According to @lookonchain, two Polymarket sports-market traders repeatedly bought contracts at 48–57¢ and lost nearly $10M in less than a month, highlighting the risk of oversized positions near even odds, source: @lookonchain. Trader 0x4924 logged 346 predictions with a 46.24% win rate and a realized PnL of -$5.96M over 24 days, source: @lookonchain; source: polymarket.com/0x492442eab586f242b53bda933fd5de859c8a3782. User bossoskil1 made 65 predictions with a 41.54% win rate and -$4.04M PnL in 11 days, source: @lookonchain; source: polymarket.com/0xa5ea13a81d2b7e8e424b182bdc1db08e756bd96a. @lookonchain notes that ~50¢ pricing reflects coin-flip odds, so betting big accelerates drawdowns and produces negative expectancy when win rates stay below 50%, source: @lookonchain.

According to @lookonchain, a newly created wallet labeled "mutualdelta" wagered $40,000 on the Polymarket contract "US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026" and lost the entire stake when the market settled against the bet, resulting in a -100% return; source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011743341348786436; https://polymarket.com/0xaa6a2beda1ad8d5b40b6af71c4b6d075fa783c59. According to Polymarket’s market page and @lookonchain’s post, the 'Yes' side paid out zero at resolution, confirming a full $40,000 loss for the wallet "mutualdelta"; source: https://polymarket.com/0xaa6a2beda1ad8d5b40b6af71c4b6d075fa783c59; https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011743341348786436.

According to @CoinMarketCap, Ukraine has blocked Polymarket under unlicensed gambling laws and added the domain to the national ban registry (source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 15, 2026). Authorities criticized the platform for hosting bets on outcomes related to the Russian invasion, signaling stricter oversight of prediction markets (source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 15, 2026). Polymarket is now restricted in 34 countries, including France, Germany, and the UK, limiting platform access for traders in those jurisdictions (source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 15, 2026).

According to Lookonchain on X on Jan 15, 2026, smart trader hai15617 reused the same approach to trade short-term Bitcoin markets and earned another $44.5K. According to Lookonchain, the trader executed 24 predictions in one day with 8 winners, achieving a 33.33% win rate and total profits of $136.8K. According to Lookonchain, after joining Polymarket and placing 10 predictions, one single trade produced $99,779 in profit (+887%), offsetting multiple 100% losing positions. According to Lookonchain, the strategy does not predict BTC direction; it targets extreme short-term mispricing on Polymarket and deploys larger size when odds swing too far, where pricing errors matter more than win rate. According to Lookonchain, another user reportedly earned $92.3K within hours using the same mispricing strategy, underscoring the trading edge in prediction-market arbitrage around BTC volatility.

According to @CryptoMichNL, prediction markets are a simple way to express options-like BTC trades where market odds map directly to probability and potential payout. Source: @CryptoMichNL, X, Jan 14, 2026. He states that when BTC is at $90K, the market-implied chance of hitting $120K within a month is below 2%, but if BTC crawls toward $100K those odds increase to 5-7% on Polymarket. Source: @CryptoMichNL, X, Jan 14, 2026. He adds that this shift in odds can translate into a quick 2-4x return on a yes-position if the $120K outcome is realized before month-end. Source: @CryptoMichNL, X, Jan 14, 2026.

According to @lookonchain, a trader using a mispricing-focused strategy on Polymarket earned about $92.3K within hours by exploiting short-term odds dislocations (source: @lookonchain). The trader “hai15617” joined today and made 10 predictions on Polymarket, per the source (source: @lookonchain). One trade delivered $99,779 in profit, an 887% return, which offset multiple 100% losing positions and still locked in gains overall (source: @lookonchain). The method did not rely on predicting Bitcoin (BTC) direction; instead, it targeted extreme short-term pricing errors with large position sizing when odds swung too far (source: @lookonchain). In this case, profitability was driven more by pricing errors than by win rate on Polymarket (source: @lookonchain).

