According to CoinMarketCap, a January 3, 2026 post highlights a new report asking whether quantum computing could put Bitcoin at risk as early as 2026 and links to the analysis (source: CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 3, 2026). Bitcoin’s signatures use ECDSA over secp256k1, which NIST notes would be vulnerable to a sufficiently large, fault‑tolerant quantum computer, while such machines do not exist today; NIST has released draft post‑quantum standards ML‑KEM and ML‑DSA to guide migration (sources: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide; NIST Post‑Quantum Cryptography overview 2024; NIST draft FIPS 203 and 204, 2024). U.S. policy guidance under NSA’s CNSA 2.0 directs federal systems to begin PQC transition from 2025 with completion targets into the early 2030s, indicating urgency but not an immediate break in 2026 (source: NSA CNSA 2.0, 2022). For trading, watch the full CoinMarketCap findings, NIST standard finalizations, and any Bitcoin Core developer proposals to mitigate exposed public keys as catalysts for BTC risk repricing (sources: CoinMarketCap on X, Jan 3, 2026; NIST 2024 PQC standards process; Bitcoin developer mailing list).

According to BitMEX Research, the Bitcoin community was already debating quantum-computing risks in January 2011 on Bitcointalk, highlighting long-standing awareness of potential cryptographic threats to BTC security, Source: BitMEX Research post on X dated Dec 23, 2025, Bitcointalk forum discussion. The core technical issue is that Bitcoin’s ECDSA signatures would be vulnerable to sufficiently powerful quantum computers via Shor’s algorithm, prompting global efforts to adopt post-quantum cryptography, Source: NIST Post-Quantum Cryptography project. Traders evaluating tail risk can track two concrete signals grounded in this context, the maturation of NIST-standardized post-quantum signature schemes and any Bitcoin developer discussions about quantum-resistant signature options, as proxies for mitigation progress rather than immediate protocol change, Source: NIST Post-Quantum Cryptography project, Bitcointalk forum discussion.

According to @cas_abbe, Algorand has executed live quantum-secure transactions on mainnet, confirming real-world deployment rather than a roadmap item, which is directly relevant to ALGO fundamental analysis and security-driven trading theses, source: Cas Abbé (X post, Dec 9, 2025). The source states Algorand protects chain history with quantum-secure signatures and now supports creating new accounts and transactions in a quantum‑resistant way, source: Cas Abbé (X post, Dec 9, 2025). Falcon is identified as the selected post‑quantum digital signature standard by NIST, reinforcing the credibility of the chosen primitive for Algorand’s implementation, source: NIST Post‑Quantum Cryptography standardization program. The source characterizes Algorand as ahead of other chains on quantum security, positioning ALGO with a distinct security narrative that traders can factor into comparative chain analysis, source: Cas Abbé (X post, Dec 9, 2025).

According to Charles Edwards (@caprioleio), quantum computing is Bitcoin’s biggest existential threat and, once a replacement is selected, the ecosystem would have roughly 12 months to migrate, placing urgency on protocol choices that traders should monitor; source: Charles Edwards on X, Aug 21, 2025. Bitcoin relies on ECDSA over secp256k1 for transaction signatures, which is vulnerable to sufficiently powerful quantum attacks such as Shor’s algorithm, making signature replacement the core mitigation; source: NIST Post-Quantum Cryptography program and Bitcoin.org Developer Guide. NIST has standardized post-quantum signature schemes including CRYSTALS-Dilithium and SPHINCS+, offering candidate pathways for migration that Bitcoin developers could evaluate; source: NIST Post-Quantum Cryptography standards 2022–2024. Traders should watch for any Bitcoin Improvement Proposal introducing post-quantum signatures and activation timelines, as protocol changes require broad consensus and staged rollout; source: Bitcoin Improvement Proposals repository. Coins reveal public keys when spent, so UTXOs with exposed public keys carry higher quantum-theft risk under a breakthrough, informing on-chain risk assessment; source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide and Bitcoin Wiki.