According to André Dragosch, BTC’s recent performance has not been driven by macro factors, with the majority of the downside attributed to coin-specific long-term holder selling, source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 30, 2025. This LTH distribution helps explain the divergence between Bitcoin and major assets like the Magnificent 7 equities and Gold, which are pricing a benign macro backdrop, source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 30, 2025. For trading decisions, the source indicates coin-specific flow dynamics are more relevant than macro prints in the near term when assessing BTC direction, source: André Dragosch on X, Dec 30, 2025.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bloomberg Economics’ in-house quant model indicates BTC’s 2025 downside has been largely driven by crypto-specific factors rather than macro variables, with macro conditions remaining supportive throughout the year, source: @Andre_Dragosch citing Bloomberg Economics. According to @Andre_Dragosch, this aligns with the view that idiosyncratic long-term holder (LTH) selling was the primary driver of BTC’s underperformance versus a positive macro backdrop, source: @Andre_Dragosch citing Bloomberg Economics. According to @Andre_Dragosch, traders assessing near-term BTC risk should emphasize crypto-internal flows—especially LTH distribution/selling—over macro shocks given the model’s attribution, source: @Andre_Dragosch citing Bloomberg Economics.

According to @Andre_Dragosch on X (Dec 7, 2025), long-term holder selling has suppressed Bitcoin’s price below its fundamental value in both absolute and relative terms, indicating a supply-driven discount that is relevant for trading decisions [source: X post by @Andre_Dragosch, Dec 7, 2025]. According to @Andre_Dragosch, this dynamic underscores the impact of LTH distribution on BTC’s near-term pricing versus fundamentals, a factor traders should monitor when sizing positions and managing risk [source: X post by @Andre_Dragosch, Dec 7, 2025].