According to @lookonchain, a Polymarket trader lost $2.36M in 8 days after making 53 predictions with 25 wins, 28 losses, and a 47.2% win rate. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, the trader focused on sports markets (NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA), frequently traded spread markets, bought positions mostly at $0.40–$0.60, placed very large bets of $200K to over $1M, and held to settlement with no hedging or scaling. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, winning trades typically returned +60% to +150% while losing trades settled at $0 (-100%), allowing just two or three losses to erase prior gains. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, with this payoff structure, a 47.2% win rate was not sustainable in high-variance spread markets. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929 According to @lookonchain, the key lesson is that strict position limits and risk management matter more than conviction because a few wrong outcomes can destroy an entire account in prediction markets. Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 13, 2026: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011002765959667929

According to @OnchainLens, two newly created wallets bought YES shares in Polymarket’s Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 market, with Regimehasfallen spending $30,000 and thecomplicatedguy spending $20,000 while still holding $20,038 USDC on-chain, and @OnchainLens stated the latter is likely to buy more; source: @OnchainLens on X (Jan 12, 2026) and Polymarket profile pages at polymarket.com/@Regimehasfallen and polymarket.com/@thecomplicatedguy.

According to @lookonchain, a newly created wallet labeled Regimehasfallen spent 30,000 USD to bet on the Polymarket contract titled Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31, with the transaction and label referenced in their January 12, 2026 post on X (source: @lookonchain on X, Jan 12, 2026). According to the referenced Polymarket market page, this contract is hosted on Polymarket, an on-chain prediction market where individual addresses trade event outcomes (source: Polymarket market page linked by @lookonchain). According to the Polymarket market interface, traders can monitor that market page for live pricing and liquidity to track positioning related to this event (source: Polymarket market page).

According to @OnchainLens on X (Jan 12, 2026), a newly created wallet deposited $9,069 into Polymarket and bought YES shares on the market titled "Will the US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?" (source: @OnchainLens on X). According to @OnchainLens on X (Jan 12, 2026), this order constitutes a single-wallet directional position with $9,069 risk deployed toward a YES outcome in that geopolitical market (source: @OnchainLens on X).

According to @lookonchain, a new wallet named khami placed a Polymarket position that pays out if at least one event occurs by March 31, 2026: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin BTC, MicroStrategy announces holding 750,000 plus BTC, MicroStrategy announces bankruptcy, or MicroStrategy MSTR is added to the S&P 500, source: Lookonchain on X https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2010521834861793460; Polymarket https://polymarket.com/0x914e244ae32c19982d96ab50b3b55e487d1feace. This market centralizes event risk around MSTR and BTC, enabling traders to hedge or speculate on MicroStrategy balance sheet actions, index inclusion, or solvency timelines through the contract’s settlement window to 2026-03-31, source: Polymarket https://polymarket.com/0x914e244ae32c19982d96ab50b3b55e487d1feace.

According to @lookonchain, Polymarket trader sb911 made $106K in one month with a low win rate by applying a probability-driven approach to event markets. Source: Lookonchain on X Jan 11 2026 https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2010395416916062573 For trading, this case shows that asymmetric payoff structures and positive expected value can drive outsized PnL in prediction markets even when many positions lose, as characterized by @lookonchain. Source: Lookonchain on X Jan 11 2026 https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2010395416916062573

According to Onchain Lens, a newly created wallet deposited 64,979 dollars into Polymarket and placed two bets, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket. The wallet spent 14,994 dollars on a YES position for the market Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket. It also spent 49,985 dollars on a NO position for the market Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket. The activity is attributed to address 0xBE482CD6e5183BE8767f03b48EBc3FF35769683f on Polymarket, source: Onchain Lens on X; Polymarket.

According to @OnchainDataNerd, two newly active wallets placed sizable YES wagers almost simultaneously on Polymarket’s Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027 market, with one spending $47,760 at 17 cents and another $33,999 at 15 cents, and the bettors are listed as Goopah and AmericanImperialism, source: @OnchainDataNerd on X, Jan 10, 2026. According to @OnchainDataNerd, the combined stake totals about $81,759 and would return $467,199 if the contract resolves YES under Polymarket’s payout rules, source: @OnchainDataNerd on X, Jan 10, 2026. According to Polymarket documentation, binary market prices reflect implied probabilities, so entries at 15-17 cents indicate roughly 15-17 percent market-implied odds at the time of execution, source: Polymarket documentation. According to Polymarket documentation, markets are settled in USDC on the Polygon network, meaning these positions are USDC-denominated and executed on Polygon, source: Polymarket documentation.

