMarketCap tweet dated Jan 6, 2026. According to CoinMarketCap, these markets settle using daily index data, creating defined daily resolution for positions tied to city-level home price changes. source: CoinMarketCap tweet dated Jan 6, 2026. According to CoinMarketCap, the integration enables traders to express directional views on specific urban housing indices with daily-settled outcomes. source: CoinMarketCap tweet dated Jan 6, 2026.

According to Bubblemaps, an alleged Polymarket insider wallet received approximately 250 SOL sourced from Coinbase, and a similar SOL deposit was made into Coinbase one day earlier that the post describes as a 99% match, source: Bubblemaps on X, Jan 5, 2026. Bubblemaps further alleges the earlier Coinbase deposit is linked to a WLFI-associated wallet and concludes the two wallets are connected, source: Bubblemaps on X, Jan 5, 2026. The post centers on exchange inflow patterns and wallet linkage involving SOL, a Polymarket insider wallet, Coinbase, and a WLFI-linked address, with no independent confirmation from Coinbase or Polymarket included in the post, source: Bubblemaps on X, Jan 5, 2026. Traders tracking SOL and WLFI flows may note the alleged linkage and Coinbase inflow pattern highlighted by Bubblemaps for on-chain monitoring, source: Bubblemaps on X, Jan 5, 2026.

According to @EvgenyGaevoy, insider trading on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi should not be normalized, and he states he will think less of those who engage in it, signaling reputational risk for market participants, source: X post by @EvgenyGaevoy, Jan 5, 2026. He publicly endorses @karbonbased’s guidance that if you possess material non-public information obtained through private channels, you should not trade the related market, source: X post by @EvgenyGaevoy, Jan 5, 2026; X post by @karbonbased, Jan 5, 2026. The guidance further warns that relying on a technicality that insider trading rules do not apply to CFTC derivatives is unlikely to hold up and may carry criminal risk, including prison, source: X post by @karbonbased, Jan 5, 2026; supported by X post by @EvgenyGaevoy, Jan 5, 2026. Trading takeaway: abstain from executing or signaling trades on Polymarket or Kalshi when in possession of material non-public information to mitigate legal exposure and reputational damage, source: X post by @EvgenyGaevoy, Jan 5, 2026; X post by @karbonbased, Jan 5, 2026.