According to @danheld, the core bet is unlimited fiat supply competing for a fixed 21 million BTC, putting Bitcoin’s programmed scarcity at the center of the trade thesis. Source: @danheld (X, Dec 11, 2025). Bitcoin’s maximum supply is hard-capped at 21 million by consensus rules, with issuance reduced via halvings every 210,000 blocks until roughly 2140. Source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide and BIP-42 (Bitcoin Core). Fiat money supply is elastic and can be expanded by central banks through tools like asset purchases and lending facilities, affecting purchasing power via policy and credit growth. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System education resources and IMF monetary policy primers. For trading, a fixed BTC supply means marginal demand from regulated vehicles such as US spot BTC ETFs can have outsized price impact when liquidity expands. Source: U.S. SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan 10, 2024 and related SEC orders. Effective tradable float may be lower than 21 million due to provably lost or long-dormant coins, reducing immediate market supply. Source: Chainalysis estimate of 2.78 to 3.79 million lost coins (2017 report). Key liquidity indicators traders monitor for BTC risk exposure include global M2 growth, USD strength via DXY, and U.S. real yields from TIPS. Source: World Bank Broad Money (M2) dataset, ICE U.S. Dollar Index methodology, and U.S. Treasury real yield data. Research frameworks emphasize liquidity and real yields as major drivers of Bitcoin performance, supporting process-driven entries and sizing beyond narratives alone. Source: Fidelity Digital Assets Bitcoin First (2022) and ARK Invest Bitcoin Monthly research.

According to Crypto Rover, a return of quantitative easing could trigger an outsized rally in altcoins, stating that once QE returns, altcoins will go ballistic. Source: Crypto Rover on X https://twitter.com/cryptorover/status/1987248005100290050. For confirmation, traders should watch for renewed asset purchases or balance sheet expansion in the Federal Reserve H.4.1 release and FOMC communications. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System H.4.1 statistical release and FOMC statements. Liquidity proxies to track include M2 money stock acceleration and central bank balance sheet growth alongside crypto market breadth and dominance shifts. Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data for M2 and Board of Governors balance sheet data; CoinGecko global crypto market data. Historically, the 2020-2021 QE phase coincided with strong crypto performance, underscoring altcoins sensitivity to liquidity while not guaranteeing future results. Source: Board of Governors balance sheet series and CoinGecko historical price data. Until an official QE program is announced by a major central bank, the thesis remains conditional rather than a confirmed trading signal. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System policy communications.

According to @rovercrc, U.S. money supply is rising and Bitcoin could be the next beneficiary. According to Federal Reserve Economic Data FRED, the M2 series M2SL and its 3‑month annualized trend are the primary confirmations traders should check before positioning. According to Fidelity Digital Assets research, Bitcoin tends to perform better when liquidity expands and real yields fall, so traders can monitor M2 momentum alongside 10‑year TIPS real yields and rate‑cut odds from CME FedWatch to time entries. According to Glassnode analytics, changes in exchange flows and stablecoin supply growth can validate whether macro liquidity is actually rotating into crypto risk assets like BTC.

According to @milesdeutscher, the BTC price is closely tracking the direction of global M2 liquidity, with a BTC vs M2 chart playing out even if not point-for-point exact. Source: @milesdeutscher, X, Aug 12, 2025. He describes Bitcoin as a liquidity sponge, implying that expansions in global liquidity tend to support BTC while liquidity tightening creates headwinds. Source: @milesdeutscher, X, Aug 12, 2025. For trading, this positions global M2 trend as a macro indicator to monitor for BTC directional bias and risk management, aligning BTC with the global liquidity cycle. Source: @milesdeutscher, X, Aug 12, 2025.