According to @lookonchain, a Polymarket profile labeled tiffanytrump lost all seven political and war-related prediction markets for a combined loss of $24,472, impacting trader sentiment around celebrity-named accounts on prediction venues. Source: x.com/lookonchain/status/2009580763252208025, polymarket.com/0x2adc3f79e58a5066d0d50e367b8cea88418b8c20 According to @lookonchain, this result indicates the profile does not have insider information despite the suggestive handle, reinforcing that track records matter more than names for trading decisions. Source: x.com/lookonchain/status/2009580763252208025 According to the source data on Polymarket, the address 0x2adc3f79e58a506d0d50e367b8cea88418b8c20 shows seven losing outcomes and a net loss of $24,472, which is directly verifiable for position-level due diligence. Source: polymarket.com/0x2adc3f79e58a506d0d50e367b8cea88418b8c20

According to @lookonchain, a trader who previously netted $2.07M on $GOAT created a new Polymarket wallet named captainbigballs, with the on-chain identity tied to the earlier profit wallet. Source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2009451299658715568; https://app.cielo.finance/profile/DFLsswviB5berifRS1qFXJhQMdSVkUYmu16hxrVbFtbm The trader spent $10.5K betting that the Iranian regime will fall by Jan 31, with the market showing 14% odds at the time of the wager. Source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2009451299658715568; https://polymarket.com/0xb14F6783F35220d507a9f2680eDCF39A51cc233b On-chain flows indicate the captainbigballs funds originated from the wallet associated with the $2.07M $GOAT gains, linking the profiles across platforms. Source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2009451299658715568; https://app.cielo.finance/profile/DFLsswviB5berifRS1qFXJhQMdSVkUYmu16hxrVbFtbm; https://polymarket.com/0xb14F6783F35220d507a9f2680eDCF39A51cc233b

According to @BullTheoryio, Polymarket shows a 76% probability that Trump’s tariffs will be ruled illegal, signaling elevated event risk for traders ahead of the decision, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue its decision on Friday, creating a defined catalyst window for markets, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, if the Court rules against the tariffs, already collected duties may need to be refunded to importers, pulling cash from the system and worsening government finances, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, the tariffs were projected to reduce the U.S. deficit by nearly $3 trillion over the next decade, and a ruling against them would remove that projected reduction, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, a ruling against Trump does not permanently ban tariffs but would block the current legal structure, while other presidential tools to impose tariffs remain slower, more limited, and less efficient, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, this outcome creates near-term uncertainty, and Trump has argued tariffs support economic strength and stock market performance, which the source warns would be hit if the Court rules against the tariffs, source: @BullTheoryio. According to @BullTheoryio, removing tariffs over time would reduce government revenue, ease inflation pressures, and increase the likelihood of rate cuts, factors closely watched by risk assets including crypto, source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @OnchainLens, a newly created wallet deposited $15,449 into Polymarket and bought YES on the market 'Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?' with a stated maximum payout of $102,992 if resolved YES, source: Onchain Lens on X, Jan 8, 2026. The stake-to-payout ratio implies an entry price near $0.15 per YES share (~15% implied probability) and roughly a 6.67x potential return, based on the reported numbers and Polymarket’s pricing convention where price approximates probability, source: Onchain Lens on X, Jan 8, 2026; Polymarket documentation on pricing mechanics. Polymarket markets settle in USDC on Polygon, so the flow reflects on-chain USDC activity rather than fiat, which is relevant for tracking liquidity and order flow in prediction markets, source: Polymarket Help Center and documentation. The post provides no evidence of insider information beyond wallet recency and trade size, so traders should treat this as a single large position absent corroborating disclosures, source: Onchain Lens on X, Jan 8, 2026.

According to @CryptoMichNL, 2025 was dominated by prediction markets, and he actively used them during the Dutch elections, the World Championships of Darts, and while trading Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH); source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Jan 8, 2026. Polymarket announced it has been named the Exclusive Prediction Market Partner of the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones, describing itself as The World's Largest Prediction Market; source: Polymarket on X, post ID 2008928601182277721. For BTC and ETH traders, the author underscores direct incorporation of prediction market information into trade execution based on his stated usage during crypto trading; source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Jan 8, 2026.

According to @CoinMarketCap, Polymarket will provide prediction markets data to Dow Jones under a new partnership, source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 8, 2026. The data is expected to appear in Dow Jones media outlets including the Wall Street Journal and Barron's, giving traders an additional mainstream channel to access prediction market probabilities, source: @CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 8, 2026.